**I’m still looking for some stories/experiences from those who have them regarding the Columbus Day Storm of 1962! Please send them to: forecastingkitsap@live.com . Thank you!**
Whew, it’s been a long time since I’ve typed an intro like that! To be honest, I didn’t think it would take this long to cause the “T-Rex” block to go extinct and put a huge trough of low pressure in its place, but it looks like this change in weather patterns will be happening in a big way. So let’s conduct a question and answer session, shall we?
Q: When is our last dry day of fall?
A: Well, I can guarantee there won’t be a last dry day of fall, although if you’re hoping for an extended period of warm, sunny weather like we just had anytime soon, then I think it would be best to go to the beach and take some pictures for the scrapbook between today and Thursday. The long range forecast has us seasonably (and periodically unseasonably) wet and chilly over at least the next week.
Q: How wet will it get?
A: Glad you asked! Weather models are still trying to piece together the storm systems which will likely ram into the coastline one after the other from Friday and beyond, but the general consensus is for a few showers to start the weekend, an absolute soaker Sunday into Monday, and then a gradual easing up on the rain through the next week.
Interested in amounts? OK!
Although the black and blue nature of this map looks like Western Washington is going to get severely beaten, it’s really not going to be as bad as it looks. However, this 24 hour precipitation map tells us that parts of Mason County and southwest portions of Kitsap County could get well over an inch of rain while the rest of the peninsula will range anywhere from 0.50-0.70” of total rain from Sunday into Monday. That’s quite a bit in such a short amount of time, especially considering how long it’s been!
Altogether, from Friday through the next week, all of us will likely have average precipitation amounts approaching the 2” mark.
Q: Does this approaching storm have any interesting after effects? (ie windstorms, cold outbreak, mountain snow, etc)
A: Indeed, the long range forecast has been trending colder and wetter the past several days. It would be more than reasonable to conclude the Pacific Northwest will be seeing a series of disturbances over the next 14 days that will consequently start the mountain snow season. Right now it doesn’t look like we’ll be seeing any big high elevation snow storms. Besides, it’s still too early for that anyway 😉
Also, if it’s going to get colder in the mountains, undoubtedly we’ll be getting quite a bit of cold weather in the lowlands (translation: highs in the upper 40s/low 50s in time for Halloween is not out of the question!).
Stay tuned for further updates!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
forecastingkitsap@live.com
