Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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Archive for June, 2012

Your 4th of July forecast

Friday, June 29th, 2012

The past few days have definitely offered many of us some hope for a “brighter future” as far as summer is concerned, although there are still a few wrinkles in the forecast to overcome before we can kick up our feet and relax. The weather models have been showing less and less in the way of intrusive rain systems over the next week or so and more in the way of sunshine and blue sky. However, tomorrow won’t exactly be the shining example of what we have to look forward to.

Wouldn’t you know it…the weekend looks pretty cool and showery, with Saturday being especially wet. Most of this rain will occur in the morning, although if you live in central/north Kitsap, don’t be surprised to see showers continue throughout the day as a Puget Sound Convergence Zone may set up. Don’t remember what that is? Here’s a picture illustrating this unique, yet frequent weather event:

Skies clear on Sunday which will pave the way for a mostly sunny and “warm” day on Monday (that is, if you find 74 degrees warm :)). Clouds increase throughout the day, however, ahead of our “last” truly wet weather system on Tuesday. Highs will nosedive to the mid 60s before making a dramatic comeback through the rest of next week.

So what does this mean for your 4th of July plans? I see virtually no rain whatsoever to dampen your patriotic spirits Wednesday evening. Highs will be in the low 70s which means it will be a chilly night for watching fireworks as temperatures will drop to the 50s by dusk.

And then, as alluded to, the rest of next week looks progressively warmer, sunnier and a lot more like the REAL Washington summer we all know and love. Sure, there are signs for 80+ degree weather in the future, but we’ll talk about that once I see more consistency with the weather models.

As of now, enjoy next week. We’ll see more sun next week than we’ve seen for…maybe months ;)

Have a great weekend,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com


A closer look at “fire weather”

Wednesday, June 27th, 2012

From time to time in this blog, we discuss a little bit about weather events outside our bubble that are of popular interest and concern, such as the devastating wildfires wreaking havoc on regions in and around Colorado Springs, CO. In a CNN article posted just a few hours ago, weather is referred to as “an enemy” with regards to maintaing the growing fires. So far, 35,000 residents have fled their homes in anticipation for worsening conditions.

Fire weather can consist of any of the following: extreme heat, high winds, thunderstorms and/or very dry conditions. Currently, the weather in Colorado will feature all of the above as highs over the next several days will stay in the 90s with a chance of thunderstorms. Tonight will be an especially frustrating night for firefighters as winds could gust as high as 30 mph. To read more about the fires, please click here.

Remember to keep those suffering from these devastating fires in your thoughts and prayers. The best thing they could have right now is some rain, although for the next seven days it looks pretty dry.

In this part of  the western U.S., our weather will be quite run-of-the-mill. Tomorrow will be the start of an unfortunate downhill trend for cloudier, cooler and wetter weather through at least the first half of the weekend. Next week looks to start off beautifully with highs stretching into the low and mid 70s under mostly sunny skies (maybe even mid and upper 70s Tuesday).

I won’t ruin the forecast by telling you what happens after that ;) For now, enjoy the weather we have right now!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com


Long Range Thoughts: Drier, but still cool

Monday, June 25th, 2012

Hello everyone! I hope you all enjoyed this past weekend despite the rain and cloud cover. We’ve been playing the summer waiting game the past several weeks as weather system after weather system pummels into our region while most of the nation is under scorching heat. Well, there’s some good news and bad news in the long range weather pattern.

I’ve always been one to get the bad news over with, so let’s take care of that business first :) Our monthly average rainfall amount decreases significantly the further we get into the summer season. As a matter of fact, July is typically our driest month with rainfall totals only amounting to 0.79” for the month (which we were able to accomplish in just a couple days this weekend!). But just because we don’t have the Pacific fire hose aimed at us in the summer doesn’t mean that the temperature department will be salvaged. Long range trends are pointing to a continuation of cool weather to last through the first week of July, translating in high temperatures not reaching far beyond the mid 70s. Indeed, true summer is likely weeks away in the temperature department.

However, don’t fret just yet. These same long range projections are still offering at least some hope for summer weather fans. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting below normal precipitation in our near future. In fact, the 16 day weather output shows us receiving no more than 0.42” of rain in the forecast period.

Now, sure, the probability level is pretty low at 40%, but the odds have been increasingly in our favor to have a drier weather pattern for the start to July. That would certainly be welcome for the 4th of July festivities we’re all planning!

In terms of this week, however, we have a few rain systems to get through first. Tuesday will be largely dry with plenty of sunbreaks and Wednesday looks absolutely beautiful. Skies will clear and highs will rise to the low and mid 70s.

Thursday through Sunday, however, we’re going to have to fight through more in the way of showers with Saturday looking like rainiest day of  the new week. Highs will remain cool in the mid and upper 60s.

