Old Farmers Almanac 2009-2010 Winter Outlook

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I know many of you have been waiting for this. Something about fall and winter predictions excites everyone, and even though it is late August and it seems too early to be talking about winter, this is typically the time when predictions are made. So let’s cut right to the chase. Here’s a snip-it from the Winter 2009-2010 map. I just included the northwest. You’ll have to buy the almanac to see the rest of the nation as well as the Summer 2010 prediction ;)):

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Hmmmm…”Cool, snowy” huh? And look at how that huge snowflake is sitting right on top of Kitsap! Could we possibly have 4 cold, wet and snowy winters in a row? Later this week I’ll explain why this is certainly possible and why I believe we are entering a colder weather regime that will result in harsher winters to come. But for now, let’s pick out a few highlights from the Almanac itself. Again, I can’t be too specific because the publishers will likely have me by the throat, but I wanted to comment on just a few things I saw in the specific forecast for the PNW:

  • First of all, they mention that overall temperatures and precip will be near average, but snowfall will be above average. This is GREAT news for the 2010 Vancouver Olympics.
  • November and December look cooler than normal with a particularly chilly December. In fact, for December, the almanac is predicting flooding, “very cold temperatures” and, get this, a “snowstorm” midmonth. I’ve noticed they are typically a week or two early with these predictions, so if this is the case, maybe another white Christmas?
  • The second half of winter looks quite mild with below normal precip, though storms and snow are still predictied in early January and mid February.

So in conclusion, a very cool and stormy late fall/early winter followed by a much calmer finish to the winter season. Kind of like what we just went through this past winter, except stormier.

Now, there are three different almanacs you can buy at Barnes and Noble: The Old Farmers 2010 Almanac (the original), The Farmers Almanac 2010 (a new, hip version with a completely different layout) and The Farmers 2010 Almanac. This all may seem confusing if you haven’t skimmed through all three, but I buy all of them every year. I have found that each almanac contains a  few valuable nuggets and when you put their predictions all together, you get a very accurate forecast.

Each almanac is about $5-$6, so it is very affordable and an entertaining read, especially if you’re into astronomy/astrology/astrometeorology.

Have a great day!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Want a personalized forecast?  E-mail me at forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

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201 thoughts on “Old Farmers Almanac 2009-2010 Winter Outlook

  1. Hello Matthew,
    Do you have any predictions for the East Coast, mainly the Philadelphia and Southern, NJ area? Will we see plenty of snow this
    winter and will we see single digit tempatures? Thank you for your time and information.
    Carol

  2. @ Matthew: Great blog and interesting thread! We live between Woodinville and Duvall and had over 4 feet of snow during the last Christmas season with icicles that were over 3 feet long hanging from the gutters!

    @ Colleen: I feel for your husband. Our family had packages that did not make it in time for Christmas. Once we were able to let go of the angst associated with our gifts not arriving and let go of the materialism that Christmas has become, it was one of the most enjoyable Christmases I can remember. We were forced to stop in the midst of chaos and choose what to make of the day. I am so sorry, though, for those that had no choice but to still be out tromping around in it, trying to make everyone’s Christmas demands, uh, I mean dreams come true. Please tell your husband we appreciate him.

  3. Carol: I (and several other weather forecasters) are predicting a very healthy winter for the northeast. If you love cold and snow, then buckle up! It’ll be a wild ride all along the eastern seaboard, but moreso to the north (in your area). Have fun and be safe!

    Wendie: Thank you! It doesn’t surprise me you saw so much snow! Your area is prime for enhanced snowfall.

    And I really appreciate your comment to Colleen. That really puts things in a meaningful perspective. Thank you 🙂

    ~Matt

  4. If I remember correctly, last September was fairly warm too. In fact, we were around 90 degrees in some days. Especially around the south sound. And a part of October was very warm too. Although I do recall a rather cold period in October. Despite the very warm September and October, we had a very cold and very snowy December and even March. As far as I’m concerned, this warm period in September does not have such a significant impact on the upcoming winter. By the way, the storm that we had last week, does that have any correlation with the winter? Something like this happened last year around October and I sensed a cold winter.

  5. Jason (the UPS Man) is on vacation in Fairbanks Alaska this week, but when I talked to him earlier this morning he said to say…

    “Thanks Wendie. Most of my customers were understanding like you. Some even helped shovel me out when the truck got stuck in the drifts a couple of times. Offers of hot coco and cookies were a daily occurance and much appreciated.”

  6. Mark: Last September had its warm moments, but it wasn’t nearly as warm as this September has been. I think I’d compare this September to 2006. That too featured a warm start to fall.

    David: Central Ohio appears to do quite well this winter as long as the El Nino doesn’t strengthen. If it does, expect a milder and drier winter in store. If it stays either weak or moderate, you can expect a pretty healthy season with plenty of snow and cold.

    Steve: Utah will do MUCH better than the Northwest even if this El Nino strengthens. But overall, I wouldn’t count on a better season than last year. Expect a drier, calmer winter but enough snow to make skiers happy!

    Greg: Detroit should experience plenty of cold and snow this winter. You are far enough north and east that this El Nino will likely play a minimal factor in your winter. Enjoy!

  7. how would you compare this upcoming el nino winter to others.what
    el nino winter do you think will be the most similar to this winter.

  8. I read your blog today and I couldn’t help to think how terribly right you are. It’ll probably feel that much colder due to all the WARM weather we’re enjoying right now.

  9. Terry: This El Nino is quite unique. The atmopsheric conditions associated with it are not typical, so it will be hard to predict what this winter will be like. I’m thinking the El Ninos of 1951, 1997 and 2006 will be most similar to this winter which means a good ski season for sure!

    Jennifer: It’s looking VERY cold and snowy for your location. Expect some early frosts/freezes within the next week or so even! The coooold Canadian air up north is building and will spread south…fast.

    Mark: Yes, I think you’re right. The word “cold” will be relative compared to what we’ve experienced this month!

  10. hey matthew ill be moving home back with family in buffalo ny in a week can you tell me what the winter will be like for that area this winter

  11. I thought clipper systems only happened around the northern great plains. Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota. Nevertheless, I hope it does come here and sticks around for the whole winter. I noticed that accuweather.com is also predicting much colder temperatures in the long range forecast.

  12. What would you say that the predicted cold weather for next week has to do with the El Nino? Could it mean that the El Nino is weakening?
    Or maybe it means a very cold period sometime during winter? Because I really hope that’s the case!!

  13. Greg: A very chilly and snowy winter looks to be in store for Upstate New York. Hope you enjoy it!

    Shannon: The midwest will experience a colder than normal winter, but also slightly drier as well. It all depends on how the El Nino develops. Stay tuned!

    Mark: Clippers don’t typically happen here, but they certainly can. And the cold moving in next week has nothing to do with the El Nino, but it certainly is a good sign for this winter. Only time will tell!

    (By the way, just in case you didn’t know, you can comment in the other blog posts as well. You don’t have to comment here when referring to another blog post)

  14. Hi, sice you seem not to mind to much about questions, do you think Bremerton will get much snow this year again? Last year we got 2 feet since I live 422 feet above sea level. sound good for us?

  15. Hey so..I live in Milton freewater Oregon, Which borders super close to washington and fairly close to Idaho….I m kinda a snow person dont mind going out and shoveling snow or driving in it….My question is do u think Oregon will have a nice snowfall this year..My idea of nice is the more the merrier…Thanks for any feedback

    Adam

  16. Hi Matt….New here in the area,very informative blog.Is their any chance of a major wind storm this winter.And is this a common or uncommon event for the Pacific Northwest,as I`m preparing to strap my boat here at Blaine,WA port.

