Checking My Long Range Forecast Accuracy, Post IIIAugust 19th, 2009 by Matthew Leach
Hope all of you back home are enjoying the warm weather! This feels like nothing compared to what we melted through last month, right? Here in Provo, UT, highs have been in the 90s but the heat is so dry and the buildings are so cold because of the AC that it really doesn’t feel that bad at all.
Now that I have an extra minute, I thought I should talk about the accuracy concerning the last long range prediction I made back on August 3rd which highlighted the possiblility of returning to a cooler and wetter weather regime by mid August. Sure enough, that ended up happening, but let’s see if the details were accurate. Here’s the long range forecast map I made on August 3rd:
Let’s break it down (numbers from data recorded at the Bremerton National Airport):
Tuesday, August 11th, 2009: Overcast, Rain 69/57. My Forecast: Overcast, Rain 67 degrees. I’d say this forecast held together surprisingly well considering before the 11th we hadn’t had measurable precip for a at least a month. I’m impressed the models held together and offered up rain as forecasted! I’ll give this one an A, even if I was a couple degrees off the high temperature.
Wednesday, August 12th, 2009: Mostly Cloudy, 73/57. My Forecast: Partly Sunny, 75 degrees. The sun didn’t peak out as much as predicted, though I definitley remember more sun this day than the day previous. I suppose the models hit on the head that we would have a better day Wednesday compared to Tuesday, but it just wasn’t precise. Still, I’ll give this forecast an A-.
Thursday, August 13th, 2009: Cloudy, Rain 62/53. My Forecast: Cloudy, Rain 68 degrees. The cloud/precip forecast was spot on, but the temperatures were several degrees cooler than predicted. I’ll say a B+ for this one since cloud/precip forecasts are typically the most valuable part of a forecast.
Friday, August 4th, 2009: Mostly Cloudy, Rain, 64/48. My Forecast: Mostly Cloudy, 65 degrees. This forecast could have been spot on if only I included some rain. I’ll have to dock some points! Overall, though, the forecast was pretty darn accurate. I’ll give myself a B+
Saturday, August 15th, 2009: Partly Sunny, 64/48. My Forecast: Partly Sunny, 75. This was the day I left for Provo. Kind of odd the temperature was the exact same as the day before, but it happens. The cloud type was accurate, but the temperatures were 11 degrees off! So…I’ll say C+/B-, depending on what you felt was the most important in the forecast.
Overall, I’d say this long range prediction was a B+/A- job. The models definitley handled themselves well. Have I converted any non-believers of long range forecasting?
I have to take off now. Have a fantastic day! Boy do I have some cool weather news to share later this week. I picked up a 2010 Old Farmers Almanac at the bookstore and it’s painting quite an interesting picture for this winter here. More info soon…
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