Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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Get ready for some heavy rain and colder temperatures

January 5th, 2013 by Matthew Leach

chance of snow

In the weather world, 2013 has started off slow and seasonable. Latest weather models indicate that may not be the case much longer as we dive deeper into January. Remember when we talked about the implications of a neutral weather year (ie no La Nina or El Nino pattern)? This winter has lived up to its “wildcard” name, and it will continue to drag surprises under our feet from time to time.

There are several weather systems to keep an eye on, the first being tomorrow afternoon. Moderate, steady rain and warmer temperatures will move into the area around 1-2 pm tomorrow and last most of the night. Most areas around the peninsula will add up to anywhere from 0.30”-0.65” of rain by Monday morning. The flow switches westerly throughout the day Monday signaling a small rain shadow for large portions of the Kitsap peninsula.

TUESDAY: HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND

Tuesday will be the day to watch in terms of precipitation. Locally heavy rain (most especially along the Hood Canal) will spread into the area early Tuesday and persist much of the day. How heavy? Hood Canal communities may come away with anywhere from 2-4” of rain before the event is over. Models are also hinting at some strong wind as well, although this will need to be monitored before more stock is put into how much wind and where. Temperatures will be seasonable, reaching the mid 40s.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: COLDER, BUT WE ARE LOSING MOISTURE

Yes the rumors are true: we will be getting a little colder around here. However, nothing at this point is looking really impressive. Latest forecast models show little precipitation in the Wednesday-Saturday time frame with temperatures dropping into the 30s and lower 40s with overnight lows in the upper 20s/lower 30s.

So yes, it will be getting colder, but so far it doesn’t appear we’ll rival late December’s snow or cold temperatures. Right now it would be safe to bet on a few rain/snow showers late Wednesday night through next weekend, with an increased chance of sticking snow along the Hood Canal Friday/Saturday. Again, temperatures will still be marginal and we lose a lot of moisture, but the potential is there.

LONG RANGE: SOME SERIOUSLY COLD AIR COMING OUR WAY?

Although this upcoming week/weekend doesn’t look too prime for any dramatic snow or cold events, that doesn’t mean there’s nothing in the future to keep an eye on. Longer range forecast models (6-14 days out) have consistently suggested a colder, but drier weather pattern to take hold by week 3 of this month. While still too early to discuss details, consistency in the general theme of entering a fairly cold pattern in mid January has been impressive.

As always, I’ll keep my eye on these storms for you. In the meantime, be prepared for the next 72 hours to feature wet and potentially windy weather around here.

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

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