So How Much Snow, Mr. Weatherman?
December 11th, 2009 by Matthew Leach“?”
I think that sums it up well 
Actually, I’m a little more confident
about my forecast than I was a couple days ago, so hopefully I can
clear up some snow questions this evening.
First of all, it was another very chilly morning with a low of 14 degrees and a high of 37 which, after what we’ve been through, seems downright balmy! But we’re not completely done with the cold weather. Tomorrow through most of Monday we’ll see highs in the 30s, with warmer air filtering in later Tuesday morning.
So, let’s get to it:
Saturday: While likely snowy in the Portland/Vancouver area, we will be mostly cloudy and dry with highs in the mid 30s. Of course, seeing a few flurries here and there isn’t out of the question, but overall it’ll just be a cold and cloudy day.
Sunday: Still a rather cloudy day, but this time a Puget Sound Convergence Zone (PSCZ) forms and it could skiff the northern areas of Kitsap County (Kingston area) during the day. Still not expecting a lot, but you may see some rain/snow or snow showers during the day Sunday. There’s always the possibility the PSCZ sags south, dropping some snow to most of Kitsap County as well. Right now that is looking unlikely, but I’ll keep tabs on it. Highs will be, again, in the mid 30s.
Monday evening/Tuesday morning: OK, now this is where is gets REALLY interesting. The Hood Canal area is famous for it’s natural hoarding of cold air. If we get enough of it in our little bowl, it takes a lot to scour it out. This will be the case here. After a relative lull in precipitation Sunday night and most of Monday, a warmer, wetter storm blows through Monday evening. For a lot of folks outside of the general Kitsap Peninsula region, it will be a rain event. But it looks like we could store enough cold for snow to fall from Monday evening until Tuesday morning before warm air overtakes the cold air and it turns to rain.
Before that happens, however, we could be talking about several inches of wet, sloppy snow. Too soon to talk accumulations, but some areas, like those immediately along the Canal, could end up with 5” or so. Take a look at this snowfall map:
This map shows 4-5” of snow even to Bainbridge Island! But you’ll notice a dry spot to the southeast! Talk about getting robbed in the snow lottery. We’ll see if the dry bubble holds, but I’m expecting everyone to see at least a little snow during this event.
Tuesday through the end of next week we warm up dramatically with highs approaching 50 degrees with steady rainfall. In fact, snow levels will shoot up to 8,000′…rainy mountains for sure.
Mother Nature’s on the top of her game: one extreme to the other!
Stay tuned to this blog for further information as I am sure details will change a lot over the coming days…
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com
EXTENDED FORECAST
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Scripps Interactive Newspapers Group
December 11th, 2009 at 7:01 pm
Snow! WOOHOOHOO!
December 12th, 2009 at 7:30 am
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December 12th, 2009 at 9:44 am
Praying for snow!! I’m almost in that horrible bubble, but looks like I can still see a couple inches.
December 12th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
Your blog is awesome! I am a geographer and weather junkie. To find someone forcasting for just this area, well, it is just too cool! Congrats.
December 12th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
Naw man, too much warm air coming in… east kitsap won’t see much. Seabeck though, I’d say a few inches.
December 12th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
Thanks, Jenni! I’m so glad you like it!
joemama: Right. I don’t expect much of anything for the eastern half of Kitsap County. My main focus, as was highlighted in this post, is the HC area. That snow map highlighted potentially 5” for B.I., but I think at best they’ll see a trace.
That warm air will be a killer for sure!
~Matt
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