Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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Old Farmers Almanac 2009-2010 Winter Outlook

August 24th, 2009 by Matthew Leach

ofa

I know many of you have been waiting for this. Something about fall and winter predictions excites everyone, and even though it is late August and it seems too early to be talking about winter, this is typically the time when predictions are made. So let’s cut right to the chase. Here’s a snip-it from the Winter 2009-2010 map. I just included the northwest. You’ll have to buy the almanac to see the rest of the nation as well as the Summer 2010 prediction ;)):

ofa-map

Hmmmm…”Cool, snowy” huh? And look at how that huge snowflake is sitting right on top of Kitsap! Could we possibly have 4 cold, wet and snowy winters in a row? Later this week I’ll explain why this is certainly possible and why I believe we are entering a colder weather regime that will result in harsher winters to come. But for now, let’s pick out a few highlights from the Almanac itself. Again, I can’t be too specific because the publishers will likely have me by the throat, but I wanted to comment on just a few things I saw in the specific forecast for the PNW:

  • First of all, they mention that overall temperatures and precip will be near average, but snowfall will be above average. This is GREAT news for the 2010 Vancouver Olympics.
  • November and December look cooler than normal with a particularly chilly December. In fact, for December, the almanac is predicting flooding, “very cold temperatures” and, get this, a “snowstorm” midmonth. I’ve noticed they are typically a week or two early with these predictions, so if this is the case, maybe another white Christmas?
  • The second half of winter looks quite mild with below normal precip, though storms and snow are still predictied in early January and mid February.

So in conclusion, a very cool and stormy late fall/early winter followed by a much calmer finish to the winter season. Kind of like what we just went through this past winter, except stormier.

Now, there are three different almanacs you can buy at Barnes and Noble: The Old Farmers 2010 Almanac (the original), The Farmers Almanac 2010 (a new, hip version with a completely different layout) and The Farmers 2010 Almanac. This all may seem confusing if you haven’t skimmed through all three, but I buy all of them every year. I have found that each almanac contains a  few valuable nuggets and when you put their predictions all together, you get a very accurate forecast.

Each almanac is about $5-$6, so it is very affordable and an entertaining read, especially if you’re into astronomy/astrology/astrometeorology.

Have a great day!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Want a personalized forecast?  E-mail me at forecastingkitsap@live.com

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201 Responses to “Old Farmers Almanac 2009-2010 Winter Outlook”

  1. Jason Says:

    Do any of the Farmer’s Almanacs take into account the fact that we are supposed to have a El Nino winter? The forecasts that I have read for this winter, taking El Nino into account, show above average temperatures and below average rainfall. This completely negates the forecast by the Almanac.

  2. Matthew Leach Says:

    Remember, Jason, El Nino is not solely one weather pattern. Remember 2006-2007? That year featured wicked arctic cold in November and January with healthy snow.

    If you were to read the Old Farmers Almanac, they clearly state an El Nino is in progress, so I would think they are aware.

    Exactly what (and how many) reliable forecasts have you read that pronounced a warmer and drier winter for us? I’ve only heard of two, one of which is from the NOAA which calls for a warm winter every year. All 3 Almanacs listed above are calling for a cooler, snowier and slightly wetter than normal winter this winter.

    As to why this is the case despite the El Nino will be addressed further in a post later this week. El Nino doesn’t rule ALL the weather patterns around here.

    Stay tuned! And great question.

    ~Matt

  3. Brian Says:

    2006/2007 was a Nino year, and as you mentioned, a pretty good winter. I think what people may not be aware of is the PDO, and we are in a cold phase PDO now.

    Also, some pros, like Joe Bastardi, think that the Nino will be fading by the time winter gets here.

    And yes, the CPC ALWAYS predicts warmer then normal winters. Sometimes they are right. And these are overall predictions. You could have a winter that is overall warmer and drier than normal, but also have two big snowy periods during the winter. Just like in baseball, you may get your butts kicked in the game but still win a few innings. You could lose 15-6, but may have “won” two innings by 3-0 scores.

