**By way of announcement, Bremerton saw 2.26″ yesterday, along with another .75″ so far today, bringing the storm total to just over 3″!**

Happy Halloween everyone! This is my first Halloween since being back from my two year missionary service in South Africa and Namibia. They don’t celebrate Halloween over there, so today would be just another October 31st (although two guys with white shirts, black slacks, and name badges was certainly enough to scare some people away! ) I must admit, I missed this holiday and it’s good to see so many people using this day as an excuse to dress up and scare the living daylights out of others! (No wonder South Africans thought us strange for celebrating such a holiday… )

My costume has had several malfunctions already, so I fear this Halloween will be like many in the past: dress up as a weatherman. And on a day like this, I think such a costume would provide plenty of frights and scares as the meteorologists in Seattle issued a Flood Advisory early this morning in anticipation for area flooding. Certainly not a washout by any means, just somewhat of an inconvenience.

So, just expect minor flooding in and around area streams throughout the day as heavy rain persists (so it turns out my word choice of “deluge” a couple days ago wasn’t so dramatic after all! ).

The Halloween Forecast: Mostly cloudy with rain tapering off to showers. Temperatures will be near 50 degrees most of the evening, dipping into the mid and upper 40s as the night wears on. So sure, bring an umbrella, but the weather will greatly improve by this evening :

Here’s your treat: Friday looks pretty nice overall. In fact, I expect we’ll see quite a bit in the way of sun breaks with highs in the upper 50s.

Here’s your trick: Rain will promptly follow Friday’s sun breaks and continue into next week.

Ah well. We’re used to such impossible weather, aren’t we? I’m sure by now costumes have been adjusted accordingly

Have a safe and fun night everyone!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

A frightening satellite picture of Hurricane Sandy taken two days ago, racing across the Atlantic heading right for the eastern seaboard

Good afternoon everyone! I am grateful nothing more came of the tsunami warnings this weekend and I hope those that were warned ahead of time took necessary precautions. You never know when something seemingly insignificant can turn into a full blown natural disaster. Such is the case on the east coast this Monday afternoon, and I hope you will keep all those affected by Hurricane Sandy in your thoughts and prayers. This historically severe storm should make landfall on the coast of southern New Jersey within the next 3-5 hours.

Nothing on our side of the country will compare to the devastation expected for those living in the hurricane’s path, although we do have a few personal headlines to cover for your convenience!

The National Weather Service has issued a Hydrologic Outlook for potential flooding of area rivers Tuesday and Wednesday as a strong Pacific storm blows through, dumping potentially 1.50”-2.00” of rain on the majority of the Kitsap Peninsula. Look at the latest 24 hour rainfall totals ending Wednesday morning:

Sorry, folks, this isn’t much of a trick OR treat, but luckily after this deluge of rain we will be seeing light at the end of the tunnel.

This is particularly good news considering a few days ago I couldn’t see ANY break in the rain activity whatsoever. So, as it stands, Tuesday and the first part of Wednesday will feature periods of heavy rain with some flooding possible in and around area rivers, but it’s not looking too severe at the moment. Showers and sunbreaks dominate the latter part of the week with highs remaining in the mid 50s, then clouds and showers return for the weekend.

The good news is, Monday looks dry for now with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s, so if you’ve been longing for some more of that exceptionally dry weather, I’m sure we can make a deal with Mother Nature to give us at least one perfectly dry day within the next seven

Have a great day everyone,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

**UPDATE: 10:00 AM: All Tsunami Warning’s have ended. There is no longer any imminent threat. Please click here to read the full report.

****************************************************************************************************************

ORIGINAL STORY FROM 10/27/2012, 9:00 PM- Due to a strong 7.1 earthquake off the Queen Charlotte Islands, a Tsunami Warning has been issued, primarily for the Alaska and BC coastlines. The US West Coast is highlighted as a potential threat.

