Monthly Archives: June 2012

Northwest the exception to national warming statistics in May

I hope you all enjoyed the marvelous summer-time weather outside today! We were just one degree above the projected high temperature of 72 degrees, although I’m sure many of you felt it was much warmer. Don’t always trust those outdoor bank thermometers! They usually face the sun and make temperatures a good ten degrees higher than it is. For instance, at a bank today I saw a temperature reading of 82 degrees!

Speaking of warm weather, you may be surprised to find that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, issued a news story saying the U.S. as a whole experienced its second warmest May and hottest spring on record. But guess who the lucky exception was? The Northwest! Here’s a map of the temperature trends during May:

That’s right! Oregon had the wettest May on record, and we weren’t too far behind. It seems June will keep the trend going as rain system after rain system moves its way inland and brings the temperatures down with it.That will be the story for tonight, in fact. You have probably noticed those high clouds moving into the previously clear sky, and that’s the prelude to a cool and showery weather pattern for the next couple days. Though hard to believe, tomorrow will be showery and cool with highs in the mid 60s. This doesn’t look like last Thursday’s washout by any means, but it will certainly be a wet day.

Wednesday will feature more in the way of scattered showers and sunbreaks, although highs will dip even further to the 60 degree mark. Thursday is much of the same before Friday presents a chance at more 70 degree weather with partly sunny skies. Saturday and Sunday are kind of “sitting on the fence” when it comes to weather conditions, as some models indicate it could be dry, sunny and mild while others are leaning towards more wet and cool weather. The general consensus is, however, that cool weather will return by at least early next week.

So if you didn’t get a fair shot at today’s great weather, you always have this upcoming weekend! 🙂

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

(to see the NOAA’s full story, click here).

forecastingkitsap@live.com

Casting a shadow

Hope you all had a great weekend, as, for the most part, it was dry and warmer than many days during this past week.

I was in South Africa during Punxsutawney Phil’s last weather prediction on February 2nd, but I heard he saw his shadow which meant six more weeks of winter. But I think many of us agree that the “six more weeks” forecast was far too conservative. Since January 2011, we have had only one month above normal in temperatures, that being September 2011, and even then temperatures were only 0.5 degrees above normal. The past two winters have featured windstorms, flooding, snow, ice, freezing rain and record low temperatures. Indeed, the Northwest is going through quite the cool trend that doesn’t seem to be ending anytime too soon.

For those who voted on the poll that they want warmer, 80-90 degree weather…well, it’ll be a while before we get there. But for the majority who voted on partly sunny skies and highs in the 70s, you may enjoy at least a portion of the following forecast because there will be a few opportunities to “cast shadows” in the sun!

Today’s high temperature of 64 degrees was definitely a relief for many and according to the rain gauge, we haven’t had measurable precipitation for a whole two days! It’s a miracle!

From June 6th to June 8th, Forecasting Kitsap blog reader Kim recorded 2 1/2” of rain in her rain gauge in Silverdale:

Thanks, Kim, for the picture! And luckily we won’t be seeing any numbers like that for quite a while.

Tomorrow will be another breather day with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. After nearly two weeks of cool and wet weather, we’ll finally make the 70 mark. But this respite of 70 degree weather won’t last too long as a small system rolls through to plauge our Tuesday. If you’re planning any outdoor activities, Monday will definitely be the better day.

Wednesday and Thursday will be cool and showery with highs in the low 60s, but this coming weekend (at least the first half of it) looks great. Skies will clear on Friday, and highs will rise to the upper 60s and low 70s again before our next little rain system on Sunday.

So it still looks like a lot of back and forth weather from here on out, but at least we should stay away for the 50s for highs with heavy rain. Knock on wood, but I think the worst is behind us!

Have a great evening,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

How wet did we get?

**Side note: The 25 degree reading at Bremerton airport has not been confirmed and it is likely a typo, however a Forecasting Kitsap blog viewer reported a record of 25 degrees in Belfair, and WeatherUnderground even puts Bremerton Airport’s low temperature at 24 degrees. Stay tuned!

Just a quick post this evening. It was sure a sloppy day as a rather sizable rainstorm by any month’s standards barreled through the area. The National Weather Service recorded 0.52” of rain had fallen by 7:55 am, and the six hour total by about 11:15 am brought us to 0.75”! This definitely exceeded the amount of rain weather models were suggesting as of yesterday. Seattle was only slightly “drier”, with 0.65” of rain recorded.

Depending on where you live, you might have had different statistics. A large Olympic rain-shadow shielded many residents in the Port Angeles area from the brunt of the storm. Weather stations out there recorded a paltry 0.01” of rain…for the whole day! It’s amazing how the topography of Western Washington makes so many different weather senarios!

Luckily things calm down from here. Tomorrow won’t be spectacular in most people’s books, but it will be a touch warmer and brighter. Only a few showers will linger with occasional sunbreaks in between. Highs will reach near 60 degrees in most areas.

The weekend still looks half and half. Saturday will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy with only a few spotty showers in the morning, but from there we should remain dry until later Wednesday afternoon with highs near 70.

