Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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Archive for October, 2012

**FLOOD ADVISORY: It’s no trick! And it’s not a treat either…

Wednesday, October 31st, 2012

**By way of announcement, Bremerton saw 2.26″ yesterday, along with another .75″ so far today, bringing the storm total to just over 3″!**

Happy Halloween everyone! This is my first Halloween since being back from my two year missionary service in South Africa and Namibia. They don’t celebrate Halloween over there, so today would be just another October 31st (although two guys with white shirts, black slacks, and name badges was certainly enough to scare some people away! :)) I must admit, I missed this holiday and it’s good to see so many people using this day as an excuse to dress up and scare the living daylights out of others! (No wonder South Africans thought us strange for celebrating such a holiday… ;))

My costume has had several malfunctions already, so I fear this Halloween will be like many in the past: dress up as a weatherman. And on a day like this, I think such a costume would provide plenty of frights and scares as the meteorologists in Seattle issued a Flood Advisory early this morning in anticipation for area flooding. Certainly not a washout by any means, just somewhat of an inconvenience.

So, just expect minor flooding in and around area streams throughout the day as heavy rain persists (so it turns out my word choice of “deluge” a couple days ago wasn’t so dramatic after all! ;)).

The Halloween Forecast: Mostly cloudy with rain tapering off to showers. Temperatures will be near 50 degrees most of the evening, dipping into the mid and upper 40s as the night wears on. So sure, bring an umbrella, but the weather will greatly improve by this evening :

Here’s your treat: Friday looks pretty nice overall. In fact, I expect we’ll see quite a bit in the way of sun breaks with highs in the upper 50s.

Here’s your trick: Rain will promptly follow Friday’s sun breaks and continue into next week.

Ah well. We’re used to such impossible weather, aren’t we? I’m sure by now costumes have been adjusted accordingly :)

Have a safe and fun night everyone!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com



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A deluge of rain tomorrow, followed by clearing

Monday, October 29th, 2012
A frightening satellite picture of Hurricane Sandy racing across the Atlantic, heading right for the eastern seaboard

A frightening satellite picture of Hurricane Sandy taken two days ago, racing across the Atlantic heading right for the eastern seaboard

Good afternoon everyone! I am grateful nothing more came of the tsunami warnings this weekend and I hope those that were warned ahead of time took necessary precautions. You never know when something seemingly insignificant can turn into a full blown natural disaster. Such is the case on the east coast this Monday afternoon, and I hope you will keep all those affected by Hurricane Sandy in your thoughts and prayers. This historically severe storm should make landfall on the coast of southern New Jersey within the next 3-5 hours.

Nothing on our side of the country will compare to the devastation expected for those living in the hurricane’s path, although we do have a few personal headlines to cover for your convenience!

The National Weather Service has issued a Hydrologic Outlook for potential flooding of area rivers Tuesday and Wednesday as a strong Pacific storm blows through, dumping potentially 1.50”-2.00” of rain on the majority of the Kitsap Peninsula. Look at the latest 24 hour rainfall totals ending Wednesday morning:

Sorry, folks, this isn’t much of a trick OR treat, but luckily after this deluge of rain we will be seeing light at the end of the tunnel.

This is particularly good news considering a few days ago I couldn’t see ANY break in the rain activity whatsoever. So, as it stands, Tuesday and the first part of Wednesday will feature periods of heavy rain with some flooding possible in and around area rivers, but it’s not looking too severe at the moment. Showers and sunbreaks dominate the latter part of the week with highs remaining in the mid 50s, then clouds and showers return for the weekend.

The good news is, Monday looks dry for now with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s, so if you’ve been longing for some more of that exceptionally dry weather, I’m sure we can make a deal with Mother Nature to give us at least one perfectly dry day within the next seven :)

Have a great day everyone,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com



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**TSUNAMI WARNING canceled for AK, BC coast as well as Hawaii

Saturday, October 27th, 2012

 

**UPDATE: 10:00 AM: All Tsunami Warning’s have ended. There is no longer any imminent threat. Please click here to read the full report.