…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA – OREGON – WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA…

PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES FOR INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

The tsunami Warning continues in effect for the coastal areas of British Columbia and Alaska from the north tip of Vancouver Island, British Columbia to Cape Decision, Alaska (85 miles SE of Sitka). – Event details: Preliminary magnitude 7.7 (Mw) earthquake / Lat: 52.900, Lon: -131.900 at 2012-10-28T03:04:10Z Tsunami warnings mean that a tsunami with significant widespread inundation is expected, or occurring. Warnings indicate that widespread dangerous coastal flooding accompanied by powerful currents is possible and may continue for several hours after the initial wave arrival.

Estimated arrival times and wave heights

Recommended Actions: People in low-lying coastal areas should be alert to instructions from their local emergency officials. If in a tsunami warning coastal area, move inland to higher ground. Next update and additional information: This message will be updated in 30 minutes or sooner if the situation warrants. The tsunami message will remain in effect until further notice. Refer to the internet site wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov for more information.

Yes, I will be the first one to admit it: the weather has been kind of slow around here. Oh sure, it’s nice to have the rain back and all, but wow I could’ve slept through this past week and not missed a thing weather-wise! Despite rain every day in the forecast, there are some lovely fall colors out there that need to be taken advantage of before November rolls around! We all know what Western Washington’s November weather pattern is like!

Because of the nasty weather, how about I invite you to enjoy the fall foliage from the comfort of your home. All of these pictures actually come from my Dad, Greg Leach, who has recently taken photography as a hobby.

At a cemetery in Gig Harbor

Wright Park, Tacoma

After a rain shower, Silverdale

Ridgetop, Silverdale

Madigan Army Medical Center, Tacoma

Isn’t the autumn season just great? Thanks Dad for the pictures! Do you have any pictures you’d like featured in the blog? Just shoot me an e-mail at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

As for the forecast, I’m keeping my eyes on a potentially heavy rain event on the 29th. Remember when I alluded to this a few days ago? Yeah, it still looks like apart of the plan. I’ll keep you updated on the potential and we’ll also revisit the Halloween forecast

Until then, have a great day! Stay dry and warm,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

It is downright cold outside today! Temperature gauges all across the peninsula are pulling some unseasonably cold readings for this time of year with 43 degrees and 0.10” in the rain gauge. Perfect chili weather if you ask me, but some of you are…gasp!…complaining about this weather!

One moment we’re all dying of thirst because of the “drought of the century”, and the next we’re scrambling to build our own arks! I understand the change in weather has been traumatic for some of you and I think that’s why Mother Nature is going to put the current weather pattern on repeat for the next couple weeks so we don’t suffer another major shock to the system

But all jokes aside, the jet stream doesn’t look any weaker over the next 14 days. Temperatures will warm slightly, yes, but the fire hose is aimed right at us, providing one storm system after another access to the great Northwest and in turn, giving the mountains a nice, pre-season snow pack.

If you’d like an even more specific look inside the long range forecast, look no further than the 7 day forecast. Just take this weeks worth of weather and duplicate it. Aside from some scattered sunbreaks mid week and towards the weekend, expect mostly cloudy skies, showers, and highs in the 40s to low 50s through Sunday. Meanwhile, highs in the 20s with persistent snow is in the forecast for Stevens Pass!

All in all, yes a rather boring forecast all things considered, but let us all remember what life was like several weeks ago

Have a great day!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

Brief update tonight, folks! Hope the start of your weekend is going well!

Guess what?!?!? I can hardly contain my excitement because the Cascades are under a Winter Storm Warning for their first significant snowfall of the season. Yahoo!

Ahem…be safe everyone. More updates, especially concerning the lowlands, tomorrow.

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 PM PDT FRI OCT 19 2012

…THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND PASSES IN WESTERN WASHINGTON FROM LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON….

WAZ513-518-519-201130-
/O.UPG.KSEW.WS.A.0014.121020T0600Z-121021T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KSEW.WS.W.0017.121020T0600Z-121021T0000Z/
OLYMPICS-WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
252 PM PDT FRI OCT 19 2012

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM
PDT SATURDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE OLYMPICS…AND NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS…HURRICANE RIDGE…MOUNT BAKER…
STEVENS PASS…WASHINGTON PASS…WHITE PASS…MOUNT RAINIER
NATIONAL PARK…AND SNOQUALMIE PASS.

