Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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November 2012 Weather Stats: Flooding and mountain snow

December 1st, 2012 by Matthew Leach

Welcome to December! Most of you probably don’t want to relive this past month, but who doesn’t love stats? ;)

First let’s dig up some old news and look at my November prediction made back in September. The bold areas are the parts of the forecast I got right:

November will be our transition month. We’ll notice temperatures getting colder with many “first frosts” popping up around the peninsula. The most notable thing about November will be all the rain. Usually November is a wet month, but this year it’s projected to be quite wet. Temperatures will hover around normal for the month, but enough warmer, Pineapple Express-type rain storms could nudge the temperature up a tad. The jet stream will not have responded to the El Nino atmosphere quite yet, so expect a lot of cloudy, rainy days. The snow chance is up to 40%, meaning most of the month it will likely be too mild for snow, but we could have a few bouts of it towards the end of the month

So not TOO bad. We had many first frosts between November 9th-11th, which then gave way to a lot of rain storms, a few of them being Pineapple Express-type storms. Definitely the most notable thing about this month was all the rain. How much rain, you ask? Oh, not much. Just 15.45” worth! Ahem…5” above normal. Wow! Just slightly wetter than normal ;)
It was also a mild month in many ways. Let’s take a look at our trusty graph:
Just look at that dive in low temperatures! On November 10th we went head first into a 23 degree low temperature reading, which was certainly not called for. Several more freezes occurred after that before things started to warm back up. How mild did we get?
The average November temperature around here is 41.05 degrees. Our actual November temperature came out at a dead even 43 degrees, which was almost exactly 2 degrees above normal.
It seems mild/wet November’s have been the norm for a long time now. Kind of like our Indian Summer’s. Other than the excessive rain/flooding and bouts with dry, cold air, November was a fairly typical month. It is worth noting, however, that several ski resorts opened up before Thanksgiving, a goal which can’t always be met!
And yes, it still looks like a continued wet pattern is in store for December. If it’s any consolation, we shouldn’t be seeing November’s constantly rainy pattern extending into this new month :)
Have a great weekend, everyone!!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
E-mail: forecastingkitsap@live.com
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