Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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Will this be summer’s last “hoorah”?

September 6th, 2012 by Matthew Leach

After a summery high of 82° today, many are probably thinking, “Well surely this is it. It’s September after all, and days in the 80s are usually hard to come by!” While it is true that such temperatures are much above or daily average high, which usually settles in the upper 60s/low 70s this time of year, it is not so uncommon to see such temperature readings, even late into the month.

Remember, the last September we experienced no 80 degrees readings was in 2005, and if this offers any consolation to you cold and snow lovers, that winter was anything but mesmerizing. In fact, some of the warmest Septembers in the past 5 years have seemed to produce equally as cold anomalies in the winter. As a bonus fun fact, here’s what the National Weather Service said today about 90 degree readings in September:

AT KSEA (SEA-TAC AIRPORT RECORDS) THERE HAVE BEEN TEN 90 PLUS DEGREE DAYS IN SEPTEMBER SINCE 1945. THE RECORD AT KSEA IS 94…THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 86 WOULD BE A TIE FOR THE SECOND WARMEST SEPTEMBER  7 SINCE 1945. 

So yeah…90 degrees is definitely less likely ;) So, the million dollar question is: are we done? Is it over? Can we start celebrating the reign (or rain?) of fall? Not so quick! In fact, tomorrow could rival as one of our warmest days this summer season. Here’s what it looks like as of now:

At face value, these temperatures will yield temperatures *only* in the mid 80s, perhaps even upper 80s in spots, but considering the time of year this will be a hot one.

Let us not forget, however, that even though we’ll be experiencing some-late season heat, night time temperatures will have an awful hard time following suit. With clearing, longer nights and relatively low dew points, over night temperatures will largely be in the 40s over the next several days. This kind of weather–warm sunny days and cool nights–is perfect for providing the many trees we have here with brightly colored fall leaves. So don’t worry, fall weather fans! You will be reimbursed ;)

Saturday and Sunday will be a gradual transition to cooler, cloudier weather. Highs will eventually dip into the upper 60s and low 70s Sunday and Monday with mostly cloudy skies, and we may even see a few showers late Sunday into Monday.

Still interested in brightly colored fall leaves? Then you’ll absolutely love the weather for next week. As it stands, we’ll rebound to slightly above normal high temperatures, cool low temperatures and fairly sunny days. So as far as tomorrow being summer’s last hoorah, I think the chances of us getting well into the 80s again are growing dimmer by the day. After all, the first day of fall is in just a couple weeks!

Gotta love late summer in Washington! :)

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

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4 Responses to “Will this be summer’s last “hoorah”?”

  1. Kim Says:

    I heard someone talk about a NO rain record, have we hit that kind of milestone?

  2. Matthew Leach Says:

    Kim–

    Good question! For most of the Kitsap Peninsula, or at least where the records are being kept, that 30+ day dry streak ended when we had measurable precipitation (and for some a significant downpour!) on August 29th. I’ll do a post that will dig deeper into where records stand compared to Seattle in a couple days :)

  3. Ron Says:

    Matt:

    Great post again. I have got to go to Tenino for a wedding tomorrow. Any chance we will see an earlier breakdown of the heat down south? I remember your blog mentioning these type of weather patterns finding relief along the Oregon coast and spreading north.

    Unrelated. I was thinking about the official weather station for Bremerton. Have you ever been there? Is it operated within guidelines? What do you think of it’s location, remoteness and higher in elevation?

    And I notice that often Bremerton fails to report on the local TV stations, e.g., KOMO 4.

  4. Matthew Leach Says:

    Hi Ron! Thank you for your comments. You are absolutely right, the Oregon coast usually cools dramatically ahead of the marine push. However, you won’t be far enough south to experience much of a relief tomorrow. It’ll still be warm with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 80s. The only good news is that morning fog will keep temperatures from getting too hot.

    As far as the Bremerton station, it’s apparently operated at the Bremerton National Airport itself (most weather monitors are planted in local airports), although I haven’t actually been there. It is an official station, and was even given an official airport code: KPWT (not sure what the letters mean). The National Weather service uses it for official temperatures in Bremerton:

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KPWTnum=72&raw=0

    From what I’ve heard it is about 400 ft in elevation and centered in a wide, open field. So typically it registers colder in the winter.

    Also, any current or high temperatures news stations report on from Bremerton are almost always a result of the Bremerton Airport numbers, even if they don’t normally acknowledge it. KOMO 4 is actually a good example of that.

    Good questions and insights!

    ~Matt

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