  4. eric Says:

    What do those predictions mean for the Bothell area/ north king south snohomish. Snow or no snow?

    Also I looked at one before in a store, but it did not give me the same data?

  5. Matthew Leach Says:

    Eric: The almanac is not specific to city, just region. For Western Washington, Western Oregon and Northern California. So basically the 2010 Almanac forecast applies to everyone in the Pacific Northwest.

    Brian: BEAUTIFUL comparison! BTW, I’ll be doing a PDO post in a few days. I agree 100%: the PDO will drive this winter, not the El Nino.

  6. eric Says:

    Ah I understand, but when I saw the almanac in the store it never mentioned snow or anything like that at all. Just rain so perhaps I read the wrong one?

  7. Jim Says:

    When talking about decent El Nino winters, you can’t forget about 1951, 1968, or 1972. In fact the winter of 1968-69 was the snowiest on record for Sea-Tac with a whopping 67.5 inches of snow. December 1972 featured 9 consecutive days with high temps of freezing or below at Sea-Tac. Finally the winter of 1951-52 had persistently cold weather in December and Janaury with several snowfalls. El Nino is not a death sentence for winter around here. In the 3 years mentioned above all had negative PDO which accompanied the El Ninos.

  8. Matthew Leach Says:

    JIM! As in Jim Hinkle? SnowWiz? Maybe you have no idea what I’m talking about, but I think it’s you ;) Great comment!

    Eric: I think you did indeed read the wrong one :)

  9. Gene Hart Says:

    Matthew,

    You wrote, “The almanac is not specific to city, just region. For Western Washington, Western Oregon and Northern California. So basically the 2010 Almanac forecast applies to everyone in the Pacific Northwest.”

    Which authority are you using that excludes Idaho, Washington east of the Cascades and Oregon east of the Cascades from the Pacific Northwest?

    How long and where have you resided in the Pacific Northwest?

  10. eric Says:

    Where do I get the right one, what is it called? I saw the cover and the one I looked at said the old farmers almanac..

  11. Jim Says:

    Yes I am the great and mighty SnowWiz!

  12. Matthew Leach Says:

    Gene,

    Maybe I wasn’t clear. The PNW forecast in the Almanac covers the Washington, Oregon and northern California coasts. Eastern Idaho and Oregon are considered the “Intermountain Region” in the Almanac.

    And what do you mean by “which authority am I using?” A little harsh and jumping to conclusions, no?

    Jim: I’m honored you’ve visited my blog! Feel free to chime in any time! I respect your forecasts.

  13. Gene Hart Says:

    Matthew,

    Thank you for your clarification.

    You wrote, “And what do you mean by “which authority am I using?”

    Well, your clarification answered my first question. I now see the authority you are using is “The PNW forecast in the Almanac covers the Washington, Oregon and northern California…” coastal regions.

    For this discussion, writing that the authority you are using is one or more of your geography courses, one or more of your experiences, et cetera would also answer my first question.

    Now, I’m wondering. Given, “Eastern Idaho and Oregon are considered the “Intermountain Region” in the Almanac.” What does the Almanac consider Eastern Washington and Western Idaho to be?

    I don’t see your answer to my second question, “How long and where have you resided in the Pacific Northwest?”

    You wrote, “A little harsh and jumping to conclusions, no?”

    Hmmm. Please, show me my word or words in either or both of my questions that denote or connote “A little harsh and jumping to conclusions, no?” In other words, what triggered your question?

    Sincerely,
    Gene

  14. Jim Says:

    One comment I would like to make is the weather patterns being shown by the computer models for the beginning of September are nothing like you would expect with an El Nino. The pattern being shown would bring snow if it were winter. Looks like an unseasonably cool period coming. If September as a whole is cold it could mean a very cold December. Interestingly, both 1884 and 1972 had hot summers followed by very cold Septembers and both were very cold Decembers. In fact 1884 was the coldest December on record for this region back to at least 1850. And oh yeah….they were both El Nino years!