* TIMING…LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
AROUND 1 FOOT POSSIBLE ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE FAVORED CONVERGENCE
ZONE AREAS OF NORTH KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES MAY ALSO RECEIVE
LOCAL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 1 FOOT WHICH MAY IMPACT STEVENS PASS.

* MAIN IMPACT…TRAVEL OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL BE HAZARDOUS
AT TIMES.

* SNOW LEVEL…FALLING TO 4500 FEET LATE THIS EVENING…THEN DOWN
TO 3000 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
HAZARDOUS…WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.

FOR ROAD CONDITIONS OR TRAVEL ALERTS…CALL 5-1-1…OR VISIT
WWW.WSDOT.WA.GOV.

Good afternoon, everyone! Hope you’ve had sufficient time to dry off because we have more storm systems and downright cold weather on tap after this short commercial break (meaning today ). Included in this forecast is some more mountain snow showers! In fact, take a look at this picture taken yesterday afternoon:

That’s right! Those are snowflakes falling at Stevens Pass. And sure enough, the forecast for the next week includes a chance for snow every day. So let’s hope this isn’t a bad omen for winter

Now, with the weather behaving the way it has the past several days, I got curious and took a sneak peek at what the projected weather pattern will be like on Halloween. Of course we must remember it’s a long range forecast, but Halloween is becoming less and less long range as the days go by (imagine that!).

Needless to say, those little costumes portraying ghouls and goblins (or Justin Bieber if you live in Tacoma) may need to be covered with a little rain jacket. Luckily, the current forecast calls for a wet Halloween day, but a chilly, somewhat dry night. Bring the umbrella just in case, though

That’s a relief! I need an umbrella to match my weatherman costume, anyway!

Stay warm and dry, folks!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Ghoulish complaints? Send them my way at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

Good blustery, damp fall morning everyone! You asked for it and…well, October is here. Happy now?

If you, for whatever twisted reason, are not yet satisfied with the 2.2” of rain the past 72 hours, then maybe the latest National Weather Service announcement will be more your style:

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

958 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

…VERY WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…

.A RAPIDLY MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN

WASHINGTON TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL

INCREASE OVER THE COAST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO 20 TO 30 MPH

WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL

CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVER THE REST OF THE INTERIOR

WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING AND LAST

THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH

GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

Yeah…it’s gonna get even windier and wetter around here! But I’m not expecting anyone to e-mail in with survivor stories this time. It’s not looking like a repeat of the Columbus Day storm of 1962

Expect increasing wind and rain throughout the day, adding another .50”-1.00” of rain to the already soaked ground! The wind will persist throughout the night and into tomorrow morning before the wind and rain both subside and offer a more breezy, showery day for Tuesday. The forecast remains wet and chilly until at least Wednesday when the sun breaks out, smiles upon the citizens of Kitsap County and then does a 180 on Thursday and dumps rain over the entire region through the weekend. Highs will really struggle to make it out of the mid 50s the whole week, with temperatures cooling to near 50 degrees by the weekend.

Bundle up, grab your umbrellas, and get the flashlights ready! October has arrived

Stay tuned for more updates as they come!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

TILLAMOOK, OREGON

As she surveyed the damage of her now surreal and tragic surroundings, Marie Walmsley, then of Tillamook, Oregon, recounts that “[o]ne of the lasting memories of the aftermath was the downed trees everywhere and the dead and bloated dairy cows in the flooded pastures in Tillamook county.” She then adds, “I hope to never see such a storm again in this lifetime.” It was a frightening night for young Marie, yet the night before she braved the storm to help neighbors in need.

 
On the evening of October 12th, 1962, Marie heard a loud crashing sound and witnessed a large chunk of the roof on their neighbor’s mobile home blow away. Marie and her sister rushed to the home, “got inside the trailer, and moved as much of the furniture as [they] could out of the driving rain and into part of the trailer that still had a roof on it.” Luckily, the neighbors had sought safety in another home shortly before the damage took place.