Then once we get to Sunday and beyond, get ready for warmer, drier weather. Highs will bounce back into the low 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies. And that’s when we get to the “below normal precipitation” part of our forecast. Yeah, you’ll likely be bundled up as you watch the 4th of July fireworks, but at least the odds of being washed out doesn’t look good :)

Have a great evening everyone!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com 


Washington summer tradition continues

Saturday, June 23rd, 2012

The weather cooperated (at least for the most part) for the Rock and Roll marathon that took place in Seattle today. Despite periods of rain, it was overall cool and pleasant running weather. Of course, to most it probably felt more like a November run than a late June one.

Most of my family is in Utah right now where it could very well reach 100 degrees tomorrow. And while that might sound nice to some around here, in the outskirts of the Salt Lake City area they are currently battling wild fires and there are warnings posted for potentially new fires springing up due to high winds and very dry conditions. So I guess no matter where you go, there will always be some troubling weather event to be concerned about.

Our burden for the time being will be much less dramatic than the blazing fires to our southeast. In fact, it will be the exact opposite. Today’s high temperature was about 11 degrees below normal at a ”frigid” 59 degrees. Will there be any relief for tomorrow? Things are definitely looking up as clouds are already clearing as we speak. We’ll see some residual showers tonight which will give way to clearing into tomorrow morning. So our Sunday should be generally partly sunny with showers from time to time. Highs will rise to the mid 60s.

Monday will be very similar, but Tuesday through Thursday looks like our terrific trio of nice weather days this coming week. Skies will be partly sunny with highs in the upper 60s Tuesday to mid and upper 70s Thursday (which is kind of like a carbon copy of this past week!)

Then…wouldn’t you know it…clouds thicken and showers enter the picture once again for our Friday and into the weekend. Still no signs of incredible warmth to envelope the region anytime too soon, but I’ll keep my eyes on the long range ;) Have a great weekend,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com


Old man winter hacks into the National Weather Service

Thursday, June 21st, 2012

So who remembered yesterday was the first day of summer? Be honest!

With the hustle and bustle of yesterday’s work and other projects, I forgot it was the first day of summer! It may not have felt like it to most, as highs only managed to reach the low 70s, but today’s high of 75 degrees might have reminded a few of you that summer is indeed here.

We all know the temperature gauge at Bremerton Airport has a few glicthes from time to time, but the temperature reading of 16 degrees yesterday morning at 5:55 am was quite a major glitch. The only thing I can think of is Old Man Winter is at it again and competitve as ever. Despite the temperature extremes yesterday, rest assured it didn’t get to 16 degrees and we won’t get that cold for quite a while. However, it will definitely get a lot cooler over the next 48 hours.

You might have noticed the increasing clouds this afternoon. That is because we have increasing onshore flow which will make for a rather cool and cloudy day tomorrow, especially as opposed to today’s “perfect” weather (well, at least according to the poll 50% of you think today’s weather was perfect ;)). Highs will cool to the low and mid 60s.

Showers and clouds will linger into our Saturday and Sunday, although we’re not looking at anything close to a washout. Just your typical Washington summer drizzle. Highs will again struggle to make it much past the low 60s.

And then…ahhh…clearing and warmer weather for next week. How clear? How warm? These are two VERY good questions that I probably shouldn’t answer with too much confidence yet. But models are trending towards a more seasonable and dry weather pattern for next week. Keep your fingers crossed! Old Man Winter has done enough damage already!

Have a great evening,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com


A (small) taste of summer

Wednesday, June 20th, 2012

It’s a shame this forecast couldn’t be for the weekend, but nonetheless the next 36 hours will be beautiful and could finally showcase Western Washington’s famous “perfect summer weather”.

Today is already off to a wonderful start. As expected, skies are mostly clear (yes, I did just turn around to look out the window. I have to be sure! ;)) and the temperatures are rising. Expect highs to make it to the upper 60s and low 70s around most of Kitsap County today.

If you voted partly sunny skies and highs in the 70s as your favorite summer weather, get ready for tomorrow! Forecasting models have fluctuated a bit on temperatures, but the general consensus is that we’ll at least make it to the low 70s, if not the mid 70s. This will be our first true taste of summer since…May!

Unfortunately, just like May’s warm spell, this one will end rather abruptly as several systems move through the area making for a pretty cool and cloudy weekend. Highs will range from the mid 60s Friday to lower 60s Saturday. Both days will feature periods of rain and much cooler temperatures.

Luckily, next week looks sunnier and drier than the past several weeks have been, but we’ll still struggle to make it much beyond 70 degrees. Something tells me that won’t be a problem with too many people ;)

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com


Which day this week will be 70 degrees?

