Daily Archives: September 10, 2009

Monthly Long Range Outlook: A Very Warm September Possible

SEPTEMBER 2009 MONTHLY OUTLOOK

I just have a few thoughts about where I think we’re headed with the weather pattern for the rest of the month. I know, I know: “But how accurate is a forecast 16 days out if forecasts just 3 days out aren’t very accurate!”

Well, the trick to long range forecasting is not excatly specifics, but more so general trends. Not too general, but not too specific either.

Bottom line is this: I have been noticing a pattern in the long range weather models for the past couple of weeks that have remained rather consistent which gives me an idea of what to expect for the rest of the month and personally…I don’t like it.

There are 3 main long range models I look at: The GFS (American model), ECMWF (European model) and the Canadian model. While not all models have been on board with the same information at the same time all the time, there has certainly been a noticeable trend for where they want to gear this month to.

SEPTEMBER 2009 PREDICITION: Based on this information, I am going all out and predicting a very warm and dry finish to the month. This doesn’t mean there’s absolutely no chance of a few showery and coolish days, but overall it is looking unseasonably dry and warm.

In fact, on most of the models I have looked at temperatures are projected to hit the 80 degree mark frequently between now through the end of the month.

There’s not so much a correlation between warm Septembers and winter, but there is definitely a trend between what the monthly weather average of October ends up being and what our winter weather will be like. I will write more about that tomorrow.

For now, I will say this: summer is far from dead if we are to believe what the weather models have been regurgitating. I already gave part of my fall forecast away, but look out for it this weekend!

For now…stay classy,

~Matt
forecastingkitsap@live.com