  15. Matthew Leach Says:

    Gene: I meant Eastern Washington, Eastern Oregon and all of Idaho. Even Northern Utah if I’m not mistaken. If you take a look at one of the almanacs, it’ll give you a better visual.

    To answer your second question, I have lived in the Kitsap area for 18 years. Personally, I never want to leave! I love it here :)

    Hopefully we’re all on the same page now :)

    ~Matt

  16. Matthew Leach Says:

    Jim: I saw that! Definitely what I like to see. I love how the GFS and EURO are now on board as well. It’s always a good thing when we see that!

  17. terry phillips Says:

    how will the winter for st.louis look

  18. Matthew Leach Says:

    Terry,

    It’s looking like quite a cold and wet season. Lots of snow and ice storms!

  19. Matt C. Says:

    i live in duvall washington at 600 ive lived her for 8 years now and last year was the snowiest winter i ever saw and i loved it so much i hope we have another really cold and snowy winter like last year or more snow :D:D:D:D

  20. Matthew Leach Says:

    Matt,

    Duvall is a great spot for snow! I think you’ll do well ;)

  21. terry phillips Says:

    which months do you think will bring the most snow

  22. Matt C. Says:

    im 4 miles south west of duvall at 600 feet but im glad to get the snow last december we got 38 inches by the end of december i hope we get more at the same time i love snow :D

  23. Matt C. Says:

    that makes me happy

    What time of the months are we gonna get the most snow???

  24. Colleen Smidt Says:

    Matthew,

    Sure, everyone likes a White Christmas, until my husband the UPS Man can’t get their Christmas packages to them on time because the snow slowed them down and most of the drivers maxed out at the 60 hours a week of driving allowed by the DOT. Last year was ugly with a capital U. And now with the US Postal Service attempting to buyout 40% of their workforce, it is only going to get uglier.

    Nothing personal, but I hope that both you and the Farmer’s Almanac are wrong when it comes to snow in December. The rest of the year…..let it snow.

    Christmas consumers buy early and ship even earlier this year.

  25. Matt C. Says:

    i hope theres tons of snow in december well i would like tons of snow for the entire winter

  26. Matthew Leach Says:

    Matt–It looks like November/December look the coldest with the best chance for snow. The second half of winter looks to feature less snow…kinda like last winter!

    Colleen: I hope this year isn’t too hard for the delivery guys. I’d be more than happy to have the Almanac bust their forecast for at least the month of December so things can run smoothly. It is August after all, so there’s plenty of time for things to change! :)

  27. terry phillips Says:

    what months will we get the best chance snow and ice in st.louis

  28. Matt C. Says:

    ok thanks

  29. Matt C. Says:

    what about the el nino??? usually it will make things warmer i would like it to snow but why do u think its gonna snow???

  30. Craig Says:

    Hey! Can you tellme what it says preferablyfor Nebraska?

    THANKS.

  31. mark Says:

    Hi, I was wondering what you think about Tacoma down here. I live in Parkland and last year was great. Do you think we’ll get good snow amounts here as well?

  32. Matthew Leach Says:

    Terry: It looks like the latter half of winter will be better for you, more specifically, from late January through March. It will be a good season for you!

    Matt: Good question. The El Nino is still out there and will continue through the winter, but if you read my post from yesterday, the North Pacific Ocean has been consistently cold and doesn’t look to warm up anytime soon and this will likely be the cause of a colder than normal winter. The El Nino looks to have only a minimal effect, kind of like in 2006.

    Craig: The forecast for you is very similar to Terry’s. A warmer (but still cold) 1st half of winter with increasing snow and ice by mid-late January through March. It’ll be a cold one!

    Mark: If everything plays out the way it is forecasted, Parkland will do just fine. Of course, it always depends on the storm track, but as of now, you should enjoy this winter.

    Thanks for your comments!

    ~Matt

  33. Matt C. Says:

    and for me in duvall i should get lots of snow too like last winter right

  34. mark Says:

    I know this is a bit out of topic, but concerning the extreme heat waves we’ve had this summer, how would you explain that? Does it affect the upcoming winter in any way?