  17. Anna and Adam: This winter, in my opinion, is still very much up in the air. This will all depend on how the El Nino develops. There is a good chance this years El Nino doesn’t act like a typical El Nino, but to expect something as great as last year may be a tall order to ask for. Definitely stay tuned…by the end of this month/early next month I’ll know much more and will publish my winter outlook! Thanks for reading!

    Thomas: Welcome! Hope you like it here 🙂 The Northwest typically sees its strongest windstorms anywhere from mid October to mid December, so if you’re looking for extreme weather, you couldn’t have come at a better time! Windstorms are very common here, usually happening 1-2 times a year, if not more. Stay tuned to this blog so you can stay ahead of the storm! 😉

    Matthew Leach
    Forecasting Kitsap Blog

  18. Hi, I was wondering if there is a place on the web other then here that people go to for weather chat in the PNW. if so could you post a link.
    Thank you 🙂

  19. Hey so I was curious….Its been really cold over up here …Lows of 27 to 32 at night and highs of 38 to 47 in the days….Any updates yet for oregon washington Idaho areas…I m in oregon like i stated before…

  20. Hey, being an east-coaster who comes out to the PNW to ski during Christmas, this forecast from the farmers almanac is great and would make for another awesome trip! However, NOAA and accuweather and various other sources are not being so friendly to the PNW winter with this El Nino. I was wondering what you think about the PNW winter (do you beleive this forecast you have posted here) and whether or not this El Nino is going to ruin the Christmas vacation trip? Even an average winter for the PNW is “epic” compared to the skiing back east.
    Thank you!

  21. Adam, Jim and Pat: No doubt you all have noticed the colder conditions in the Northwest lately, but I won’t be able to say for certain what this winter will be like until I have all my “ingredients” for forecasting so far ahead.

    Read my latest blog post to find out what those ingredients are. Stay tuned, guys! Just a couple more weeks and I’ll release my forecast 🙂 (Oh, and Jim…the “not-so-friendly” sources of weather predictions you have looked at have had a HORRIBLE track record. I wouldn’t put much stock in them 😉 As for El Nino, it is pretty weak now so its effects are very minimal right now).

  22. Hello Matthew. first of all, i want to say i appreciate all the hard work you are putting into the weather forecasting. i have followed this blog for quite a while and thought it was time to say thanks. anyways… as you are well aware of, we have seen much colder temps than normal lately, and even down into the mid 20’s the other day. It seems as thought we went from a “never ending summer” to a much colder than normal fall. I am very much looking forward to your winter outlook to be released soon, i just wanted to check in and see if you have any updates for all of us waiting. I’m a snow lover myself, and love following possible storms come winter time. Thanks again!

  23. Bryant:

    Thanks for the comment! 🙂 And you’re welcome, I’m glad you’ve found this blog useful!

    As for this winter, I am still putting together a variety of factors that will determine how much cold or snow we will get. If you remember my previous post about “ingredients” I need to make a winter forecast, you’ll see all the steps I take to make a precise prediction.

    I can’t give too many specific away quite yet because I don’t want to be held accountable for any claims made before all my information comes in, but I can say your location is at quite an advantage given its proximity to Canada. Ferndale always scores with cold Canadian air masses!

    Check back in a couple of weeks and I’ll have much more information regarding this winter for the whole Northwest 🙂

    ~Matt

  24. I live in Portland and even though our temperatures are ‘normal’ right now for this time of year, the way the storms are coming in from the ocean and the high level clouds make me think we are in for an interesting winter. The temperatures the last few days have been really pleasant! I hope if we do get snow, it is cold enough to not be so heavy or icy.