****************************************************************************************************************

ORIGINAL STORY FROM 10/27/2012, 9:00 PM- Due to a strong 7.1 earthquake off the Queen Charlotte Islands, a Tsunami Warning has been issued, primarily for the Alaska and BC coastlines. The US West Coast is highlighted as a potential threat.

…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA – OREGON – WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA…

PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES FOR INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

The tsunami Warning continues in effect for the coastal areas of British Columbia and Alaska from the north tip of Vancouver Island, British Columbia to Cape Decision, Alaska (85 miles SE of Sitka). – Event details: Preliminary magnitude 7.7 (Mw) earthquake / Lat: 52.900, Lon: -131.900 at 2012-10-28T03:04:10Z Tsunami warnings mean that a tsunami with significant widespread inundation is expected, or occurring. Warnings indicate that widespread dangerous coastal flooding accompanied by powerful currents is possible and may continue for several hours after the initial wave arrival.

Estimated arrival times and wave heights

Langara Island, British Columbia 9:16 PM GMT-07 (44 minutes ago)
Craig, Alaska 8:25 PM GMT-08 (35 minutes ago)
Sitka, Alaska 8:42 PM GMT-08 (18 minutes ago)
Elfin Cove, Alaska 8:53 PM GMT-08 (7 minutes ago)
Tofino, British Columbia 10:09 PM GMT-07 (9 minutes from now)


Recommended Actions: People in low-lying coastal areas should be alert to instructions from their local emergency officials. If in a tsunami warning coastal area, move inland to higher ground. Next update and additional information: This message will be updated in 30 minutes or sooner if the situation warrants. The tsunami message will remain in effect until further notice. Refer to the internet site wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov for more information.



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PHOTOS: Taking a moment to enjoy fall

Thursday, October 25th, 2012

Yes, I will be the first one to admit it: the weather has been kind of slow around here. Oh sure, it’s nice to have the rain back and all, but wow I could’ve slept through this past week and not missed a thing weather-wise! :) Despite rain every day in the forecast, there are some lovely fall colors out there that need to be taken advantage of before November rolls around! We all know what Western Washington’s November weather pattern is like!

Because of the nasty weather, how about I invite you to enjoy the fall foliage from the comfort of your home. All of these pictures actually come from my Dad, Greg Leach, who has recently taken photography as a hobby.

At a cemetery in Gig Harbor

Wright Park, Tacoma

After a rain shower, Silverdale

Ridgetop, Silverdale

Madigan Army Medical Center, Tacoma

Isn’t the autumn season just great? Thanks Dad for the pictures! Do you have any pictures you’d like featured in the blog? Just shoot me an e-mail at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

As for the forecast, I’m keeping my eyes on a potentially heavy rain event on the 29th. Remember when I alluded to this a few days ago? Yeah, it still looks like apart of the plan. I’ll keep you updated on the potential and we’ll also revisit the Halloween forecast :)

Until then, have a great day! Stay dry and warm,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap



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Long Range Thoughts: Had enough yet?

Monday, October 22nd, 2012

It is downright cold outside today! Temperature gauges all across the peninsula are pulling some unseasonably cold readings for this time of year with 43 degrees and 0.10” in the rain gauge. Perfect chili weather if you ask me, but some of you are…gasp!…complaining about this weather!

One moment we’re all dying of thirst because of the “drought of the century”, and the next we’re scrambling to build our own arks! I understand the change in weather has been traumatic for some of you and I think that’s why Mother Nature is going to put the current weather pattern on repeat for the next couple weeks so we don’t suffer another major shock to the system ;)

But all jokes aside, the jet stream doesn’t look any weaker over the next 14 days. Temperatures will warm slightly, yes, but the fire hose is aimed right at us, providing one storm system after another access to the great Northwest and in turn, giving the mountains a nice, pre-season snow pack.

If you’d like an even more specific look inside the long range forecast, look no further than the 7 day forecast. Just take this weeks worth of weather and duplicate it. Aside from some scattered sunbreaks mid week and towards the weekend, expect mostly cloudy skies, showers, and highs in the 40s to low 50s through Sunday. Meanwhile, highs in the 20s with persistent snow is in the forecast for Stevens Pass!