  35. Matthew Leach Says:

    Matt: Probably less than last winter, but still a reasonably healthy amount. Enough to make you happy! It’s too soon, however, to start talking about specifics. In October or November I should have a better idea.

    Mark: Well, there is SOME correlation, but most of it is folklore. I have noticed that hot summers (especially hot Julys) lead to colder, stormier winters. But weather doesn’t always work on that schedule. If it did, long range forecasting would be a cinch! :) Great question.

  36. mark Says:

    I was looking at some other websites about the winter outlooks and I encountered one where it said that a weak or moderate el nino means warm and dry in PNW. However, a strong el nino would bring above average snowfall to PNW. I always thought that the stronger the el nino, the warmer and drier it will be in our region. Would you explain to me how this works?

  37. terry phillips Says:

    how do you think the el nino will affect our winter? I have heard forecast that the el nino will not even last through the whole winter.It will just last for one half of the winter.That will make the second half of the winter colder.If that does happen what will you expect for our winter?

  38. Matt C. Says:

    so not 44 inches like last year i didnt ecpect that much that was for the whole winter how many inches total would u say around

  39. terry phillips Says:

    will the el nino last?

  40. Matthew Leach Says:

    Mark: You’re right, typically the stronger the El Nino the warmer it is, but don’t always associate El Nino with being dry. We are very capable of having very wet El Nino’s too. Warmer weather is something we typically see more of in El Nino years, however.

    Terry: I do think the El Nino will last, but I don’t think the effects will be felt until next year as we are still in a weak state. That being said, the El Nino shouldn’t have much of an effect on your winter, so expect a pretty normal year, if not a tad snowier and colder than normal. It will have more of an effect on along the West Coast.

    Matt: It’s far too early to start making predictions of snowfall accumulations! ;) Check back later this fall and I might have some answers for you :)

    ~Matt

  41. mark Says:

    Is there ANY chance this year’s winter will be snowier than last winter?

  42. Matt C. Says:

    ok

  43. terry phillips Says:

    Does or cool summer has to do with anything that’s going to happing this winter?Last winter we had the coldest december this decade but not alot of snow.I want tons of snow this year.will this winter be as cold,and will we have more snow than last year?

  44. Craig Says:

    Can you please post the OFA forecast map of the entire United States?

    Thanks

  45. Cathy Says:

    I am looking for weather patterns/conditions for Northern California. Hoping we’re in for a much needed wet winter….what do you say?

  46. Matthew Leach Says:

    Cathy–It’s looking like a cooler and wetter than normal winter for Northern California, though it appears SoCal won’t get it’s much needed rain this winter. You should fare pretty well throughout the season down there. Fall will likely be a bit drier than normal, but come November-December, you should notice it getting cooler and wetter. I sure hope it happens! California needs the rain!

    Craig–I shouldn’t post the whole map until the publishers at the OFA posts it on their website. I don’t want the publishers to get angry with me releasing maps on my site that haven’t even been released on theirs.

  47. Don Says:

    what kind of winter will we have for nashville tenn and for my friend that lives in denver co

  48. Cathy Says:

    Thank you Matthew…good to know.

  49. Matthew Leach Says:

    Don: In Nashville, it’s looking quite chilly but precip should end up right around average. Expect normal snow amounts as well. Overall, a pretty normal winter for your area. In Denver it’s looking milder but snowier than normal. Expect a few snowstorms in that area around the January-February timeframe.

  50. Don Says:

    thanks matthew do you by chance that nashville will see snows over 5 inches in the winter and in denver as well and what about heavy snows or blizzards

  51. Don Says:

    also what about for detroit michigan as well for the winter

  52. Don Says:

    matt whats instore for milwaukee wi this winter

  53. Carol T Allen Says:

    Hello Matthew,
    Do you have any predictions for the East Coast, mainly the Philadelphia and Southern, NJ area? Will we see plenty of snow this
    winter and will we see single digit tempatures? Thank you for your time and information.
    Carol

  54. Wendie Says:

    @ Matthew: Great blog and interesting thread! We live between Woodinville and Duvall and had over 4 feet of snow during the last Christmas season with icicles that were over 3 feet long hanging from the gutters!

