Major Snowstorm/Cold or Back to Normal?: Confusion in the Weather Model World
December 9th, 2009 by Matthew Leach**Look! A new poll on the right hand side bar!**
UPDATED 8:57 PM
Ehhh…not too much to get excited about looking at this evenings model runs. Better than the last set of runs, but still not stellar. I think the general consensus is to keep things pretty dry around here until later Saturday into Sunday which is when we *might* see some snowfall. If we get any precipitation during this time, I am very confident it would be snow, the trouble is…where are we going to get it from? It’s just going to be too darn dry.
After a few rain/snow showers Sunday into Monday it looks like a repeat performance of what we went through in November. Wet and mild. Although it is looking increasingly unlikely, I am going to continue to track the models to see if they revert back to a more dramatic weather scenario for this weekend/next week. Best bet now? Don’t get your hopes up too high…we just might manage a snowless arctic outbreak! That combo is very rare.
Sweet dreams!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com
7 DAY FORECAST
******************************************************************************************
UPDATED: 4:55 PM
Just a brief post right now…
I’ll be updating this blog post at around 9:00 PM or so this evening. Todays models have shown many dramatic solutions for this weekend and next week. For example:
–Absolutely no rain or snow this weekend/early next week.
–Major snowstorm (especially Hood Canal area) Sunday-Monday and maybe overlapping into Tuesday.
–Rain/snow Saturday through Tuesday with periods of decent, wet accumulation.
–Dry all weekend, rainy and breezy Monday and Tuesday.
–Dry until late next week (A much more typical El Nino solution, actually)
And then, to make this even more complicated, the 12z GFS model run showed another artcic blast early next week with highs back down into the 20s for most of Western WA. The 18z GFS, the most recent model run, has completely 180′d: mild and dry.
Not sure what to think right now so I won’t make any stabs in
the dark until this evening’s model solutions come out. My personal
bias? Obviously a major snowstorm, but hey…can’t always get what I
want 
Check back,
~Matt
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December 9th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
SNOWSNOWSNOW!!!! I want snow!!
December 9th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
I DO TOO!!!
December 9th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
SNOWSTORM SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW AND MORE SNOW! i really really want snow!
December 9th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
Weather forcasters have the easiest job. They can be wrong 50% of the time and still have a job!!! It’s either going to snow or not going to snow, and you all can’t even get that right!!!
December 9th, 2009 at 7:36 pm
Hey Suquamish: I agree with the first part of your statement…not that weather predicting is easy (in fact it’s VERY difficult) but that it’s crazy weather folks get paid a decent amount to make wrong predictions!
But guess what affects thousands in the Kitsap area and, most of the time, negatively? The Weather. It’s not as easy as saying “It may or may not snow so…good luck!” My job is to accurately predict what will happen several days ahead of time. People trust me to give them the most accurate information, which requires a lot of time and studying of weather patterns/formulas.
I think if you observed how much work it takes meteorologists to build forecasts, you’d 100% agree weather is not a 50% job
Just a friendly perspective.
~Matt
December 10th, 2009 at 10:34 pm
Well Matthew, no record snow but there is record ice on Hood Canal. Snce I don’t have a TV I don’t know that it has been reported that Hood Canal froze over last night. I did see a helicopter hovering around the Holly area, but don’t know if it was a news chopper.
I’ve only seen ice on the Canal twice before in my life. Once about 20 years ago, it was wafer thin near the shore. The second time was the winter that the Seabeck Marina broke up and there were floating sheets of thin ice here and there on the water and covering the beach.
Today was awesome! It was solid early this morning at slack tide, all 3/4 miles across to the other side. It was about 16 degrees out. When the tide started receding, I could here noise out on the water/ice. It was the anchored buoys being pulled by the ice as it started to move. The ice would move and start pushing them down, but when they were submerged about 3″, their buoyancy would pop them up breaking the ice making the noise, and leaving an open trough behind as the ice slowly moved with the current.
The rafts in the cove didn’t fair so well being much larger with much more drag and embedded in the ice. The ice simply took them, breaking the anchor line of one. The other was drug with anchor and chain attached into deep water. There were no trails behind them as they were frozen in the floe.
When I and a neighbor finally rounded up a motor it was well out. Here are my observations of this once-in-a-lifetime happening:
-The raft was embedded in the moving ice sheet which averaged about 1/2″ thick.
-it wasn’t until we were within 40′ of the raft (the distance it was anchored from shore) that we hit solid ice, about 1/2″ thick. That was the original floe when the current started pulling it away from shore.
-We had to use a little over half throttle of the 10hp motor on a 10′ Livingstone to break through the ice. We reversed our way back out with great difficulty trying to tow the raft. It wouldn’t break loose, then I realized our labors had caused a piece of the main floe, about a 50′ x 35′ section to break off and we were towing it as it ever so slowly gyrated off.
-There were holes in the ice where seals had come up because we saw several seals pop their heads and you could see where the ice had been pushed up.
-Motoring through the thick ice was very noisy. You had to yell to be heard from 6’ away.
-The ice had some fractals in it (designs in ice like when you throw water on a cold widow and it freezes).
-When we came in about 3:30 PM, the main flow was 2000-3000 feet from shore. Even if a breeze does come up, the ice is too thick to allow waves. It will be very interesting what is in store for tomorrow.
I took quite a few pictures, so if you are interested, I’ll E-mail some to you so you can see evidence of “The Day the Canal Froze Over”.
December 12th, 2009 at 9:14 am
I’d love to see your pictures! Thanks.
December 12th, 2009 at 5:58 pm
Tom, PLEASE send me some pictures!!! I’ll host them on the blog
~Matt
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