**FALL 2009 FORECAST for the Pacific Northwest**September 12th, 2009 by Matthew Leach
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FALL 2009 FORECAST
By: Matthew Leach
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It’s time for a SUPER long range prediction. I will say ahead of time, these predictions should not be taken as gospel, but my hope is the overall trend will be similar to what I’ve found in my research.
In long range weather forecasting, some feel it is important to use analogs. Analogs are past years weather forecasters try to match up with the current year to see if there’s some type of correlation or pattern occuring. For instance, last year I used the 1949-1950 analog for the fall/winter of 2008-2009. The first half of my prediction was quite accurate, as I called for a cooler but drier than normal September/October combo with a very warm and moist November.
I also mentioned a cold blast in mid December, but that January would be the coldest and snowiest month we would experience in a looong time. Most of that prediction was pretty good, but January was certainly not the coldest or snowiest month.
So as you can see, analogs aren’t perfect, but I believe weather happens in cycles and often repeats itself.
For at least this fall, I have used a mix of analogs, most noteably 1951 and 1997. So here’s the breakdown:
LATE SEPTEMBER 2009: The latter half of this month will feature continued warm and dry conditions, but not as warm as what we are currently experiencing. There looks to be a notable moist cool down the last few days or so of the month which will come as an obvious surprise to a lot of us. The average September high temperature will be above normal with below normal precipitation.
OCTOBER 2009: This month looks drastically different than the last. While the first few days or so may be drier than normal, it looks to turn much wetter and colder than normal as the month progresses. Overall temperatures will average below normal with above normal rainfall. Also look for a few periods mid-late month that feature some highs dipping as low as the 40s in some spots.
NOVEMBER 2009: The variety continues! This month, according to the long range projections, looks slightly drier than normal, but certainly warmer than normal. The mountains likely won’t see any snow this month and if they do, it will be very little. Overall temperatures will average a couple degrees above normal with precipitation a half an inch or an inch below normal. Certainly an ominous sign for the winter to come…
SO…here’s what it looks like: a cooler finish to September, a wet and cold October and a warmer and drier November. My winter forecast will be released in mid November or so.
Have a fantastic weekend!
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7 DAY FORECAST