    @ Colleen: I feel for your husband. Our family had packages that did not make it in time for Christmas. Once we were able to let go of the angst associated with our gifts not arriving and let go of the materialism that Christmas has become, it was one of the most enjoyable Christmases I can remember. We were forced to stop in the midst of chaos and choose what to make of the day. I am so sorry, though, for those that had no choice but to still be out tromping around in it, trying to make everyone’s Christmas demands, uh, I mean dreams come true. Please tell your husband we appreciate him.

  55. Matthew Leach Says:

    Carol: I (and several other weather forecasters) are predicting a very healthy winter for the northeast. If you love cold and snow, then buckle up! It’ll be a wild ride all along the eastern seaboard, but moreso to the north (in your area). Have fun and be safe!

    Wendie: Thank you! It doesn’t surprise me you saw so much snow! Your area is prime for enhanced snowfall.

    And I really appreciate your comment to Colleen. That really puts things in a meaningful perspective. Thank you :)

    ~Matt

  56. MARK Says:

    If I remember correctly, last September was fairly warm too. In fact, we were around 90 degrees in some days. Especially around the south sound. And a part of October was very warm too. Although I do recall a rather cold period in October. Despite the very warm September and October, we had a very cold and very snowy December and even March. As far as I’m concerned, this warm period in September does not have such a significant impact on the upcoming winter. By the way, the storm that we had last week, does that have any correlation with the winter? Something like this happened last year around October and I sensed a cold winter.

  57. David Says:

    hey matthew what will the winter be like in central ohio will we have alot of snow this year

  58. Steve Says:

    Any predictions for northern Utah. A snowy ski season would be nice.

  59. Greg Says:

    hey what will the winter be like for detroit ty

  60. Colleen Smidt Says:

    Jason (the UPS Man) is on vacation in Fairbanks Alaska this week, but when I talked to him earlier this morning he said to say…

    “Thanks Wendie. Most of my customers were understanding like you. Some even helped shovel me out when the truck got stuck in the drifts a couple of times. Offers of hot coco and cookies were a daily occurance and much appreciated.”

  61. Matthew Leach Says:

    Mark: Last September had its warm moments, but it wasn’t nearly as warm as this September has been. I think I’d compare this September to 2006. That too featured a warm start to fall.

    David: Central Ohio appears to do quite well this winter as long as the El Nino doesn’t strengthen. If it does, expect a milder and drier winter in store. If it stays either weak or moderate, you can expect a pretty healthy season with plenty of snow and cold.

    Steve: Utah will do MUCH better than the Northwest even if this El Nino strengthens. But overall, I wouldn’t count on a better season than last year. Expect a drier, calmer winter but enough snow to make skiers happy!

    Greg: Detroit should experience plenty of cold and snow this winter. You are far enough north and east that this El Nino will likely play a minimal factor in your winter. Enjoy!

  62. terry phillips Says:

    how would you compare this upcoming el nino winter to others.what
    el nino winter do you think will be the most similar to this winter.

  63. Jennifer Says:

    What does winter look like for mid-michigan this winter??

  64. mark Says:

    I read your blog today and I couldn’t help to think how terribly right you are. It’ll probably feel that much colder due to all the WARM weather we’re enjoying right now.

  65. Matthew Leach Says:

    Terry: This El Nino is quite unique. The atmopsheric conditions associated with it are not typical, so it will be hard to predict what this winter will be like. I’m thinking the El Ninos of 1951, 1997 and 2006 will be most similar to this winter which means a good ski season for sure!

    Jennifer: It’s looking VERY cold and snowy for your location. Expect some early frosts/freezes within the next week or so even! The coooold Canadian air up north is building and will spread south…fast.