All in all, yes a rather boring forecast all things considered, but let us all remember what life was like several weeks ago ;)

Have a great day!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com


Mountains under a Winter Storm Warning

Friday, October 19th, 2012

Brief update tonight, folks! Hope the start of your weekend is going well!

Guess what?!?!? I can hardly contain my excitement because the Cascades are under a Winter Storm Warning for their first significant snowfall of the season. Yahoo!

Ahem…be safe everyone. More updates, especially concerning the lowlands, tomorrow.

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 PM PDT FRI OCT 19 2012

…THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND PASSES IN WESTERN WASHINGTON FROM LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON….

WAZ513-518-519-201130-
/O.UPG.KSEW.WS.A.0014.121020T0600Z-121021T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KSEW.WS.W.0017.121020T0600Z-121021T0000Z/
OLYMPICS-WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
252 PM PDT FRI OCT 19 2012

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM
PDT SATURDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE OLYMPICS…AND NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS…HURRICANE RIDGE…MOUNT BAKER…
STEVENS PASS…WASHINGTON PASS…WHITE PASS…MOUNT RAINIER
NATIONAL PARK…AND SNOQUALMIE PASS.

* TIMING…LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
AROUND 1 FOOT POSSIBLE ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE FAVORED CONVERGENCE
ZONE AREAS OF NORTH KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES MAY ALSO RECEIVE
LOCAL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 1 FOOT WHICH MAY IMPACT STEVENS PASS.

* MAIN IMPACT…TRAVEL OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL BE HAZARDOUS
AT TIMES.

* SNOW LEVEL…FALLING TO 4500 FEET LATE THIS EVENING…THEN DOWN
TO 3000 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
HAZARDOUS…WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.

FOR ROAD CONDITIONS OR TRAVEL ALERTS…CALL 5-1-1…OR VISIT
WWW.WSDOT.WA.GOV.


BOO!: A sneak peek Halloween forecast

Wednesday, October 17th, 2012

Good afternoon, everyone! Hope you’ve had sufficient time to dry off because we have more storm systems and downright cold weather on tap after this short commercial break (meaning today ;)). Included in this forecast is some more mountain snow showers! In fact, take a look at this picture taken yesterday afternoon:

That’s right! Those are snowflakes falling at Stevens Pass. And sure enough, the forecast for the next week includes a chance for snow every day. So let’s hope this isn’t a bad omen for winter ;)

Now, with the weather behaving the way it has the past several days, I got curious and took a sneak peek at what the projected weather pattern will be like on Halloween. Of course we must remember it’s a long range forecast, but Halloween is becoming less and less long range as the days go by (imagine that!).

Needless to say, those little costumes portraying ghouls and goblins (or Justin Bieber if you live in Tacoma) may need to be covered with a little rain jacket. Luckily, the current forecast calls for a wet Halloween day, but a chilly, somewhat dry night. Bring the umbrella just in case, though :)

That’s a relief! I need an umbrella to match my weatherman costume, anyway! ;)

Stay warm and dry, folks!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Ghoulish complaints? Send them my way at: forecastingkitsap@live.com



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**WIND ADVISORY: It’s not October without strong wind and over 2” of rain…

Monday, October 15th, 2012

Good blustery, damp fall morning everyone! You asked for it and…well, October is here. Happy now? ;)

If you, for whatever twisted reason, are not yet satisfied with the 2.2” of rain the past 72 hours, then maybe the latest National Weather Service announcement will be more your style:

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

958 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

…VERY WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…

.A RAPIDLY MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN

WASHINGTON TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL

INCREASE OVER THE COAST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO 20 TO 30 MPH

WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL

CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVER THE REST OF THE INTERIOR

WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING AND LAST

THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH

GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

Yeah…it’s gonna get even windier and wetter around here! But I’m not expecting anyone to e-mail in with survivor stories this time. It’s not looking like a repeat of the Columbus Day storm of 1962 :)

Expect increasing wind and rain throughout the day, adding another .50”-1.00” of rain to the already soaked ground! The wind will persist throughout the night and into tomorrow morning before the wind and rain both subside and offer a more breezy, showery day for Tuesday. The forecast remains wet and chilly until at least Wednesday when the sun breaks out, smiles upon the citizens of Kitsap County and then does a 180 on Thursday and dumps rain over the entire region through the weekend. Highs will really struggle to make it out of the mid 50s the whole week, with temperatures cooling to near 50 degrees by the weekend.

