**A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY is in effect. Please click here to read more about how a coastal advisory is different than your typical flood advisory**

Inches, upon inches of rain. That’s just a brief summary describing this upcoming week and, well, beyond.

Ah, but it’s Christmas time in the Northwest! Wouldn’t you feel less holiday spirit if we didn’t have rain? As a kid, I got used to sledding on wet grass come Christmas morning. Of course, bailing the sled was never a fun experience, but that’s why mom was always there at the bottom of the hill with a First Aid kit in hand 😉

Where were we? Oh yes. The next seven days will be quite wet, although I wouldn’t go so far as to say it will be a washout comparable to the week leading up to Thanksgiving. Regardless, we’ll still get a lot of precipitation and, as the famous Christmas song goes, “it doesn’t show signs of stopping.” Indeed, between now and as far as long range forecast models will go, about 90% of the forecast is rain.

So how much rain this time around? Let’s take a look at the trusty 24 hour rainfall total map, ending Saturday at 4 am:

As usual, the southwestern tip of the Kitsap Peninsula will receive most of the rain with totals perhaps making it to as much as 2.50”, but most of the peninsula will receive 1.00-1.50”. In 24 hours, no less!

The bright side of this forecast is at least the weekend looks somewhat nice. If you’re longing for a positive break in the clouds and rain, Saturday will likely be your day! Hmmm…maybe reserve that day to do some Christmas tree shopping? It won’t be completely dry, but it could be among the driest in the next seven days!

Try to stay warm, dry, and safe out there! It’s been a treacherous couple months on the roads, especially in Kitsap County, so please take it easy!

Have a great day,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

E-mail: forecastingkitsap@live.com

Oh, don’t worry. I won’t bring up the time between July and October when many locals (including myself!) were complaining about the lack of rain. But boy have we made up for it in a big way!

From Friday the 16th to Friday the 23rd, we racked up an astonishing 9.17” of rain! Amazing to think we haven’t reached our monthly average rainfall total yet, but still! Nearly 10” of rain in a week is insane, even by Western Washington’s standards.

So, with that in mind, I think these next few days will be rather pleasant for most as Mother Nature is letting us come up for air in between storms. If you found yourself squinting as you left the house for work or school, you weren’t alone. It’s been a while, but for those who have forgotten, what you were seeing was the influence of what meteorologists call “the sun”. Mysterious and bright as it is, scientists have confirmed it is normal to see a bright, golden orb make an appearance every so often in the winter time.

Oh, but we can’t have too much of it, can we? Because then we’d be getting spoiled. That’s where the  next couple weeks comes in. For kicks and giggles I peeked ahead at the long range and while that cold snap I’ve been talking about is still scheduled to happen towards mid month next month, until then one storm system after another will continue to grace this region with its presence. Needless to say, by the end of the year we will have more than made up for any dry days since January.

The weather won’t really start to turn nasty until Thursday and after that there will be a few breaks in between, but generally cloudy skies with rain and highs in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees will be the theme.

Meanwhile, I’m busy trying to find some interesting weather topics to talk about until something exciting happens! Looks like I have a lot of research to do… 😉

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

E-mail: forecastingkitsap@live.com

There are already lots of reports of localized flooding around the peninsula, especially southern locations like Port Orchard and Belfair. I will echo what a lot of people are saying: slow down out there! It’s already extremely wet and slippery, and it won’t be getting any better throughout the day.

First things first: the NWS as issued a Flood Advisory for Kitsap County:

AT 1153 AM PST…PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA.

IN THE SIX HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 11 AM PST…A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES

OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS LED

TO PONDING OF WATER ON NUMEROUS ROADS…LOW LYING AREAS…AND

SOME HIGHWAY UNDERPASSES. AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO 1.2 INCHES

OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 7 PM PST THIS EVENING. THIS COULD CAUSE

SOME SMALLER STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS AS WELL AS TRIGGER

LANDSLIDES.

A Wind Advisory was also issued:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A WIND

ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON.

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...CENTRALIA...LACEY...TACOMA...AND

  SEATTLE.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 11 AM

  AND 4 PM PST TODAY.

* WIND...WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS

  NEAR 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE

  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

Of course a major concern with all of this rain isn’t just the flooding, but landslides as well. All the rain we’ve had lately has soaked soils around Western Washington, which has put the concern of landslides at moderate.

So when does the heavy stuff end? By this evening the steady, heavy rain will subside and frequent showers will take its place. Steady rain will continue through Thanksgiving Day and beyond, so it will be a while yet before we come up for air, so to speak. The long range forecast sustains this idea, with above normal precipitation expected over the next 14 days.

Stay tuned to this blog and the Kitsap Sun for regular weather updates!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

E-mail: forecastingkitsap@live.com

Well, there’s a minor tweak to the forecast I issued a few days ago. You know how I said it would be a typically wet Thanksgiving this year? Well, that forecast still stands, but it’s the days preceding Thanksgiving that have turned out to be a little more tedious than first expected.

The NWS in Seattle has issued a special weather statement on the soaking wet weather pattern to affect the area today through Wednesday, perhaps lasting into Thanksgiving Day itself. We are used to all the rain, so what’s the big deal? Let’s take a look at the 24 hour rainfall totals ending Monday at 4 pm:

Remember about a month ago when we observed a map that looked similar to this? Well, it has arrived again, and this time about 85% of the Kitsap Peninsula will be under the possibility of receiving anywhere from 2.56-5.12” of rain…in 24 hours.

So the real heavy rain (and breezy conditions, although we’re not looking at a windstorm by any means) will arrive Sunday evening and continue until late Monday. And, with the mild temperatures associated with this storm, the mountains will be on the verge of rain and rain/snow. Frequent systems will plow through the area until Thanksgiving itself, making skies cloudy and the ground sopping wet. Travel plans shouldn’t be too hectic after Monday, so if you can hold off until after the worst of the storm hits things will probably move a little smoother.

After Thanksgiving, rain will still be an issue (isn’t it always?! ;)), but things won’t be nearly as dramatic. This should spell good news for all those anticipating Black Friday sales! But get there early, as the rain jackets will likely be sold out early 😉

Have a great weekend!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

E-mail: forecastingkitsap@live.com