Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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Why the weatherman is often wrong

January 28th, 2013 by Matthew Leach

I’ve heard the joke a thousand times, “Oh, you want to be a weatherman, huh? That must be the only job where you can be wrong 90% of the time and still be employed.”

Sheesh, that’s a little harsh! While certainly nowhere near missing 90% of their forecasts, meteorologists all around the world struggle to understand and even explain why the forecast goes sour. Brigham Young University engineering professor Julie Crockett says something called “internal waves” are to blame, and that once we understand the nature of these waves forecasts will become more accurate.  Check out the video below:

You can also check out the story in text form here. What are your thoughts? Could Ms. Crockett’s observations be the key to revolutionizing the way we predict the weather?

All I can say is I hope these internal waves don’t mess up the weekend forecast, because I think all of you will enjoy what the seven day forecast has to say. In the mean time we have a little more rain to get through.

Tuesday will be mostly cloudy and seasonable with highs in the mid 40s. A front moves through early Wednesday morning, although the southwestern portion of the Kitsap Peninsula will be shadowed from the worst of it. Central and north Kitsap, however, will be in for another rainy day.

Showers linger on Thursday before literally every drop of rain goes *POOF* on the weather models and we’re in for a dry Friday, Saturday, and most of Sunday. Highs will be nudging 50 degrees as well. We have been so sun starved that I’m betting I’ll see lots of picnics this weekend. The ridge of high pressure flattens late Sunday, paving the way for some light rain through Monday.

So just remember: If my forecast for this weekend ends up being wrong, it’s not my fault. It’s the internal waves! ;)

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

1-28-2013

 

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3 Responses to “Why the weatherman is often wrong”

  1. Lisa Says:

    I think you and Ms. Crockett would get along very well! How soon can you transfer to BYU Provo? ;)

  2. Shawn Says:

    Matt,seems like this has been (so far) a pretty mild winter by our standards.

    As spring is around the corner,I really hope we get at least some snow that sticks around for a few days.

  3. Matthew Leach Says:

    Actually Shawn, it has been a fairly cold winter! Even much colder than normal, with above average precipitation. We just haven’t had any arctic air to make it feel colder.

    It also isn’t rare at all to have late February/March snowstorms. Historically we tend to do pretty well, so I wouldn’t throw in the towel quite yet! :)

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