Bundle up, grab your umbrellas, and get the flashlights ready! October has arrived :)

Stay tuned for more updates as they come!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com



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Ready to get soaked?: Q&A Session

Tuesday, October 9th, 2012

Photo credit: Unknown

**I’m still looking for some stories/experiences from those who have them regarding the Columbus Day Storm of 1962! Please send them to: forecastingkitsap@live.com . Thank you!**

Whew, it’s been a long time since I’ve typed an intro like that! To be honest, I didn’t think it would take this long to cause the “T-Rex” block to go extinct and put a huge trough of low pressure in its place, but it looks like this change in weather patterns will be happening in a big way. So let’s conduct a question and answer session, shall we?

Q: When is our last dry day of fall?

A: Well, I can guarantee there won’t be a last dry day of fall, although if you’re hoping for an extended period of warm, sunny weather like we just had anytime soon, then I think it would be best to go to the beach and take some pictures for the scrapbook between today and Thursday. The long range forecast has us seasonably (and periodically unseasonably) wet and chilly over at least the next week.

Q: How wet will it get?

A: Glad you asked! Weather models are still trying to piece together the storm systems which will likely ram into the coastline one after the other from Friday and beyond, but the general consensus is for a few showers to start the weekend, an absolute soaker Sunday into Monday, and then a gradual easing up on the rain through the next week.

Interested in amounts? OK!

Although the black and blue nature of this map looks like Western Washington is going to get severely beaten, it’s really not going to be as bad as it looks. However, this 24 hour precipitation map tells us that parts of Mason County and southwest portions of Kitsap County could get well over an inch of rain while the rest of the peninsula will range anywhere from 0.50-0.70” of total rain from Sunday into Monday. That’s quite a bit in such a short amount of time, especially considering how long it’s been!

Altogether, from Friday through the next week, all of us will likely have average precipitation amounts approaching the 2” mark.

Q: Does this approaching storm have any interesting after effects? (ie windstorms, cold outbreak, mountain snow, etc)

A: Indeed, the long range forecast has been trending colder and wetter the past several days. It would be more than reasonable to conclude the Pacific Northwest will be seeing a series of disturbances over the next 14 days that will consequently start the mountain snow season. Right now it doesn’t look like we’ll be seeing any big high elevation snow storms. Besides, it’s still too early for that anyway ;)

Also, if it’s going to get colder in the mountains, undoubtedly we’ll be getting quite a bit of cold weather in the lowlands (translation: highs in the upper 40s/low 50s in time for Halloween is not out of the question!).

Stay tuned for further updates!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com



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The Columbus Day Storm 50 years later: A Kitsap perspective, Part I

Monday, October 8th, 2012

Afternoon, everyone! I hope all of you had a great weekend. It was quite a pleasant and relatively warm first weekend of October, but we have some major changes coming. I will talk about those changes in greater detail tomorrow, so please refer to the seven day forecast below for the summarized version ;)

Now for the big news story: I would like to request some help regarding the 50 year anniversary of one of the most powerful cyclones in 20th century U.S. history, the Columbus Day Storm of October 12th, 1962. As most of you probably know, I was not even close to being around at that time. That is where you come in!

On Friday I will produce a special blog post in relation to the Columbus Day storm, however my goal is to offer a perspective that many probably haven’t seen or heard about. I am requesting pictures and/or experiences from those who were here on the peninsula during the storm or have stories to share. This would be a great help, as I only have information in regards to how the Northwest was affected as a whole.

If you have any stories, experiences or photos you would like to share for this story, please e-mail me at:

forecastingkitsap@live.com

Thank you! Your help is much appreciated! :)

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap


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