Enjoy your evening everyone!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

Winter time temperatures recorded at Bremerton Airport

**Don’t forget to vote! What is your ideal summer weather? Answer the poll on the right hand sidebar**

Ok, it wasn’t THAT cold this morning, but it was sure close to our average low temperature in December! Around the sound lows this morning dipped in the upper 30s to low 40s, making for a rather cold start to an early June day. I don’t know if you happened to come across the weather data from Bremerton airport today, but I was surprised to see a low temperature reading of 27 degrees recorded on the National Weather Service site that tracks hourly temperatures.

So was it 27 degrees this morning? No, not likely. Because many other stations recorded upper 30s to near 40 as lows (Shelton included), I’d say it was probable we were in the 30s, especially the locations closer to the Olympic Mountains. Because high temperatures haven’t even been able to reach 60 degrees for the past three days, any night time clearing that occurs (like last night) will result in rather chilly low temperatures. It also probably felt a lot colder this morning because the humidity was near 100%! 43 degrees and 100% humidity in the early hours of the morning isn’t the most comfortable combination!

Rest assured, night time temperatures will get a little warmer, but the day time temperatures will still struggle…that is, until the weekend. But first let’s talk about tomorrow’s rain event:

This is a total 3 hour precipitation map ending at 11:00 am Thursday morning. For those who don’t read weather geek, this amounts to near 0.50” in the AM hours of Thursday. So, it would be safe to say tomorrow morning’s commute will be a messy one with cool temperatures and heavy rain. Perhaps if there is any good news to be shared, it’s that the wind will be light. The rain will taper off to showers by the afternoon and a few sunbreaks may be spotted, but they’ll be far and few in between as showers rotate throughout the area. Highs will remain in the mid 50s.

Friday will also feature rain, clouds and cool temperatures, but the rain won’t be nearly as heavy or persistent, and we may even catch a few sunbreaks, but to most it will be just like another November-like rainy day.

Saturday through Monday will be progressive in the 1) sun department and 2) temperature department. We’ll gradually say “good ridance!” to the steady rain and introduce partly to mostly cloudy skies for our weekend with only a slight chance of showers, with the threat most likely on Saturday, although any shower that does pop up will be brief.

Monday we have the opportunity to reach the low 70s and stay near 70 degrees through the middle of next week. Showers arrive earlier in the day Wednesday, but as of now it looks insignificant and the weather should be pretty stable most of next week.

The good news is, long range weather models are still teasing us with some classic Washington summer weather (70s/low 80s) for the middle/latter part of the month. Cross your fingers!

Have a good day,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

June showers bring…?

They say April showers bring May flowers, so what do June showers bring? I guess we’ll find out soon enough as this week looks to be filled with several bouts with rain and chilly daytime temperatures. In fact, today’s high temperature was nearly 15 degrees cooler than normal! At this rate, tomorrow and Wednesday look very similar as cooler, unsettled weather will linger leaving clouds, showers and highs in the 50s the main theme over the next 48 hours.

The real “rain event”, at least by June standards, should arrive by Thursday as thickening clouds and steady rain will be the theme. Highs will also struggle to make it much beyond 50. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to hear reports of Kitsap locations staying in the low 50s all day, nearing 20 degrees below normal! Friday and Saturday will unfortunately follow the same trend: mostly cloudy skies, highs in the mid to upper 50s and showers.

Forecast models don’t show signs of warming or drying until Sunday (although earlier models were suggesting we could go all day Saturday dry as well…we’ll see…). Skies will partially clear and showers will decrease. This will allow temperatures to scoot their way close to normal in the mid 60s.

At this point light has officially been spotted at the end of the tunnel. Forecast models have been consistent in showing temperatures in the low to mid 70s by next Monday and beyond, but for now we’ll be a little conservative until we see more model agreement. But dare I say, there are projections for the 80s later this month?

So maybe that’s what June showers bring! 80 degree weather 🙂 Only time will tell.

Have a great evening everyone!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

Long Range Thoughts: Warmer weather coming, but cool conditions to continue for now

So much for mowing the lawn…

The doppler radar shows pockets of rain showers all along the peninsula, and one of the heavier cells happened to rest over my home in Silverdale long enough to make the grass too damp to mow at the present moment. Just moments before the rain started, I went out to take advantage of the fact the grass was actually drying after yesterday’s evening rain showers! Yes, although it’s June, we are still technically in the “spring showers” season and will be for the foreseeable future, which for most weather models is 16 days.

Long range weather projections show us getting near 2” of rain in the next two weeks or so which would be above the normal 1.49” for the month of June. Although I wasn’t here to experience the 2010 or 2011 summers, looking at historical records, it appears these were two unusually cool and wet summers, particularly the months of June and July, and both these years had cool and wet May’s that overlapped into June. But, the summer weather always seemed to make a comeback in the months of August and September, particularly in 2010.

We may be singing the same tune we’ve been singing for the past two years: a cool start to summer, but the warmer weather will arrive. Currently the forecast models show a cool and showery pattern over the next week or so with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, whereas the normal high temperature is around 70 degrees. It doesn’t appear we’ll crack 70 until maybe the week after next (15th-17th of June) when a ridge of high pressure builds in and provides warmer, drier air to the area. But even then, temperatures by that time will be around average in the low to mid 70s.

My summer long range forecast is coming! I’m still doing some research in between my busy work schedule, but I should have that issued within the next week or so.

Stay well everyone and have a great weekend,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com