    Mark: Yes, I think you’re right. The word “cold” will be relative compared to what we’ve experienced this month!

  66. Greg Says:

    hey matthew ill be moving home back with family in buffalo ny in a week can you tell me what the winter will be like for that area this winter

  67. Shannon Says:

    hey matthew will we see alot of snow this winter in madison wi and the twin cities

  68. mark Says:

    I thought clipper systems only happened around the northern great plains. Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota. Nevertheless, I hope it does come here and sticks around for the whole winter. I noticed that accuweather.com is also predicting much colder temperatures in the long range forecast.

  69. mark Says:

    What would you say that the predicted cold weather for next week has to do with the El Nino? Could it mean that the El Nino is weakening?
    Or maybe it means a very cold period sometime during winter? Because I really hope that’s the case!!

  70. Matthew Leach Says:

    Greg: A very chilly and snowy winter looks to be in store for Upstate New York. Hope you enjoy it!

    Shannon: The midwest will experience a colder than normal winter, but also slightly drier as well. It all depends on how the El Nino develops. Stay tuned!

    Mark: Clippers don’t typically happen here, but they certainly can. And the cold moving in next week has nothing to do with the El Nino, but it certainly is a good sign for this winter. Only time will tell!

    (By the way, just in case you didn’t know, you can comment in the other blog posts as well. You don’t have to comment here when referring to another blog post)

  71. mark Says:

    thanks

  72. Anna Says:

    Hi, sice you seem not to mind to much about questions, do you think Bremerton will get much snow this year again? Last year we got 2 feet since I live 422 feet above sea level. sound good for us?

  73. Adam Says:

    Hey so..I live in Milton freewater Oregon, Which borders super close to washington and fairly close to Idaho….I m kinda a snow person dont mind going out and shoveling snow or driving in it….My question is do u think Oregon will have a nice snowfall this year..My idea of nice is the more the merrier…Thanks for any feedback

    Adam

  74. Thomas wilson Says:

    Hi Matt….New here in the area,very informative blog.Is their any chance of a major wind storm this winter.And is this a common or uncommon event for the Pacific Northwest,as I`m preparing to strap my boat here at Blaine,WA port.

  75. Matthew Leach Says:

    Anna and Adam: This winter, in my opinion, is still very much up in the air. This will all depend on how the El Nino develops. There is a good chance this years El Nino doesn’t act like a typical El Nino, but to expect something as great as last year may be a tall order to ask for. Definitely stay tuned…by the end of this month/early next month I’ll know much more and will publish my winter outlook! Thanks for reading!

    Thomas: Welcome! Hope you like it here :) The Northwest typically sees its strongest windstorms anywhere from mid October to mid December, so if you’re looking for extreme weather, you couldn’t have come at a better time! Windstorms are very common here, usually happening 1-2 times a year, if not more. Stay tuned to this blog so you can stay ahead of the storm! ;)

    Matthew Leach
    Forecasting Kitsap Blog

  76. terry phillips Says:

    i still believe the el nino is going to die.

  77. Anna Says:

    Hi, I was wondering if there is a place on the web other then here that people go to for weather chat in the PNW. if so could you post a link.
    Thank you :-)

  78. Matthew Leach Says:

    Hi, Anna.

    I go to http://www.westernusawx.com . It’s a weather forum where people from the Pacific Northwest post their thoughts about weather and earth science subjects. Have fun!

  79. Adam Says:

    Hey so I was curious….Its been really cold over up here …Lows of 27 to 32 at night and highs of 38 to 47 in the days….Any updates yet for oregon washington Idaho areas…I m in oregon like i stated before…

  80. pat Says:

    i want to know the outlook of snow this year in the corvallis albany salem area. Thank you

  81. Jim Says:

    Hey, being an east-coaster who comes out to the PNW to ski during Christmas, this forecast from the farmers almanac is great and would make for another awesome trip! However, NOAA and accuweather and various other sources are not being so friendly to the PNW winter with this El Nino. I was wondering what you think about the PNW winter (do you beleive this forecast you have posted here) and whether or not this El Nino is going to ruin the Christmas vacation trip? Even an average winter for the PNW is “epic” compared to the skiing back east.
    Thank you!

