A main road in the downtown area of Fagatogo, American Samoa is flooded by water on Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2009. (AP / Fili Sagapolutele)

Three tragic natural disasters have happened within the span of 48 hours. A powerful 7.9 earthquake struck western Indonesia today, triggering landslides and trapping thousands under collapsed buildings. 75 have been confirmed dead, but the death toll is expected to be much higher, according to the AP News Release.

An 8.1 magnitude earthquake struck the South Pacific Islands of Samoa and American Samoa yesterday, killing at least 113 people. Villages and resorts were completely washed away, but even more terror barreled through the islands as the powerful earthquake triggered a series of massive tsunamis reaching anywhere from 10 to 15 feet.

These are truly horrific and tragic events and even though I have a passion for severe weather/storms, I would not want to be face to face with a tsunami and I can’t imagine the terror and sorrow many in these disaster-stricken areas are feeling. But after I heard about these natural disasters, I began to wonder: what if an earthquake struck off the coast of Washington? Could that trigger a tsunami as well?

It’s very possible.

According to a Seattle P.I. post on February 8th, 2005, scientists say “If a magnitude-7.3 earthquake rumbles out of the recently discovered Seattle Fault, Harbor Island would tilt toward the bay and the Duwamish River estuary would drain. But within two minutes the water would ricochet off the north shore of the bay and wash back eastward, flooding three square miles of low-lying areas.”

Not only that, but “a tsunami generated by an earthquake in the Seattle Fault could send up to 16 feet of water roaring ashore, swamping two marinas, inundating the Seattle Aquarium, Ivar’s Acres of Clams, Myrtle Edwards Park and the state ferry dock in what used to be tidelands downtown.”

And it wouldn’t take long to move. “Scientists say the tsunami could move from the west side of the bay to the city waterfront in as little as two minutes”.

And while Seattle hasn’t had such an earthquake-related wave strike the area in over 1,000 years, scientists say it will happen again, despite evidence that a magnitude 7.3 earthquake occurs once in every 2,500 years.

While all this speculation is frightening, it is best to be prepared if such an event were to happen, which is what scientists are and have been studying vigorously ever since the December 2005 tsunami that hit Southern Asia. They have been busy at work drawing up maps and projections which would predict the path of major tsunami’s in order to give residents all along the west coast time to evacuate if necessary. In fact, moments after the tsunami struck the the South Pacific, the National Weather Services in California and Oregon issued “Tsunami Advisories”, keeping the public on their toes just in case something were to happen here in the states.

To read the whole Seattle P.I. article, click here.

I wouldn’t get too worked up about something that dramatic happening, but it sure is comforting there are people out there working hard to warn us ahead of time if it does.

Keep all the disaster-affected families in your prayers! We ought to be thankful for the weather we have here…

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

Hard to imagine we made a 54° drop in 3 days, but we did.

Also very impressive in its own right is the fact that the Bremerton Airport recorded a morning low of 39 degrees this morning at 6:15 am with an afternoon high of 71—a 32 degree spread. I will admit, this morning seemed awfully cold compared to the last few. I mean think about it: for the past several months we’ve averaged in the low 50s for low temps which is much above normal. And then today broke the trend, giving us our first overnight low in the 30s of the season.

This is a good indicator of what’s to come as a large pool of unseasonably cold and wet weather will barrel through the area early next week. For now, however, expect continued very pleasant conditions through the weekend with high temps in the low to mid 70s under partly sunny skies. Go out and enjoy it!

But the drama begins on Monday as high temps plunge into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Even cooler air arrives Tuesday as a front moves through the area dropping the temperatures and precipitation. We improve a bit on Wednesday with continued cool weather, but rain and clouds move back in for the latter part of next week.

Looks like fall has arrived, folks!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

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Happy Fall!

Wowza! We did it folks…we SMASHED the old Bremerton record of 80 degrees set in 1970 (that’s a pretty wimpy number, actually. Only 80 degrees?) with a daytime high of 93 degrees today!

If you saw my video forecast yesterday, I predicted a high of 87 and didn’t think Bremerton would scoot past 90 today. I’m actually amazed it got as warm as it did considering where we’re at seasonally: it’s the first day of fall!

Tomorrow looks about 10 degrees cooler, though it will still be about 10-15 degrees above normal (try to wrap your mind around that!) with continued sunny skies. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

Thursday and Friday look much cooler with highs dipping into the upper 60s and low 70s which is quite seasonable for this time of year.

We climb the temperature ladder a bit over the weekend with highs reaching the low to mid 70s but models are converging on the idea of our very first true taste of fall next week with what weather geeks term a “clipper” system which is basically a push of much colder air from our north which could dive temperatures several degrees below normal for quite some time.

Nothing is set in stone, but if you’re anything like me, you’re crossing your fingers so we can get some crisp, fall weather at our doorsteps! Go away, summer! 😉

Have a great evening,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

This temperature map shows low 90s for the Kitsap area on Tuesday!

This ridge of high and dry pressure just doesn’t want to leave! And while it’s here, it will keep on pumping some unseasonably warm air into our region until something knocks this thing into oblivion.

Today was absolute perfection in my opinion: a high of 64 with a low of 42 and sunny skies. Definitley cooler and more fall-like than I had predicted! But don’t let this weather fool you. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of this week will feature temperatures more suited for July than late September.

Tomorrow doesn’t look too bad with highs getting into the mid and upper 70s under sunny skies but here’s the projected numerical output for Tuesday and Wednesday:

• Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009: 90
• Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009: 88

Oohhh yeah…this is looking like a scorcher.

What makes this round of heat different than the past few this month is it won’t last nearly as long. By Thursday and Friday a significant marine push plows through the area dropping temperatures 10-15 degrees. BUT, the upper 70s and low 80s return for next weekend.

Long range models have been fairly consistent with bringing in some sharply colder air by the end of the month into October. Not so much rain, just much cooler fall-like weather.

Until then, enjoy the summer-like weather! I’m not going to say this is the last burst of summer because I’ve said that nearly 5 times this month and each time summer comes back 😉

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST