Long Range Forecast: Bone-chilling Cold in our Near Future?

cold weather

First off, I’d like to address one thing,  and that is dramatization. Certain weather gurus out there (*cough Cliff Mass cough*) accuse the media of hyping weather stories a little too much around here. For example, when it’s predicted to snow about an inch in most areas on a certain night the title of the news cast will read: “ARCTIC BLAST 2009!” People in Minnesota would be shaking their heads. And you know what? That kind of dramatization is most definitely ridiculous. I agree.

But I assure you, I don’t hype weather stories on this blog. If I could play off Bill O’Reilly’s “No Spin Zone” for just a minute, this is the “No Hype Zone”. Hyping weather trends does no one any good. If the titles of my blog posts seem a little dramatic, it’s because it is! I wouldn’t blog about an extreme weather pattern if I wasn’t betting really good odds on it happening.

So with that in mind, let’s address what’s next in our what seems like monthly trend of extreme after extreme around here. Virtually all weather models have come into agreement that the last few days of this month into October will feature some unusually chilly and wet weather. First, take a look at how deep the trough (remember, for those who don’t know, “trough” typically signifies wet, unsettled weather which in the fall almost always means cold as well) looks on the European weather model this afternoon:


Do you see it? Look how those blue lines sag considerably in the northwest on Tuesday. For all those non-weather junkies out there, that means cold and wet weather is coming our way! And it appears that will be the weather trend for at least the last few days of September/first week of October.

The American Weather model, the GFS, is advertising not only some impressive rain and cold next week but also some low temps in the 30s late next week, frost the week after that and record low high temperatures in the 40s. Now, I’m not going to hype that model because those solutions are pretty extreme, but I believe it’s within the realm of possibility. Why? Because just a few days ago we were sitting at 93 degrees…in late September! This proves anything is possible!

Stay tuned, folks. This could be the real bone-chilling taste of fall several of you have been asking for. And when you ask Mother Nature for a certain weather pattern, you better believe she’ll deliver!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com



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