  82. Matthew Leach Says:

    Adam, Jim and Pat: No doubt you all have noticed the colder conditions in the Northwest lately, but I won’t be able to say for certain what this winter will be like until I have all my “ingredients” for forecasting so far ahead.

    Read my latest blog post to find out what those ingredients are. Stay tuned, guys! Just a couple more weeks and I’ll release my forecast :) (Oh, and Jim…the “not-so-friendly” sources of weather predictions you have looked at have had a HORRIBLE track record. I wouldn’t put much stock in them ;) As for El Nino, it is pretty weak now so its effects are very minimal right now).

  83. Bryant Says:

    Hello Matthew. first of all, i want to say i appreciate all the hard work you are putting into the weather forecasting. i have followed this blog for quite a while and thought it was time to say thanks. anyways… as you are well aware of, we have seen much colder temps than normal lately, and even down into the mid 20’s the other day. It seems as thought we went from a “never ending summer” to a much colder than normal fall. I am very much looking forward to your winter outlook to be released soon, i just wanted to check in and see if you have any updates for all of us waiting. I’m a snow lover myself, and love following possible storms come winter time. Thanks again!

  84. Bryant Says:

    I forgot to add that I’m up in Ferndale, Wa incase you have any opinions for my area :)

  85. Matthew Leach Says:

    Bryant:

    Thanks for the comment! :) And you’re welcome, I’m glad you’ve found this blog useful!

    As for this winter, I am still putting together a variety of factors that will determine how much cold or snow we will get. If you remember my previous post about “ingredients” I need to make a winter forecast, you’ll see all the steps I take to make a precise prediction.

    I can’t give too many specific away quite yet because I don’t want to be held accountable for any claims made before all my information comes in, but I can say your location is at quite an advantage given its proximity to Canada. Ferndale always scores with cold Canadian air masses!

    Check back in a couple of weeks and I’ll have much more information regarding this winter for the whole Northwest :)

    ~Matt

  86. Nicole Says:

    I live in Portland and even though our temperatures are ‘normal’ right now for this time of year, the way the storms are coming in from the ocean and the high level clouds make me think we are in for an interesting winter. The temperatures the last few days have been really pleasant! I hope if we do get snow, it is cold enough to not be so heavy or icy.

  87. Adam Says:

    Yea….Well I m praying the Good lord allows us another rocking winter I m a snow bug too….Cheers all….

  88. Bryant Says:

    Hey again Matthew… i had a question for you and was hoping you give clear some things up. Up here in Whatcom County… it seems that even if the weather is cold enough, there are still many times when it will be just too dry to snow, sometimes it will come down as freezing rain, and sometimes it can snow at 37 degrees while other times it cant. Basically, what has to all fall into place for snow to occur in our area? thanks again. and sorry if the question is confusing =/

  89. Matthew Leach Says:

    Bryant:

    Nope, not confusing at all ;) Typically Whatcom County “suffers” from the brunt of “arctic outflow” which is a very dry and cold airmass that slips out from Canada. This airmass pretty much dries up the atmosphere to the point of no precipitation by the time anything gets to you. There are two things (at least) you’d like to look for when wanting snow:

    1) Cold air already there (and has been there for at least a day or so) when the precip arrives.

    2) Heavy enough precip to penetrate the excessively dry air below.

    Sometimes the heavy precip will enter a rapidly colder portion of the atmopshere several hundred feet above you, resulting in an odd snowfall at 37 degrees.

    Freezing rain occurs when the opposite happens: rain enters a rapidly warmer portion of the atmosphere, but freezes as it hits a freezing surface.

    Crazy stuff! Good question :)

  90. Bryant Says:

    thanks for your reply… excellent information to remember. I never knew why such occurances happened and now i do :) I can’t wait for your outlook… hopefully its soon!

