So when exactly was the last time we registered a temperature above 50 degrees? It’s been quite chilly lately, but surely our goose-bumped skin has been exposed to such mild weather sometime recently!

Actually, no, not at all. But before I reveal the specific day we last saw 51+ temperatures, here’s a little representation of what the temperature spread has been since November 1st:

NUMBER OF DAYS WITH THE FOLLOWING TEMPERATURE READINGS SINCE NOVEMBER 1ST, 2012 (Bremerton Airport):

• 50+°= 12 (First six days of November being 51+ degrees, and then six other days during the past three months with a 50 degree reading)
• 40+°= 57
• 30+°= 22
• 20+° (low temperature)= 26
• 10°+ (low temperature)= 4

It shouldn’t be surprising that we registered most days 40° and above, but what should stand out even more is how often we hit the 30s, 20s, and teens, and how infrequently we’ve been over 50. The Bremerton area usually averages about 8 days with highs in the 30s during the winter and we’ve nearly tripled it.

And now we wait in suspense. The weather this weekend is a real tricky one. If we reach 51 degrees or more tomorrow, that will be the first time since………November 6th, 2012! We will have gone almost three whole months without seeing the big 5-0 on the seven day forecast, but the first weekend of February is taking on the challenge.

A ridge of high pressure is building, but we run the same risk of seeing low clouds and fog Friday night into Saturday morning. The little fly  in the ointment is that the fog doesn’t completely burn off on Saturday, which could keep our temperatures in the upper 30s/lower 40s a good part of the day. If skies clear, we could see highs easily hit the low 50s. For now, I expect skies to become at least partly sunny by Saturday afternoon with highs just over the 50 degree mark.

Sunday is another 50+ contender before skies cloud up and temperatures fall. We get so close to touching 50 and then it gets taken from us! All the more reason to enjoy this weekend. If the sun refuses to come out on the peninsula, head to the Cascade foothills! It’ll be plenty mild up there 🙂

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

Well Kitsap, I tried.

Sometimes weather forecasters and the general public believe that  if that little golden orb of light is shining on the 7 day forecast, such will be the case with no exceptions. Then again, if you’re from Washington you know that golden orb is taunting more than anything else. Take a look at this satellite image from this afternoon:

As strange as it sounds, if you travel closer to the foothills or coastline, you’ll find temperatures soaring into the 40s and 50s! A couple days ago some foothill locations actually recorded temperatures in the 70s. What has Kitsap been doing the whole time? Oh, I think you know. We are sitting in a bowl of freezing fog and freezing temperatures. Today was quite a bit warmer than yesterday, but still…the fog has overstayed its welcome.

So when will this inversion end, you ask? Well, we need some good mixing, and since we can’t get it in the way of strong sunlight or strong wind, we’re going to have to settle with rain. This means we’ll see locally thick areas of fog and freezing fog until early Wednesday morning when a moderate pacific system rolls through. Right now this looks like a fairly warm storm, so temperatures should rise dramatically.

From Wednesday we start to take another downward trend in temperatures. Right now I’m looking at mainly mostly cloudy skies with cold rain, but some forecast models show flakes in the forecast as soon as next weekend. Nothing is a slam dunk as of yet, but I’d say we definitely have a better chance at seeing colder than normal weather in the next 6-14 days than warmer than normal weather.

As always, stay tuned! For now, enjoy the weekend and try to escape the fog if you can 🙂

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

E-mail: forecastingkitsap@live.com

I have to admit, I feel a little bad for my poor “mostly sunny” weather icons. They don’t get to gradually fill their way into the forecast, they were pretty much forced against their will to come out of hibernation and brighten up the next seven days for us. I’m sure they would appreciate your warmest regards.

It has actually been quite a while since we’ve entered a winter pattern that has allowed so much sun time. The Seattle National Weather Service said this afternoon:

THE LAST TIME THERE WAS A DRY SPELL OF

A WEEK OR MORE IN JANUARY WAS BACK IN 2009 (11 DAYS, 13TH THROUGH THE

23RD FOR SEATAC)

Kind of sad, isn’t it? But hey, we’ll take what we can get. Although none of us saw much snow out of this cold pattern, it is still fairly unusual to transition back to a classically rainy/wet Washington winter without some sort of Hood Canal overrunning snow event. Who knows if we’ll actually skate by without any drama, but for the foreseeable future we’re going to be riding one big ridge of high pressure.

But don’t be fooled. With cool, northerly flow it will be hard to increase temperatures dramatically. In fact, it may be a few days until we get the 40s back on the record books. Low temperatures will also remain quite cold as they remain, for the most part, in the 20s.

Speaking of lows, did you know we hit 19 degrees at Bremerton Airport this morning? I’m sure some of you were colder, but usually when Western Washington gets below 20 degrees it all feels the same 😉

I’ll keep my eyes on the models, but in the meantime stay warm and safe out there!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

I will never pretend to understand the weather here, but I will always strive to predict it the best I can. The past month has featured some pretty crazy weather, and there appears to be a strange light at the end of the tunnel that I have a hard time trusting. Believe me, after spending two years in southern Africa I have seen my fair share of mirages!

But something tells me after Saturday’s overly complicated forecast we’ll take a break from our action-packed seven day forecast discussions and revert to cruise control. And let’s just say you won’t hear me complaining about it 😉

It was a cold day today with Bremerton Airport reporting a high of 36 degrees. Some of you reported a mix of rain/snow showers a couple times during the morning/afternoon hours, but for most of us it was a cold, showery January day in Western Washington. Temperatures will drop below freezing tonight, so watch out for slick spots! Skies will clear for the most part tomorrow, but don’t be fooled. Highs will still struggle to make it out of the 30s, with mid to upper 30s a common number around the peninsula.

And then there’s Saturday. Rumor has it we could see a widespread snow event on Saturday, and my honest opinion is…probably not. What it is looking like right now is a cold, partly to mostly cloudy day with the chance for some light snow showers. I still think some accumulations are possible, especially on the western half of Kitsap County, but this is in no way looking like a Hollywood blockbuster. Highs will stay in the 30s with icy lows in the 20s.

And you know, the darnedest thing happens after that. Skies will clear on Sunday which will pave the way for warming temperatures and a little string of partly to mostly sunny days through mid week next week. Highs will also get back to normal, if not slightly above. The main story will be the lack of precipitation over the next 7 days as a large area of high pressure builds in overhead.

I don’t hear many of you complaining about that 😉 And I don’t know, if you ask me I still think we’ve got enough ammo in the jet stream to give us one more snow chance before winter is over.

Have a great evening!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

E-mail: forecastingkitsap@live.com

**UPDATE 6:20 PM (1/3/2013): Some of you have reported periods of snow, mostly close to the Hood Canal. Temperatures are a couple degrees above freezing with dew points in the 20s, but this should not extend past midnight and accumulations, if any, will be light.**

I know what many of you are thinking: “When do we not have a cloudy, cold and wet year?” But wait until you see the numbers. 2012 was FAR from normal.

I’ve been busy the past couple days compiling information for a “year in review” blog post and while I do have some interesting data, it is hard to compare it to past years. Why? All we really have to go by (as far as official data is concerned) is the numbers spit out by the Bremerton National Airport (KPWT). Luckily the weather station only shut down on us twice this year, and only for a few days at a time. Other than that, weather records were preserved.

Earlier today I spoke to a meteorologist from the Seattle National Weather Service who said, “Despite insufficient [weather] records on the Kitsap Peninsula, most areas in Western Washington were between their 5th to 10th wettest years on record, and I don’t imagine Kitsap would have been the exception.”

With that being said, let’s get started with what little I have 😉 Meteorologists certainly had a fun year. We have seen:

• Ice/snowstorms (January 2012; I was in South Africa from May 2010-May 2012, so I don’t have any Kitsap data for that!)
• Thunderstorms (July 2012)
• A LONG dry spell (mid July 2012-mid October 2012)
• An Indian Summer (August-mid October 2012)
• A classic fall windstorm (October 2012)
• An incredible stretch of rain (mid October 2012-December 2012)
• A Snowpocalypse (December 2012)
• And some Christmas snow (December 2012)

Even if I was only in the country for half the year, it kept us on our toes! So how did we do in terms of average temperatures and precipitation? I’ll let the numbers speak for their cold and wet selves:

Needless to say, it was a cold and wet year! Especially from March-July. Wow, a minus 8 departure? I had to check and re-check my numbers, but they proved consistent.

Amazingly, we didn’t set any record low temperatures! We did set two record high temperatures, however. 89 degrees on August 4th and 96 degrees on August 5th.

On the Kitsap Peninsula we average just over 56” of rain a year, but there are still many locations that average more. Take this precipitation map for example:

How about sunshine, snowfall, and cloud cover? Not too surprisingly, it has been a pretty cloudy year. I don’t have averages, but I do have the 2012 statistics:

• Number of days with measurable rain: 149
• Number of sunny/partly sunny days: 130
• Number of overcast days (>70% cloud cover): 235
• Number of days with measurable snow: 13
• Number of days 80 degrees or hotter: 20
• Number of days at 85 or hotter: 8
• Number of days at 90 or hotter: 5

It has certainly been an great weather year. For more interesting statistics and cool photos, check out Scott Sistek’s 2012 weather in review.

Peeking ahead at the long range forecast, it appears we could enter a pretty cold string of weather in the next couple weeks. Obviously nothing is set in stone, but things look to be getting interesting again real soon.

In the short term, expect a rain through the weekend and into early next week before tapering off to showers. Highs will stay near normal in the low to mid 40s.

Have a great evening everyone, and let’s make it another great year!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com