Photo credit: Unknown

Known as the furious monster that uprooted large trees, damaged homes, killed 46 people, and altogether cost the West Coast of the United States nearly 300 million dollars in damage, the Columbus Day Storm of October 12th, 1962 remains one of the strongest hurricane-force storms to hit the Pacific Northwest. Today, this particular storm is considered the benchmark for every windstorm that has since ravaged the West Coast.

 
With rainfall rates at one point averaging 8” per hour and wind speeds averaging 68 mph, many residents of the Northwest reasonably claimed the storm rolled in “like a hurricane.” A maximum wind gust read “145 mph+” at Cape Blanco, Oregon, although later reports confirmed the wind reached a maximum speed of 179 mph (the “145+” reading was actually a result of one of the weather stations blowing away after reaching 145 mph! Good thing there was more than one wind gauge around!)

PORTLAND, OREGON

At least one current Kitsap County resident remembers what it was like in Portland, Oregon during the storm. Suzanne Griffith recalls the storm arrived around 7 pm at the Reed College campus. “Some thought it was retribution for us having defeated a local Christian college at touch football,” she said. As the skies turned color and the wind began to howl, students on the campus flocked to their dorms.

 
“All our lights went out, and they stayed out for over a week,” Suzanne recounts. “That was one smelly campus with no hot water!” In addition to these unfortunate hygienic emergencies, Suzanne remembers the more serious effects of the storm: the aftermath. “Half the ancient trees were felled. Even now, they have not all been replanted.” Storm records show that Portland, Oregon reached a maximum wind gust of 116 mph.

Photo credit: Unknown

THE COLUMBUS DAY STORM: A KITSAP PERSPECTIVE
While damage wasn’t nearly as extensive or costly as areas further south, Kitsap County experienced its own fair share of being blown around by the vicious, early-season windstorm.

BREMERTON
As we travel about 170 miles north, the “Terrible Tempest of the 12th” made its own memorable impact, and several Kitsap County residents remember that night all too well.

As a child living in Bremerton, Barbara Burrows remembers the apparent downplaying of the storm. “All the adults were talking about the storm that was supposed to hit that night,” she said. “but they didn’t realize how bad it was going to be.”

What was supposed to be a pleasant and enjoyable time at her grandparents home turned into a frightening experience for little seven-year-old Barbara. “It was a pretty breezy afternoon,” Barbara recalled. “but by 7 pm it really began to howl.” As the lights flickered and eventually went out, Barbara remembers feeling the disappointment perhaps only a child could feel: regular scheduled programming of the Flintstones with Grandma and Grandpa had just been forcefully canceled.

“I was really upset,” Barbara remembers, but with the television off, the eerie screams of a furious wind were more clear than they had been before. After a frightening evening of darkness and a record-breaking storm blowing all around her, Barbara remembers, like Suzanne, the aftermath as being particularly memorable with trees at her own home and in surrounding areas uprooted or otherwise blown over. Says Barbara, recounting her last memory of the storm, “I recall grownups talking about it for weeks after it happened.” Although hourly Bremerton weather was hard to come by then, the highest wind gust recorded was 75 mph.

Photo credit: Unknown

THE HAMMA HAMMA RIVER VALLEY (OLYMPIC PENINSULA)
Although not technically on the Kitsap peninsula itself, local resident Marv Maki remembers a particularly memorable night of camping in the Hamma Hamma River Valley with his father during the Columbus Day storm, one of the most powerful cyclones to hit the U.S. in the 20th century. The next day was the opening of hunting season, and Marv’s father, Arne, wasn’t going to let the storm of the century get in the way.

When the wind started to howl that evening, it was clear danger was around the corner. “We could hear trees falling all around us,” Marv recounted. “And Dad spent a couple of hours holding on to the center pole of the tent.” As the crackling branches and thuds of falling trees danced all around Marv and his father (a Pacific Northwest “Man vs. Wild” contender, if you ask me), the morning would prove welcome relief from the outside contention. But the aftermath was quite a sight to behold, remembers Marv.

The following day after a successful round of hunting, a view of the hills towards the head of Quilcene Bay provided an eerie reminder of the storm’s strength. Marv descriptively recounts, “It was as if a giant hand had moved through the bay and out the end taking down every last tree to the north”. There are no available weather records detailing how high the wind speeds were on the Olympic Peninsula, although surrounding areas averaged in the high 70s to low 80s.

