Long Range Thoughts: Drier, but still cool

Hello everyone! I hope you all enjoyed this past weekend despite the rain and cloud cover. We’ve been playing the summer waiting game the past several weeks as weather system after weather system pummels into our region while most of the nation is under scorching heat. Well, there’s some good news and bad news in the long range weather pattern.

I’ve always been one to get the bad news over with, so let’s take care of that business first 🙂 Our monthly average rainfall amount decreases significantly the further we get into the summer season. As a matter of fact, July is typically our driest month with rainfall totals only amounting to 0.79” for the month (which we were able to accomplish in just a couple days this weekend!). But just because we don’t have the Pacific fire hose aimed at us in the summer doesn’t mean that the temperature department will be salvaged. Long range trends are pointing to a continuation of cool weather to last through the first week of July, translating in high temperatures not reaching far beyond the mid 70s. Indeed, true summer is likely weeks away in the temperature department.

However, don’t fret just yet. These same long range projections are still offering at least some hope for summer weather fans. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting below normal precipitation in our near future. In fact, the 16 day weather output shows us receiving no more than 0.42” of rain in the forecast period.

Now, sure, the probability level is pretty low at 40%, but the odds have been increasingly in our favor to have a drier weather pattern for the start to July. That would certainly be welcome for the 4th of July festivities we’re all planning!

In terms of this week, however, we have a few rain systems to get through first. Tuesday will be largely dry with plenty of sunbreaks and Wednesday looks absolutely beautiful. Skies will clear and highs will rise to the low and mid 70s.

Thursday through Sunday, however, we’re going to have to fight through more in the way of showers with Saturday looking like rainiest day of  the new week. Highs will remain cool in the mid and upper 60s.

Then once we get to Sunday and beyond, get ready for warmer, drier weather. Highs will bounce back into the low 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies. And that’s when we get to the “below normal precipitation” part of our forecast. Yeah, you’ll likely be bundled up as you watch the 4th of July fireworks, but at least the odds of being washed out doesn’t look good 🙂

Have a great evening everyone!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com