Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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A “Flaky” Forecast Today…

December 29th, 2009 by Matthew Leach

UPDATE 6:43 PM

Bummer. So close. In fact, we were in a much better situation to receive snow this evening than two weeks ago. Dewpoints and temperatures are in check, we are just lacking one major thing: precip intensity. It is looking very bleak on the radar at the moment. If we had started this thing off with heavy precip, it would have been snow and likely stayed snow until late tonight. But it never ended up coming in as intense.

The Shelton area has been seeing a wintry mix, though. Their precip was heavier than ours is now. I guess now we have to wait for January to deliver the goods!

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UPDATE–4:00 PM

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the greater Portland area, something that caught all the TV/NWS meteorologists off guard. Reading the latest NWS discussion, here is what is said:

.SHORT TERM...
UPDATE...PRECIPITATION TURNED TO ALL SNOW IN THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
AREA DUE TO THE WETBULB EFFECT AND THIS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SW INTERIOR...SOUTHERN PART OF THE HOOD CANAL AND
THE IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS.  I THOUGHT ABOUT IT EARLIER BUT DIDN`T
THINK IT WOULD MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.  LOOKING AT WHAT IS GOING ON
TO THE SOUTH I MADE A LAST MINUTE CHANGE TO THE ZONES AND ADDED
POSSIBLY STARTING AS SNOW WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE.

This situation is certainly intriguing, primarily because we are starting out the way Portland did before the snow hit: 37 degrees with a dewpoint below freezing. Still no reports of snow in the Shelton area…in fact, moderate rain and fog is being reported with a temp of 34 degrees, but light snow has been reported around Chehalis.

This is one of those moments where I wish against the Seattle NWS ;)

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2:00 PM—

I’ve been tracking a storm system approaching the area for the past several hours, and I’m thinking we could eke out a few snowflakes with this. I’m very hesitant to say much more than this after my “3rd degree burn” of a forecast two weeks ago, but reports of sticking, moderate snow are escalating in the Portland/Vancouver area, despite temperatures in the mid 30s. Why? The very low dewpoints.

The dewpoint at Bremerton National Airport is 30 degrees with a current temp (as of 2:35 pm) of 37 degrees. That’s low enough to squeeze out some snow. That along with moderately heavy precip and cooling temps this evening increase our chances.

Stay tuned to this blog post for updates…!

~Matt


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44 Responses to “A “Flaky” Forecast Today…”

  1. Colleen Smidt Says:

    Now that Christmas is over…Let it SNOW!

  2. Kris Says:

    I have a friend in Portland, she’s posted pics of their snow. So pretty! Hope we get some!

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