Photo credit: Unknown

PORT ORCHARD

Despite the damage and tragedy wrought by the vicious storm, Rosie Atkinson has some positive memories. As a young wife of six children, Rosie gathered her family together as the wind shook and threatened to tear apart their little home on the Harper waterfront. With the power out and the children too afraid to make their way upstairs for bed,  most of that night the family played games by the light of some old kerosene lanterns.

“The next day we got to know our neighbors,” said Rosie. Her neighbors had not previously signed on for Manchester Water and relied on wells that only produced water with an electrically run pump. “To those neighbors we provided water,” remembers Rosie. ” And because they all had electric furnaces or oil furnaces that required power to turn on, they came over and warmed themselves at our kitchen range.”

Although the power was out for about a week, no trees fell or threatened their home. There was, however, plenty of damage throughout the neighborhood. The moral of the story? Says Rosie, “It was a temporary inconvenience, but we were happy to get to know the neighbors a little better, some of whom we still cherish as friends.” Wind gusts exceeded 80 mph along the water in Port Orchard that night.

THE COLUMBUS DAY STORM OF 1962: A SUMMARY
These are just a few among the many records, stories, photos, and videos detailing this most impressive windstorm. If you are interested in reading further concerning specific details on the storm, I have provided some links below. Thanks to all who have shared their stories concerning the dramatic events of October 12th, 1962! In the present, we have our own little dilemma to sort out: lots and lots of rain! But more on that tomorrow

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

links:
http://web.kitsapsun.com/news/2002/october/10122columbusday.html
http://www.climate.washington.edu/stormking/October1962.html

Photo credit: Unknown

**I’m still looking for some stories/experiences from those who have them regarding the Columbus Day Storm of 1962! Please send them to: forecastingkitsap@live.com . Thank you!**

Whew, it’s been a long time since I’ve typed an intro like that! To be honest, I didn’t think it would take this long to cause the “T-Rex” block to go extinct and put a huge trough of low pressure in its place, but it looks like this change in weather patterns will be happening in a big way. So let’s conduct a question and answer session, shall we?

Q: When is our last dry day of fall?

A: Well, I can guarantee there won’t be a last dry day of fall, although if you’re hoping for an extended period of warm, sunny weather like we just had anytime soon, then I think it would be best to go to the beach and take some pictures for the scrapbook between today and Thursday. The long range forecast has us seasonably (and periodically unseasonably) wet and chilly over at least the next week.

Q: How wet will it get?

A: Glad you asked! Weather models are still trying to piece together the storm systems which will likely ram into the coastline one after the other from Friday and beyond, but the general consensus is for a few showers to start the weekend, an absolute soaker Sunday into Monday, and then a gradual easing up on the rain through the next week.

Interested in amounts? OK!

Although the black and blue nature of this map looks like Western Washington is going to get severely beaten, it’s really not going to be as bad as it looks. However, this 24 hour precipitation map tells us that parts of Mason County and southwest portions of Kitsap County could get well over an inch of rain while the rest of the peninsula will range anywhere from 0.50-0.70” of total rain from Sunday into Monday. That’s quite a bit in such a short amount of time, especially considering how long it’s been!

Altogether, from Friday through the next week, all of us will likely have average precipitation amounts approaching the 2” mark.

Q: Does this approaching storm have any interesting after effects? (ie windstorms, cold outbreak, mountain snow, etc)

A: Indeed, the long range forecast has been trending colder and wetter the past several days. It would be more than reasonable to conclude the Pacific Northwest will be seeing a series of disturbances over the next 14 days that will consequently start the mountain snow season. Right now it doesn’t look like we’ll be seeing any big high elevation snow storms. Besides, it’s still too early for that anyway

Also, if it’s going to get colder in the mountains, undoubtedly we’ll be getting quite a bit of cold weather in the lowlands (translation: highs in the upper 40s/low 50s in time for Halloween is not out of the question!).

Stay tuned for further updates!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com