What a beautiful day! Bremerton National Airport recorded a high of 66 today while many other locations hovered on either side of 70 degrees. And yes, it was a chilly one this morning! Temperatures dipped as low as 39 degrees at Sanderson Field in Shelton and it will be another chilly one tonight. This is just one of many signs that fall is coming. Another sign? Increasingly wetter weather.

My sister called me a couple weeks ago from North Carolina and asked me why some raindrops are large and others are small. She noted how after a thunderstorm rolled through their area, the raindrops were impressively large and she had never seen anything like that in Washington. So why the difference and what causes it?

First of all, let’s begin with the cloud. Clouds are made up of water vapor which wraps itself around little particles called condensation nuclei (ie smoke/dust particles). As this process occurs, the little raindrop is born…but it’s sure a lightweight! “Newborn” rain droplets can be as small as 0.0001 centimeters in diameter! At this point these baby drops are too light to fly out on their own. Luckily, the clouds they are raised in are small enough to ensure a little game similar to that of bumper cars, except when a raindrop bumps into another raindrop it grows in size! Interestingly, these raindrops aren’t tear-shaped like most artists portray them to be. In fact, the average raindrop looks more like a hamburger bun!

The “bumper car” process continues until mom can’t take it anymore and kicks the now teenage raindrop out of the house (I think some parents are understanding the process of raindrop development MUCH better now! ;)). In other words, the drop becomes too heavy that it quite literally drops out of the sky and onto our umbrellas.

However, as the teenage water droplet leaves the home it picks up a lot along the way, especially with several updrafts, or sudden gusts of wind that cause the drop to run into other drops. During this process, it continues to grow and grow until finally it hits the ground.

So why doesn’t Washington have huge raindrops? Perhaps as these storms come off of the Pacific they don’t have as much time to build up juicy water droplets that often fall in the country’s midsection. Also, a lot of the rain we get isn’t very heavy or associated with much wind to begin with. So a windy, unstable and moist climate is the best bet for large raindrops!

So there you go, sis! That is one way of explaining the development of a raindrop 🙂

Speaking of those little guys (or big guys in North Carolina’s case!), we’re going to see some this upcoming week! After a beautiful and semi-warm weekend under partly to mostly sunny skies, clouds increase Sunday-Monday and now it appears the rain could fall Tuesday-Wednesday instead of Monday. Models are still flip-flopping, but luckily they’re not like raindrops and grow in size as they do! Otherwise, we’d be in for some pretty massive storms on this side of the mountains 😉

Have an awesome weekend everyone. Enjoy the sun!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

**A RED FLAG WARNING has been posted for the Kitsap Peninsula. Click here for more details**

So we made it to 93 degrees yesterday, a few degrees off the projected 97, but I don’t think many of you are complaining 😉 If anything, this heatwave turned out to be cooler than the one that we experienced just a few weeks ago! Hard to believe since 93 and 95 hardly feel any different. 🙂

Granted we usually average about 5 days a year at or above 90 degrees, I am confident in saying we’re done with our streak of 90 degree weather…at least, until the year 2013. There are a lot of natural reasons why this would be the case, but it looks like other factors could play a role in keeping us more on the normal to below normal side of things in the temperature department.

First, at the beginning of this month we reach our peak in high temperature averages. KOMO 4’s Scott Sistek drew this model to represent where we go from here:

On the other hand, here’s where we are on the precipitation scale:

So, statistically speaking, we’re just naturally going to be getting a bit colder and wetter from here. But you already knew that! The CPC, or Climate Prediction Center, released in their latest prognostic discussion that lowering heights (lower pressure) will be a dominant factor along the west coast and the northern tier of the U.S. We’re certainly not going to get downright cold by any means, but certainly a return to the more typical cool, cloudy and, at times, wet forecast.

As for the short term, however, rain won’t be a factor for the next 7 days (aside from, of course, the random thunderstorms that are predicted to show up this afternoon/evening, but even then it will mostly be dry lightning). Highs in the forecast period will fall below normal to the upper 60s and lower 70s and clouds will continue to be a morning and night event. You can always remain hopeful for the afternoon sun breaks each day, however, so we won’t be totally closed in.

Try to take some shots of the lightning tonight if you can! I’ll be traveling back to Silverdale tomorrow morning.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

**I’m currently in Utah right now and won’t have the most consistent access to temperatures and weather trends hour by hour. Please feel free to use the comment section below to update the readers on current temperatures and weather conditions where you are! That would be a great help. Thank you!**

**UPDATE: Thank you for the updates throughout the day 🙂 The official high temperature at Bremerton National Airport was 91 degrees, a few degrees cooler than anticipated. A wrinkle in the forecast may save us from significantly warmer temps tomorrow**

Good morning! It’s almost impossible for me to take a holiday from weather. I’ve tried very hard, but inevitably I found some downtime and as a result, you’ll get your heatwave update 🙂

So where are we as of 9:15 this morning? This will give us a good idea of where we’re headed with the high temperature today. Bremerton Airport shows a temperature of 77 degrees after spending only 15 minutes in the upper 50s last night, so reaching the low to mid 90s today is not a far-fetched idea at all. According to the airport, the record for today is 91 set in 2010 and I’d bet my dog and car we’ll get beyond that in most locations. How’s that for confidence? 😉 So here’s what it’s looking like around the sound today:

So a tad warmer than August 4th, when we found ourselves on either end of 90 degrees. The thermal trough moves north tonight and into tomorrow, which will mean a dramatic cool down and increase of clouds on the coast, but another hot day inland. Highs will be a little warmer than today, but there’s the off chance this thermal trough chugs it’s way through the area a little faster than anticipated which would keep the temperatures in the upper 80s verses near 100 degrees.  The record for Sea-Tac In’tl airport on Friday is 96 degrees set in 1977, and it looks like most areas around the sound could get close.