  25. Yea….Well I m praying the Good lord allows us another rocking winter I m a snow bug too….Cheers all….

  26. Hey again Matthew… i had a question for you and was hoping you give clear some things up. Up here in Whatcom County… it seems that even if the weather is cold enough, there are still many times when it will be just too dry to snow, sometimes it will come down as freezing rain, and sometimes it can snow at 37 degrees while other times it cant. Basically, what has to all fall into place for snow to occur in our area? thanks again. and sorry if the question is confusing =/

  27. Bryant:

    Nope, not confusing at all 😉 Typically Whatcom County “suffers” from the brunt of “arctic outflow” which is a very dry and cold airmass that slips out from Canada. This airmass pretty much dries up the atmosphere to the point of no precipitation by the time anything gets to you. There are two things (at least) you’d like to look for when wanting snow:

    1) Cold air already there (and has been there for at least a day or so) when the precip arrives.

    2) Heavy enough precip to penetrate the excessively dry air below.

    Sometimes the heavy precip will enter a rapidly colder portion of the atmopshere several hundred feet above you, resulting in an odd snowfall at 37 degrees.

    Freezing rain occurs when the opposite happens: rain enters a rapidly warmer portion of the atmosphere, but freezes as it hits a freezing surface.

    Crazy stuff! Good question 🙂

  28. thanks for your reply… excellent information to remember. I never knew why such occurances happened and now i do 🙂 I can’t wait for your outlook… hopefully its soon!

  29. Hey again… i was looking around at other winter outlooks and i gotta say, its pretty disappointing. so far you are about the only one saying the pnw will have a good winter, so i’m counting on you! 🙂 I would love to see everyone else be proved wrong by your studies, and i sure hope it happens!

  30. Bryant:

    You’re welcome. Hope the explanation helped!

    But remember, I’m not forecasting a cold winter, normal winter OR warm winter this year…yet. My winter forecast won’t be released until early-mid November, so until then…I will keep my winter predictions secret! 😉

  31. So nothing about Milton yet ……We had a snow storm in the moutains and so super mild flurries the other day…It was really super mild mid 40s all the time then the wind and rain storm came in and grabbed it…now its much cooler…in my area..

  32. Adam:

    Sorry, I only cover Kitsap County weather news and will mention severe weather in the mountains from time to time when it occurs (which I have done recently).

    Interesting weather observations, though! Thanks for keeping us updated!

  33. Tobi:

    Haha, thanks for your interest! I will release my update for sure next week. I haven’t decided when, though. But for all those who have been anxiously awaiting, I’ll be sure to post the update early on in the week! 😉

    Take care,

    ~Matt

  34. Hi Matt,
    I was wondering since this past few weeks in the northwest have been seeing so much rain . Will we still see rain the remainder of this month and thru feb 2010 ? I sure wish we get some dry days or better yet very cold along with snow. 🙂 Thanks ahead of time

  35. Hi There~
    I am wondering if you can tell me if Salem Oregon will see much snow this year, kind of like last year. I love the snow and i am hoping for a ton. PLease let me know what you think. I have seen some conflicting reports although you never really know until it happens.

    thank you

  36. Gina and Jenny:

    Thanks for reading! The Northwest has been experiencing an unusually strong “Pacific Jet” which has been producing most of our heavy precipitation lately. Expect that to relax a bit through the winter, but I definitely expect periods of snow and cold, especially in mid December and January.

    And Jenny, it’s tough to say how much Salem, OR will get specifically. My best guess is less than last year, but still more than normal. I’d say an average of 5-8”.

    ~Matt

  37. ..Hey So What is your overall report for this years Winter weather..Can We expect snow or will it be a now show….I know that in my area we had snow pretty early in the Mtns…And the humidity has been pretty good and It would seem the funky warm cold trend that has been coming and going has been blown away by the Recent ( 3 Days worth) Of humbling wind storms…..And there was a very short winter weather alert this last week for my area Nothing came of it but there ya go….

  38. Adam:

    It appears a variable winter for much of the area is likely. You should definitely see some snow, but I see it most likely to occur during the first half of winter (Dec-Jan) versus the second half (Feb-Mar), because by that time El Nino will really kick in.

    Also, storms will continue, at least through the New Year.

    ~Matt

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