Daily Archives: November 2, 2009

Atmosphere Not Responding to Typical El Nino Effects So Far


A map showing how strong the El Nino of 1997-1998 already was in late October 1997

I just came back from visiting Seattle with friends from Norway, so I haven’t completed by “Mountain Forecast” page on my blog yet, but tune in tomorrow and I’ll have it up and running!

My winter forecast will be released within the next couple weeks, but so far I can say that this El Nino will not act like your typical El Nino, with varying weather patterns reminiscent of La Nina years AND El Nino years. This past October was one of the wettest in recent memory with over 5” of precipitation over Western Washington and close to 12” of rain in the foothills near North Bend. Temperatures also averaged 0.5-1 degree below normal.

It isn’t very common for El Nino Octobers to feature the “cold and wet” combonation. Typically we see cold and dry or mild and dry. A couple El Nino years that were cold and wet were 1951 and 1968, some of the coldest and snowiest winters in Seattle history. Is that a sign of things to come for this winter? I wouldn’t be so sure yet, but looking at this past month and what we have in store for the first week or so of this month, we will not be experiencing typical El Nino weather.

Today was pleasant, but chilly with highs in the low 50s and lows  near freezing. Tomorrow will be very similar to today with cold night in  the 30s underway and a chilly afternoon with highs in the low 50s once again.

Wednesday we’ll clear out and warm up quite a bit actually as we have a little bit of offshore flow, helping boost the high temperatures in the low to mid 60s! It’ll feel almost summery after what we just went through! However the mild weather will be short lived as a strong weather system will plow through the area dropping rain and breezy conditions.

We turn that rain to showers Friday through the weekend before another potentially significant rainmaker arrives for Monday.

Right about now, I’m sure a lot of you are wishing this El Nino will kick into gear already! 😉

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com