Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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“Wintertime Rag”: The rhythm of storms

December 11th, 2012 by Matthew Leach

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Good evening, everyone! We’re into the second week of December now and the holidays are upon us. I’ll give a more thorough holiday travel forecast in the coming days, but for now I’d like to focus on a couple potent storm systems headed for our region, one of which could be rather wintry in nature.

I was reading the National Weather Service’s forecast discussion this evening and I loved how they described this upcoming pattern. I quote a portion of the discussion here (bold added for emphasis):

A SEASONABLY WET AND STORMY WEEK LIES AHEAD…WITH A

DISCERNIBLE RHYTHM TO INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS…ARRIVING ABOUT

EVERY OTHER DAY. THIS IS VERY TYPICAL AT A TIME OF YEAR WHEN

MEASURABLE PRECIP CLIMATOLOGICALLY OCCURS [IN SEATTLE] ON OVER 60 PERCENT

OF DAYS.

A discernible rhythm. I like it! Well, I like the word choice, not necessarily the forecast ;) Indeed, the Pacific Northwest forms this “Wintertime Rag” of sorts from about November to April with very few breaks in between. And this rhythm will be a little more fast-paced as we progress through the week.

It appears the rhythm is in 2/4 time as about every other day we’ll have wet, blustery conditions followed by breaks in between. So basically the forecast goes as follows:

Thursday, Saturday, Monday: Periods of heavy rain and gusty winds. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s.

Wednesday, Friday, Sunday: Showers and sunbreaks with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s. Breezy and cold.

A WINTRY WALTZ THIS SUNDAY??

Now, don’t start raising the alert level or stocking up on survival kits, but latest snow projections from the UW forecasting models have been advertising a potentially significant winter weather event for the Hood Canal area, perhaps extending as far east as Central Kitsap Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will be borderline, but freezing nonetheless, and they are projected to struggle to make it out of the mid 30s on Sunday. Couple that with quite a bit of precipitation around and…well, we have enough to create quite the winter wonderland.

I won’t even flirt with the idea of throwing out accumulation totals at this point, but there at least remains a chance portions of Kitsap and Mason County could be participating in a “wintry waltz” this weekend.

Until this event gets closer, however, we’ll just have to contain our enthusiasm. We wouldn’t want to be in for a major let down, now would we? ;)

Have a great evening, everyone!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

E-mail: forecastingkitsap@live.com

 

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