Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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Your 4th of July forecast

June 29th, 2012 by Matthew Leach

The past few days have definitely offered many of us some hope for a “brighter future” as far as summer is concerned, although there are still a few wrinkles in the forecast to overcome before we can kick up our feet and relax. The weather models have been showing less and less in the way of intrusive rain systems over the next week or so and more in the way of sunshine and blue sky. However, tomorrow won’t exactly be the shining example of what we have to look forward to.

Wouldn’t you know it…the weekend looks pretty cool and showery, with Saturday being especially wet. Most of this rain will occur in the morning, although if you live in central/north Kitsap, don’t be surprised to see showers continue throughout the day as a Puget Sound Convergence Zone may set up. Don’t remember what that is? Here’s a picture illustrating this unique, yet frequent weather event:

Skies clear on Sunday which will pave the way for a mostly sunny and “warm” day on Monday (that is, if you find 74 degrees warm :)). Clouds increase throughout the day, however, ahead of our “last” truly wet weather system on Tuesday. Highs will nosedive to the mid 60s before making a dramatic comeback through the rest of next week.

So what does this mean for your 4th of July plans? I see virtually no rain whatsoever to dampen your patriotic spirits Wednesday evening. Highs will be in the low 70s which means it will be a chilly night for watching fireworks as temperatures will drop to the 50s by dusk.

And then, as alluded to, the rest of next week looks progressively warmer, sunnier and a lot more like the REAL Washington summer we all know and love. Sure, there are signs for 80+ degree weather in the future, but we’ll talk about that once I see more consistency with the weather models.

As of now, enjoy next week. We’ll see more sun next week than we’ve seen for…maybe months ;)

Have a great weekend,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

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2 Responses to “Your 4th of July forecast”

  1. P D Dinkles Says:

    I was listening to Cliff Mass this afternoon. I had always predicted July 5th as the beginning of Summer. He said it is July 12.

    He also had some comments in regards to the lack of climatic impact on the Pacific Northwest. Dr Mass of the UW Atmospheric Department said it is because the NE Pacific Ocean off our coast has not warmed yet. In a decade or so the northern Pacific will also warm and we will loose our atmospheric immunity.

    TV Weather has a tendency to hype weather both good and bad. You can watch predicted sunny weekends disappear.

  2. Matthew Leach Says:

    Thanks for the comment. It’s true the Pacific hasn’t warmed yet. We are currently in what is called the -PDO cycle, PDO standing for Pacific Decadal Oscillation. That can largely determine the type of weather we get. Since 2008 we’ve been in a -PDO phase, which can sometimes last anywhere from 10-30 years.

    And I am aware of Cliff Mass’s opinions about TV weathercasters. TV meteorologists and meteorologists are essentially the same thing, only TV weathermen are generally known for simplifying complicated information for the public audience, which is something we all need.

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