Forecasting Kitsap

Welcome to December! I know a lot of you are relieved to put November’s crazy weather patterns aside and enjoy a pleasant change of weather conditions for once this fall!

Well…that pleasant mood December is making up this week is sort of like a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

The weather models have been consistent enough that within the next few weeks:

1. I am confident we’ll experience a few decently cold days.

2. I am confident we’ll see some snow.

3. I am confident we’ll get blasted again with rain.

I know, I know. These are pretty big weather events to be confident about, but the way things have trended over the past several days this is what we have in store…and in that order!

First, the cold. Even though we’re only 5 days away from this blast of cold air, a lot of uncertainty remains in the temperature department. I think at this time it’s safe to say we won’t be challenging December 2008′s blast with highs in the low to mid 20s for several days in a row, but if some of the models I have been looking at were to be taken at face value, highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s wouldn’t be unreasonable, but they tend to have a cold bias.

Take a look at this map for Monday at 1 PM:

Taken literally, that would spell highs in the upper 20s, mid 20s near the Hood Canal. Overnight lows are projected to dip as low as the upper teens in spots. Is it realistic to get that cold? Sure! But the wisest thing to do right now is take a conservative approach to the temperature forecast. Not as conservative as the NWS, but conservative enough, and you’ll see what I mean when you look at the 7 day.

As far as duration goes, typically arctic blasts last 3-4 days around here, with December 2008 as a rare exception. But if some certain model runs are to be believed, we could stay pretty cold around here for a while.

2. Snow? Not yet! But almost always, the only way we get cold air scoured out of the Kitsap/Hood Canal region is through a warmer and wet system crashing through, causing an “over-running event” to take place. Basically, the warm, moist air overrides the cold, dry air and what begins as heavy wet snow eventually turns into rain as the warm air wins out. It’s a messy, often unpleasant situation for everyone, even snow lovers.

That is the most likely scenario, but something like December 2008 where we had very cold, moist systems deliver continous snow isn’t exactly a far-fetched thought right now.

3. The fire hose will return. Model run after model run insists we will be blasted again with rain after this cold period, signaling a return to what we grew to love in November! Or not love It looks like a warm rain too which wouldn’t bode well for the mountains. But that is far enough out in the long range that it isn’t worth worrying about at this time.

So there’s your update…I’ll continue to monitor the models and deliver any updates as they come!

Have a great day,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST