Releases Final 2009-2010 Winter Outlook

I guess the NOAA is going to release their winter outlook sometime later today or tomorrow, but we all know what they’re going to say: “above normal temperatures with below normal precipitation” in the Pacific Northwest. And you know what? For the past several years they’ve been blowtorching the Northwest, only to get blowtorched themselves year after year.

So the government-based weather organization is going to get a bit of a snub from me because they’ve flubbed way too many times to be taken seriously. And while is not exactly the best source for long range weather (in my opinion, of course) they tend to be a little more accurate. Here’s their latest 2009-2010 weather outlook for temperatures and precipitation: 



Hey snow lovers…can you say “Ouch”?! If this forecast comes true, we would experience the dullest winter since 2002-2003. I guess given what we’ve been slipping and sliding through since 2006, we’re about due. But still…I’m not liking this forecast 🙁

I have to say, though, I’m not exactly agreeing with this forecast, and that isn’t because I’m biased. AccuWeather is east coast based, meaning it spends most of its time forecasting for the east coast, and very little time on the west coast, which is why their forecast accuracy for us isn’t necessarily the best. My winter outlook will come out later this month into November, but I must say, my fall forecast is verifying pretty well so far!

Moving on, within the past 24 hours Bremerton Airport has picked up 0.41” of rain! It was an extremely wet and dangerous morning. I hyrdoplaned into work! Literally…I almost wiped out on the highway…not fun. BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!

More heavy rain is in the forecast later tomorrow through Friday before lighter, normal Washington rain returns for the weekend with sunbreaks.

Have a fantastic day!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at:



46 thoughts on “ Releases Final 2009-2010 Winter Outlook

  1. I have been comparing the Current Operational(el-nino) SST Anomaly Charts for the last 60 days against the 2006-07 el-nino and it looks to my naked eye a duplicate replication.Is their any significance to this Matt?

  2. Bad timing for the Winter Olympics next February. It could be very slushy up in Whistler…and the slush will be man-made. Personally wouldn’t mind less cold and snow compared to last year. But the mountains need snow for our water supply and, if the forecasts are accurate, there may not be much up there in the spring. We are due for a little break from the snowy, cold winter weather we have had the last few years. My electric bill could sure use one.

  3. Matt: Feel better! Yes, I go to that site. My name on it is KUGR WxMan 🙂

    Thomas: VERY interesting find, my friend! I’ve been looking at 2006-2007 as a contender for quite sometime now. The weather conditions this year have been eerily similar to that year: a hot, record-breaking July, seasonable August, warm and dry September, colder October, etc. I would not be surprised to experience another wild card winter this year if trends continue…thanks for sharing!

    Markem: Ugh…tell me about it! I’m a bit nervous about the Olympics. How embarrassing would that be to have man-made snow?! And I do agree with you, we are due for a calmer winter, but the atmosphere has been so charged since 2006 that I sense Mother Nature has lost her sense of normalcy lately 😉

  4. Why in the world do your want them to be wrong? I live in Atlanta which is expected to get alot of snow this year! I HOPE IT WILL COME TRUE!!!!!

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