Then the trough moves on and we’re left with the back end of it. The cool down Saturday will be pretty dramatic, as it usually is, as highs will plummet to the upper 70s and low 80s. You’ll also notice more cloud cover which will pave the way for an increasing chance of thunderstorms Saturday evening. In the latest forecast discussion by the National Weather Service, it was pointed out that while there won’t be a lot of moisture for thunder “showers”, there could be quite a bit of lightning, which could pose a fire threat. As always in these situations, the best chance for thunderstorms is in the cascades.

More cooling takes place on Sunday and wouldn’t you know it…we’re back to normal. Morning clouds, afternoon clearing and highs in the mid 70s.

We’ll discuss the long range in a couple days, but for now try to stay cool and use plenty of sunblock! Also, please take careful note that it will be extremely dry for the foreseeable future, so be careful with and around fire. It has been an active wildfire year in the west and we don’t want it getting out of control in our neighborhoods!

Have a safe and fun day everyone!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Suggestions? Please contact me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

Hello all! I am sitting at a BYU cafeteria in Provo, UT right now attempting to update all of you on the incoming heatwave with a battery life at 16% ;). As is often the case with dramatic weather events around here, many details can be confused or inflated to come across as either more or less critical than the actual event really is. In other words, this time around, yeah it’s going to get hot, but it’s not anything we haven’t seen already.

In fact, temperatures will closely resemble our last 90+ degree streak earlier this month, when highs reached the upper 90s! 97 degrees was recorded at Bremerton National Airport on Sunday, August 5th and that’s the closest we’ve been to 100 degrees since July 2009. And there’s no evidence that the temperature recorded was a fluke. In fact, studying the hour by hour numbers on the 5th of August, it seems perfectly reasonable that 97 degrees was in fact reached.

The National Weather Service has also issued an Excessive Heat Watch as a result of the incoming heat, and it reads as such:

…EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 11 PM
PDT FRIDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT
FRIDAY. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING…THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL HAVE HIGH
  TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
  AFTERNOONS.

* TEMPERATURE…HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO
  MID 90S BOTH DAYS IN THE SEATTLE AREA…WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
  POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN AREAS. NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
  MAINLY IN THE 60S.

* IMPACTS…THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE AMONG THE
  HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR

Temperatures undoubtedly will be hot, but likely not much warmer than what we experienced earlier this month. Increased humidity, however, could make it feel hotter than it actually is. Records could also be broken once again, but we’ll take a more in depth look at that tomorrow.

Everything else is still expected to make an appearance: thunderstorms later Saturday into Sunday, a moderate cool down and getting back to seasonal norms next week.

I’ll do a more thorough post on what records could fall, how dramatic the cool down will be and what the long range forecast looks like 8-14 days from now. Trust me, you’re gonna like it! 😉

Have a fantastic evening, all!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

It seems like yesterday we were having this discussion about heatwaves and thermal troughs in Western Washington. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to refer you to Scott Sistek’s article on thermal troughs and get acquainted with the kind of weather pattern we’ll be experiencing within the next couple days.

As a side note, yesterday’s forecast temperature was admittedly a disaster, with a forecast of 79 and an actual high temperature of 88! It’s a daily struggle to find the right temperature for every day of the week. Sometimes you win the lottery, other times you don’t. I think that’s one of the reasons I’m so drawn to forecasting weather in this part of the world. As hard as it is, it definitely has its rewards. Not every heatwave, snowstorm, windstorm or arctic blast materializes exactly as expected, but the goal is to get as close as possible, and when it happens it’s the best feeling ever!

On the Kitsap Peninsula, there are a lot of factors that make our weather so unique (and challenging to forecast!) and one of those things is: offshore flow. We’ll have a discussion on winter time offshore flow in a few months, but for now we’ll focus on the summer east wind. As the oven door flies open and the hot desert air spills over the Cascade mountains, the foothills of Western Washington is the first to bake. This hot air then rapidly slides down the mountain and envelops the Seattle area, which in turn races across the Puget Sound, smothers the Kitsap Peninsula and then a part of that flow hits a barrier.

The Olympic Mountains serve as a barrier between us and the Pacific Ocean. Usually when cold air spills over from Eastern Washington, it settles in a “bowl” on the peninsula due to its high density and sinks. On the other hand, hot air usually just continues to circulate, leaving room for slightly warmer daytime temperatures on this side compared to Seattle (some examples include the July 2009 and early August 2012 heatwaves where Seattle started warmer at first due to offshore flow, but we ended warmer). And when you add a thermally induced trough of low pressure to the mix, which will be the case this time around, it gets even hotter. The reverse is often true for cold weather. But it’s a lot easier to scour out hot weather on the peninsula than it is cold weather, mainly because heat is less dense.

So there’s a little info on heatwaves and how the Kitsap Peninsula is affected during such events. And wouldn’t you know it, we’ll get to apply this principle a little bit this week! Tuesday will feature some morning clouds, thinning out to just high clouds and temperatures a few degrees cooler in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Offshore flow kicks in Tuesday night and you’ll notice Wednesday will feel a lot like today as highs will reach the mid and upper 80s.

Then we bake. Thursday and Friday will feature clear blue skies and hot temperatures in the low and mid 90s. We could break some more records this time around…we’ll see how likely it is to break them a little later on this week.

The weekend will be a bit of a wildcard as a tropical-like upper level trough will swing through the area, developing the risk for showers and thundershowers Saturday evening through Sunday. Keep your eyes peeled and your cameras charged! 🙂

And then next week will be the same old, same old as morning clouds and afternoon sun once again enter the picture to cool things off.

Don’t you love our wonderful natural air conditioning?

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com