Monday, June 18th, 2012

It seems like the last few weeks have featured at least one 70 degree weather day each, most of which occurring over the weekend, so the popular question now is: when will our next 70 degree weather be? Our last flirt with 70 degrees was Saturday, and after today a lot of us still think we’re overdue for truly warm weather. After all, today’s high temperature was only 59 degrees!

Well, I have some good news for you: we’re up for perhaps a couple days of 70+ degree weather before we get cruelly tossed back into the cloudy, wet, cool summer weather pattern we’re getting accustomed to.

Tomorrow will be a lot like today, although we should see a bit more in the way of sunbreaks in the afternoon. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today in the low 60s (isn’t it sad that the low 60s is considered warmer?)

But then we have Wednesday and Thursday. We have a ridge of high pressure build in through the day Tuesday that will allow for warmer temperatures and clearing skies for mid week this week. Wednesday should bring us near 70 under partly sunny skies, but it’s Thursday that we should have our eyes on for much warmer temperatures than we’ve been experiencing. Right now, weather models are advertising mid 70s for our day on Thursday, which could be our warmest day this month if that pans out.

You knew this was coming, but Friday through the new weekend looks like…well, most of this month. Mostly cloudy, chilly and showery. I’ll do a long range weather update in a couple days and we’ll take a peek at what July looks like right now…it doesn’t hurt to dream!

Have a great day,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com


Quick Friday Update

Friday, June 15th, 2012

Just a quick update for this beautiful Friday afternoon! Certainly not as warm as anticipated with a high temperature of 68 degrees so far, but the good news is it won’t be too much cooler than that tomorrow. But, for that to happen, Mother Nature is asking for something in exchange: the sun. You see those high clouds moving in? That’s the prelude to a warm front pegged to hit the region tonight into tomorrow morning. For those living in the northern half of the Kitsap Peninsula, expect a damp and humid start to your Saturday, while central and south Kitsap will see the showers in the later morning hours (say around 11 am).

This won’t be a washout by any means, but it will feel humid with low clouds and showers/drizzle. As Saturday wears on, central and south Kitsap should escape fairly dry, but north Kitsap is pegged for further rain showers until sunset.

Our next shot at rain looks likely Monday morning, but even then it will be short lived, and the forecast for next week looks pretty dry and gradually warmer. Thursday at this point looks like our warmest day this month with highs “soaring” into the mid 70s :)

Gotta go! It could be a week before I enjoy this kind of weather again :) Have a great weekend,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com


Antarctic sea ice grows, Arctic sea ice shrinks

Thursday, June 14th, 2012

 

(click picture for a larger view)

While May 2012 was globally a record warm month, it’s interesting how the Southern Hemisphere doesn’t have any warm weather anomalies (in fact, Antarctic sea ice grew!), yet the northern hemisphere seems to be carrying all the warm weight. Why do you think that is?

 


Long range forecast predicts cool weather through the end of June

Wednesday, June 13th, 2012

At the office today, one of the orthodontic assistants said, “Today looks more like a typical October day than a June day…”

Of course, it looked that way, but I was surprised to see the temperature gauge here in Silverdale never managed to make it past 55 degrees. And, as a reference point, that’s only a couple degrees warmer than our average monthly high temperature in November! Who would have thought that today’s temperatures still wouldn’t qualify as normal in October?

I also checked some long range weather resources online and they are all forecasting cool and showery weather to continue all the way until…July 1st. Why July 1st? Because that’s as far as the long range models will go. Disappointing to say the least, although that doesn’t mean between now and the 1st of July we’ll be stuck under a sopping wet blanket of clouds! In fact, despite the long range forecasts, we have spurts of pretty nice weather coming up! Especially for the majority of Forecasting Kitsap readers who seem to prefer partly sunny skies, a slight breeze and highs in the 70s :)

We’ll have to go through another day of the same tomorrow with mostly cloudy skies and very cool temperatures in the low 60s. We may sneak in the occasional sunbreak, but overall it will be a pretty boring weather day.

Friday and Saturday deserve a little more attention. Recent weather trends have been advertising some pretty mild weather for the early part of our weekend. Both days look partly (if not mostly!) sunny skies with highs in the mid 70s. Saturday may feature a little more in the way of clouds and slightly cooler temperatures, but either way we’re looking at comfortable weekend weather.

Saturday night the ridge of high pressure breaks apart and we’re left with a threat for some showers on Sunday, just in case you missed them! Highs will cool back down to the mid 60s.

And, as previously discussed, the cool weather trend continues into next week. Now, if you don’t mind, I’m going to look up some cool weather stories around the globe. Kitsap weather just isn’t doing it for me ;)

Stay safe everyone,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com


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