Daily Archives: August 3, 2009

Long Range Forecast: Cooler, Wetter Pattern to Take Shape?


First, let’s talk about the temperatures. Of course right now we’re basking in sunshine and highs in the low to mid 80s, but model guidance suggests this may not go on forever. To some, that’s great news! To others, it could mean a big fat speed bump placed in summer’s roadway. The above map illustrates a 70% chance of below normal temperatures for the Pacific Northwest. The percentile has actually gone up quite a bit since a couple days ago when we were slated for “normal” temperatures in the long range.

And here’s the precip chance:


That’s right! A 50% chance of above normal precipitation (Remember, that doesn’t mean there’s also a 50% chance of below normal precipitation). Putting these two maps together, we can pretty much converge on one solution: it appears we’re headed for a cool and wetter weather regime for at least the next 10 days if not more. This isn’t to say summer is over by any means, it’s just going to take a little “summer vacation”. She’s been working over time, you know!

The more moist weather will also help out tremendously with the fires going on right now. Yesterday it was reported that there are 3 dozen wildfires burning in Western Washington, many in the Olympics. We could really use some substantial rain. And again, according to long range models, early next week may be our shot. Stay tuned!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap




PLUS 5 MORE-CAST (Long Range)