  91. Bryant Says:

    Hey again… i was looking around at other winter outlooks and i gotta say, its pretty disappointing. so far you are about the only one saying the pnw will have a good winter, so i’m counting on you! :) I would love to see everyone else be proved wrong by your studies, and i sure hope it happens!

  92. Matthew Leach Says:

    Bryant:

    You’re welcome. Hope the explanation helped!

    But remember, I’m not forecasting a cold winter, normal winter OR warm winter this year…yet. My winter forecast won’t be released until early-mid November, so until then…I will keep my winter predictions secret! ;)

  93. Adam Says:

    So nothing about Milton yet ……We had a snow storm in the moutains and so super mild flurries the other day…It was really super mild mid 40s all the time then the wind and rain storm came in and grabbed it…now its much cooler…in my area..

  94. Matthew Leach Says:

    Adam:

    Sorry, I only cover Kitsap County weather news and will mention severe weather in the mountains from time to time when it occurs (which I have done recently).

    Interesting weather observations, though! Thanks for keeping us updated!

  95. Tobi Says:

    What’s the skinny….I have been obsessively checking fir your much awaited update.

  96. Matthew Leach Says:

    Tobi:

    Haha, thanks for your interest! I will release my update for sure next week. I haven’t decided when, though. But for all those who have been anxiously awaiting, I’ll be sure to post the update early on in the week! ;)

    Take care,

    ~Matt

  97. Gina Says:

    Hi Matt,
    I was wondering since this past few weeks in the northwest have been seeing so much rain . Will we still see rain the remainder of this month and thru feb 2010 ? I sure wish we get some dry days or better yet very cold along with snow. :) Thanks ahead of time

  98. Jenny Says:

    Hi There~
    I am wondering if you can tell me if Salem Oregon will see much snow this year, kind of like last year. I love the snow and i am hoping for a ton. PLease let me know what you think. I have seen some conflicting reports although you never really know until it happens.

    thank you

  99. Matthew Leach Says:

    Gina and Jenny:

    Thanks for reading! The Northwest has been experiencing an unusually strong “Pacific Jet” which has been producing most of our heavy precipitation lately. Expect that to relax a bit through the winter, but I definitely expect periods of snow and cold, especially in mid December and January.

    And Jenny, it’s tough to say how much Salem, OR will get specifically. My best guess is less than last year, but still more than normal. I’d say an average of 5-8”.

    ~Matt

  100. Adam Says:

    ..Hey So What is your overall report for this years Winter weather..Can We expect snow or will it be a now show….I know that in my area we had snow pretty early in the Mtns…And the humidity has been pretty good and It would seem the funky warm cold trend that has been coming and going has been blown away by the Recent ( 3 Days worth) Of humbling wind storms…..And there was a very short winter weather alert this last week for my area Nothing came of it but there ya go….

  101. Matthew Leach Says:

    Adam:

    It appears a variable winter for much of the area is likely. You should definitely see some snow, but I see it most likely to occur during the first half of winter (Dec-Jan) versus the second half (Feb-Mar), because by that time El Nino will really kick in.

    Also, storms will continue, at least through the New Year.

    ~Matt

  102. Elise Says:

    I live in Tacoma WA, does this mean snow like there was last year? because that would be fabulous!

  103. Nicole Says:

    Is there a good snow forecast for the west seattle/shoreline area? I remember last winter there was a lot of snow and I would love it if we had the same thing this year!

  104. Troy Says:

    Matt.. It has been crazy cold and snow in Omaha, NE.. Is this trend to continue for the rest of winter.. Anchorage, AK has been 20 degrees warmer. Just hoping you might have better news.

    Thanks

  105. Matthew Leach Says:

    Hi, Troy. Yes, recent model trends have been definitely advertising a nationwide “blowtorch” of sorts for the foreseeable future. At least you’ve been able to enjoy some crazy cold and snow, though! Us in the PNW are very jealous!

    I’m betting cold and snow will return in late Feb/March for your area :)

    Take care,

    ~Matt

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