Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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Updated Snowfall Maps and Winter Weather Advisory Issued

December 14th, 2009 by Matthew Leach

**A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is still in effect for the Hood Canal area until 4 AM Tuesday**

UPDATED 5:30 PM

I should’ve known light rain/drizzle at 10 am this morning was a bad sign. Of course, me being the snow lover I am, I held out hope. Alas, it appears we are just too darn mild for snow at this time and many of us will end this cold blast without seeing a dramatic snow event. The Brinnon/Hoodsport area is pretty chilly still with temperatures around 33/34 degrees, meaning a rain/snow mix or very wet snow will continue through the night until all the cold air is scoured out of the area.

I expect, for most of the Kitsap Peninsula, a rain/snow mix at best…maybe a spurt of snow in the heavier showers, but overall we’re getting just about the most rotten deal (this is coming from a snow enthusiast…I have my biases ;) ). Isn’t it just frustrating we wasted a whole week of record setting cold—and not even just “record setting”, but “coldest string of temperatures in recorded history!”—under sunny skies. Grrrr…I need to take my mind off something other than weather tonight.

I guess here’s one positive way of looking at it: it’s not even winter yet! :)

~Matt

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UPDATED 12:30 PM

Hope shouldn’t be thrown out the window…yet. While a heavy mist/drizzle is making things wet and messy outside, the real blob of precip has yet to arrive. Temperatures are between 34-36 degrees right now, so until the heavier stuff comes (which will be moreso around 2-3) expect cloudy skies and mist.

This has bust potential written all over it, though. Like I said, if we had gotten colder last night our chances of having flurries right now instead of light rain would have been high. Those who live close to the Canal are still set to receive snow this afternoon. I think the chances of a good coating away from the Canal, however, are diminishing. We’ll see.

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UPDATED 10:00 AM

It really was all dependent on how soon the southerly winds would pick up and how much cold air we could bottle up from last night. For snow lovers you have the cold on your side right now with temperatures just a little above freezing. You also have the wind on your side because right now…nada. When we start seeing a southerly wind, you can say goodbye to long-lasting snow. That will scour us out real quick. We also have a good batch of precipitation heading our way, which is obviously a key ingredient for snow.

However, I don’t think we got cold enough last night. I would’ve felt a little better about our chances of longer lasting snowfall all across the peninsula if temperatures dropped below 30 last night. Where we stand now, it won’t take much to boost those temperatures to the lethal “rain area”.

So precipitation should start to move into the area by noon or so with the best chances for accumulating snow near the Hood Canal and with elevation. Those in downtown Bremerton/Silverdale or on Bainbridge Island probably won’t get much of anything…maybe a trace. But climb up a few hundred feet (like on Ridgetop) and you’ll likely see the white stuff stick.

It won’t last long, however, as everything should turn to mush by Tuesday morning.

Let me know when you start seeing snow! (Hey! That rhymed!)

~Matt


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42 Responses to “Updated Snowfall Maps and Winter Weather Advisory Issued”

  1. Kris Says:

    Bummer! I’m at 300ft about 5 miles east of Belfair, I hope I see at least some snow!

  2. Matthew Leach Says:

    Oh, you’ll definitely see something, Kris. Your location and elevation will certainly give you the advantage over others.

    Bad news is, Bremerton Airport is already at 36 degrees. While there’s no wind currently, the milder Pacific influence already seems to be kicking in…

  3. Colleen Smidt Says:

    It was raining in West Bremerton when I left the house at 7:20 this morning. Dry by the time I arrived at work in Poulsbo. Just a very fine mist up here a couple of times this morning.

  4. Delmont C Roosevelt Says:

    As much as snow is a mess sometimes, I was hopeful we would at least get a shot. We suffered through a few days of single digits and the teens last week and I was sure we would get a little. It’s raining out. The snow doesn’t bother me, as long as the power stays on, with the power out it is not nearly as enjoyable.
    Last year on Dec 14, I took a picture of my horse and donkey outside and there was snow on the ground. This year, just rain.

  5. Kris Says:

    I really don’t think i’ll see any snow. This makes me cry. :( We’ve been having a heavy drizzle all day, not a flake in sight.

  6. Matthew Leach Says:

    Everyone:

    Thanks for the reports! Even though they’re depressing ;) Remember, the advisory takes effect at 1 PM. This is the pre-frontal stuff. Later this afternoon is when we have the realistic shot at some snow. Let me know when (or if?) you see it!

    ~Matt

  7. Ashley Says:

    I live out in Keyport and as of 1:12 it’s a heavy mist here. Hoping to see some white stuff today.

  8. Colleen Smidt Says:

    Well the school districts are getting on board the possible snow wagon now. Bremerton just emailed out the Winter Advisory info and a reminder to parents of what to do if it does snow.. You can view it here….

    http://www.bremertonschools.org/

  9. Colleen Smidt Says:

    Hey Matt. How about a Winter Break forecast for the kid-o’s while they are out of school? December 18th to January 3rd. Nick and his buddies were asking.

    Thanks!

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