Comments on: **Official ‘Forecasting Kitsap’ Fall 2012 forecast http://pugetsoundblogs.com/forecasting-kitsap/2012/09/26/official-forecasting-kitsap-fall-2012-forecast/ Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap. Wed, 12 Jun 2013 03:11:49 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 By: Ron http://pugetsoundblogs.com/forecasting-kitsap/2012/09/26/official-forecasting-kitsap-fall-2012-forecast/comment-page-1/#comment-44412 Ron Thu, 04 Oct 2012 06:42:38 +0000 http://pugetsoundblogs.com/forecasting-kitsap/?p=3498#comment-44412 Matt:

You have given us much to ponder at a time of great weather uncertainty. I look forward to reading your forecast.

]]> By: Matthew Leach http://pugetsoundblogs.com/forecasting-kitsap/2012/09/26/official-forecasting-kitsap-fall-2012-forecast/comment-page-1/#comment-44407 Matthew Leach Tue, 02 Oct 2012 00:38:43 +0000 http://pugetsoundblogs.com/forecasting-kitsap/?p=3498#comment-44407 Thanks, Mark! I appreciate your comments. You are exactly right: it’ll be a weak Nino, if even a Nino at all. The way it looks now, we’re headed for a neutral, or wildcard, winter.

The PDO can have a major influence on the weather, and with its negative readings, I’d expect a cooler/wetter pattern setting up shop in a few weeks.

Thanks again!

]]> By: Mark http://pugetsoundblogs.com/forecasting-kitsap/2012/09/26/official-forecasting-kitsap-fall-2012-forecast/comment-page-1/#comment-44399 Mark Thu, 27 Sep 2012 01:51:16 +0000 http://pugetsoundblogs.com/forecasting-kitsap/?p=3498#comment-44399 Matthew,

Great job. I think you are on your way to being a fine meteorologist. Very informative analysis and I like your use of analogs. I have seen the dire winter forecasts predicting essentially a winter drought and warm temps. The forecasts seemed a little aggressive to me since this is a weak El Nino forecast. I couldn’t figure out why, if it if going to be weak, how it could have such a strong effect this winter. Well, things like the PDO matter too. But with the careful use of analogs, and using persistence to infer the current drought will be tough to break (I know it’s not an offical drought but wow, two months with almost no rain! That’s a drought. Anway, like your work and your forecast.

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