Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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“Thunderheads” and Possibly 103 Degrees Tomorrow

July 28th, 2009 by Matthew Leach

thunderheads

**NOTE: The above photo is not my photo nor was it taken today.  However, this is the same exact phenomena going on to our east right now!**

UPDATED 9:07 AM Wednesday, July 29th: Temperatures across the area at 9:00 are in the low to mid 80s with one station, specifically Sherman Hill Road in Poulsbo, reporting 91.2 degrees. This is several degrees warmer than where we were at this time yesterday, which was *only* in the upper 70s. The Bremerton Airport is reporting 84 degrees right now, so I think we’re still on track for triple digits today.

Also, air quality has diminished as expected with moderate concerns and it looks to be the same tomorrow. Click here for more info.

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Written Tuesday, July 28th, 2009 @ 6:25 PM:

Ok…I am officially done with this heatwave ;) The mercury spiked to 99 today, a two degrees off the 97 I predicted for the day.  Today’s Bremerton high of 99 breaks the old record of 96 set in 1998. And I promise you…tomorrow’s record of 97 set in 1998 will crumble like a two week old cookie.

In other news, currently IN my house it is 89 degrees. Heaven help us all…without  A/C. Overnight lows will get into the upper 60s and lower 70s so if you think relief will come tonight, think again. Why not lay out in the lawn and watch the meteor showers? View my last post for more info regarding this month’s meteor shower shows.

Now before I get to the 7 day, a few readers commented on the “thunderheads” popping up to our east in the cascades. Take a look outside if you can and snap a shot! You’d swear we were in Missouri or something, those pink thunderheads look pretty cool. Those have formed thanks to residual moisture from the Upper Level Low that affected us this weekend which is keeping us quite humid through Thursday.

Tomorrow will be a VERY hot day. Forget 100, I’m going for 103. Folks, this is history. We have never hit temperatures this warm before. Ever. July 29th, 2009 may be a day to remember (or forget!) On August 10th, 1981 Bremerton recorded a high of 101, but I’m really pushing for 103 (remember, it’s all about statistics for weather geeks no matter how uncomfortable it may be!) Today’s high temperatures overachieved by a couple degrees in areas today and I believe tomorrow will be impressively hot, hot, hot. Thursday we’ll *cool* to 101 (Never thought I’d say that! And to be honest I don’t think we’ll dip much farther than 98 degrees Thursday…)  

Low 90s is the story on Friday before we cool to the mid 80s through the weekend and into next week. In fact,  some models have been advertising a rebound to the 90s again mid week next week for another episode of “Heatwave 2009!” Goody…

Seriously folks…I’m trying to get cooler weather in here. I just wish I had that much control!

Have a safe and cool evening,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

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25 Responses to ““Thunderheads” and Possibly 103 Degrees Tomorrow”

  1. Shawn Says:

    That is a massive thunderhead.I wish it would decide to blow west.

  2. Matthew Leach Says:

    Me too! Unfortunately it will stay to our east :(

  3. Shawn Says:

    You know,I still have never got a good explanation on why thunderheads will build over the Cascades,but not the Olympics?

    For sure,I know about the conversion zone and why and how they build over the Cascades,but I dont understand why they dont build over the Olympics (as much).

    Any ideas?

  4. Connie Bickerton Says:

    Hi Matt – I love your blog, it seems to be the best forecast for the west sound I can find.

    Jeff Renner was calling for temps in the 90′s through the weekend and not “cooling off” to the low 80′s until the end of NEXT WEEK – a week from Friday. I see you are calling for the upper 80′s and low 90′s for the weekend. Is this ever going to end? If I wanted weather like this I wouldn’t live here.

    BTW — I sure haven’t seen many snide remarks about global warming like I was reading this past winter….

  5. lynette Says:

    I told you it was hot.

  6. Matthew Leach Says:

    Shawn: I don’t have a good answer for you right now…let me study up on a reasonable explanation and I’ll let you know! Great question :)

    Connie: Thank you very much! I’m very glad you find this blog useful :) I chose to be a bit more conservative for the weekend temperatures because models are still trying to converge on a solution and I don’t want to stress the public out, but according to the last few model runs, I may need to put Saturday back into the 90s and raise Sunday’s temperature a bit. I’ll wait until tomorrow’s model updates to do anything drastic like that. I mean for heavens sake! This is Western Washington! But we know a cool down will come SOMETIME, it’s just a matter of when. Stay tuned and thanks for reading!

    P.S. Oh, and I’ve noticed the same thing. I haven’t heard any comments about global warming either. I think with December ’08′s frigid/snowy/record-shattering weather and now this grueling heatwave, people on both ends of the global warming spectrum are very confused!

  7. Robin Says:

    I too noticed that there haven’t been any comments about global warming. But, Matthew, isn’t the definition of global warming NOT so much temperature but about weather patterns? Global warming and the concern for global warming is not an issue about whether it’s “hot” or “cold” in an area but about weather patterns that are altering or changing dramatically. I’d say the past winter’s record-stattering weather, along with this current record-stattering summer weather pattern is a candidate for global warming if there ever was one!

    And boy, I really wish you were going to be wrong about tomorrow!

  8. Matthew Leach Says:

    Robin: Great question!

    Virtually all definitions of global warming are relating to the gradual increase of ocean and land temperatures on Earth. HOW it’s caused is a completely different matter and can become quite controversial.

    Here’s my two cents: it is wise to go about the past 3 or 4 years as a definite sign of dramatic “climate change” versus strictly “warming”. The globe is changing, no doubt about that. But as it does so, very extreme events happen such as the possibility of reaching a never before seen or felt temperature in Western Washington’s history tomorrow. So…basically, we can’t pin extreme heat on warming or extreme cold on cooling: this is the result of a changing, unstable climate which will affect temperatures for the cooler and warmer and the lives of billions for the better and worse. So that was pretty much a roundabout way of saying, yes Robin, you’re right, a better definition of the world’s climate is “changing” not “warming” or “cooling”. :)

    And you never know! I am far from perfect. We may not hit 103 or even 100, but seeing as how we exceeded today’s predicted temp by a couple degrees and knowing tomorrow will be warmer, it only makes sense we’ll break 100! Stay cool out there and thanks for the questions! Always good to ask, cause I continue to learn as I answer them!

  9. Shawn Says:

    HAH go figure..the day after I say that,there is a big thunderhead over the Olympics right now..

    You should really watch the timelapse on Dr.Dales website right now,its an excellent example of how a thunderhead builds.

    drdale.com

  10. Craig Says:

    Shawn, I was thinking the same thing when I saw those thunderheads yesterday…it was sort of eery (sp) to see them to the East AND West!

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