Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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**HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT: Nearing 100 Degrees Midweek

July 26th, 2009 by Matthew Leach

100degrees

**A HEAT ADVISORY has been issued by the National Weather Service from noon Monday to 1 AM Thursday. Scroll down for details**

Say whaaa??

I like the National Weather Service…I really do. Sometimes they can be a little too conservative for me (remember, this is weather not politics ;) ) and I get frustrated with them, but overall I think they do a great job. But reading their forecast discussion this afternoon almost made me faint. Here’s an excerpt of their discussion:

“BOTH THE NAM12 AND MM5 SOLUTIONS SHOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEARING
100 DEG OVER THE INTERIOR OF W WA FROM SEATTLE SOUTHWARD BY WED
AFTERNOON.
THE
MESO MODELS HAVE BEEN OVER PREDICTING TEMPERATURES BY
A FEW DEGREES IN THESE SITUATIONS THIS YEAR…SO
FORECASTS FOR A 98
AT KSEA
(Sea-Tac Airport) AND 100 AT KOLM (Olympia) LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.”

Forecasts of 98 and 100 look “reasonable”? Oh no it doesn’t! But in all reality, according to the models we get some real pumpin’ heat in here Wednesday and would not be surprised if we scraped 100 degrees somewhere on the peninsula. On average, we end up two degrees warmer than Downtown Seattle on a given day in the summer, two degrees cooler in the winter (elevation and proximity to the Olympic Mountains plays a big role). If the NWS feels 98  degrees is “reasonable” for Sea-Tac on Wednesday, we could be looking at some serious heat over on this side of the water, my friends.

Anyway, you’ve heard enough from me. Tomorrow I’ll do the post about upcoming meteor showers like I promised. I’m already sick of reporting on this heatwave and I’m sure plenty of you are sick of hearing about it! Here’s the HEAT ADVISORY and AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY put out by the NWS moments ago:

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
341 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2009

…HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK…

.HOT WEATHER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HUMID AND STAGNANT
CONDITIONS. EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA.

WAZ504-505-507>509-511-271045-
/O.UPG.KSEW.EH.A.0001.090727T1900Z-090731T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KSEW.HT.Y.0002.090727T1900Z-090730T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KSEW.AS.Y.0002.090727T1900Z-090730T1900Z/
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-EVERETT AND VICINITY-
SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-TACOMA AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-
341 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2009

…AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON PDT
THURSDAY…
…HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM PDT
THURSDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED AN AIR
STAGNATION ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON
PDT THURSDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM PDT THURSDAY. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS AND ONLY LIGHT BREEZES.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM…FALLING ONLY INTO
THE 60S FOR A COUPLE HOURS LATE AT NIGHT IN MOST PLACES. EVEN
HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
INTERIOR SOUTH OF SEATTLE MAY REACH 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE STABLE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE DISPERSION OF POLLUTANTS
OF POLLUTANTS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY LEAD TO DETERIORATING AIR QUALITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TO AVOID HEAT STRESS…STAY HYDRATED AND AVOID STRENUOUS ACTIVITY
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.

CHECK UP ON ELDERLY OR DISABLED NEIGHBORS AND RELATIVES.

IF YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE BUILDUP OF POLLUTANTS…CHECK WITH
YOUR LOCAL AIR QUALITY AGENCY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

Be safe!!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

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31 Responses to “**HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT: Nearing 100 Degrees Midweek”

  1. Sally Says:

    The National Weather Service has zip 98367, the other zip in PO, at 100 on Wednesday.

  2. Matthew Leach Says:

    Not surprising at all! Then again, I typically don’t look at NOAA.gov for weather info because they tend to be several degrees too cool when it comes to warm spells here. So if they’re predicting 100 on Wednesday, I shudder to think what will actually happen!

  3. Patrick Says:

    Matthew I am beginning to not like you. Maybe you could start talking about cold weather and we might get some relief. Ever since you started talking about this heat wave it started up. :-)

  4. Matthew Leach Says:

    Haha thanks…? ;) If only it worked that way! How about this…come December I’ll predict a cold wave just in time for Christmas! I’ll make it up to all the cool weather fans :)

  5. Jason Says:

    It’s about time!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bring on the heat!!! We haven’t had agood hot summer in a couple of years.

  6. Matthew Leach Says:

    You’re very right! In fact, the last time we saw temperatures anywhere close to this was July 2006 at about this time. Bremerton hit 98 degrees on July 21st, 2006.

    If we were to say weather history repeats itself (which I believe it does) we may be in for quite a cold winter because while 2006’s summer was very warm in July and August, the winter was very cold and wet despite the El Nino. So enjoy the heat! :)

  7. Donna Says:

    MY HOME PAGE ON MSN SAID 103* ON WEDNESDAY THIS MORNING!! I SOOOO HOPE ITS WRONG! I SPENT A GOOD HOUR SITTING IN THE POOL WITH MY GRANDDAUGHTER TODAY AND IT WAS FUN, BUT YOU CANT KEEP YOUR HEAD UNDER WATER FOR THAT LONG!! THEN CAME IN AND SAT IN THE COOL HOUSE LOL!! A HUGE THANKS TO KITSAP COMMUNITY RESOURCES FOR MY NEW FURNACE AND HEAT PUMP AND MANY MANY NEW THINGS JUST A FEW MONTHS AGO!! I’M LOVING THE AIR CONDITIONING!!!

  8. eric Says:

    My noaa says 98 on wed, while the gfs gives me 100 and 100 wed and thrus and on their official forecast area gives seattle a 99 on thrus.

    Models off huh.

  9. Matthew Leach Says:

    Donna: Lucky duck! I wish there was A/C at my house, but alas it is a furnace right now. Oh well, at least we have plenty of fans! It’s great that you’re able to stay cool in the pool with your grandkids! Sound like fun :) I’m not sure about the 103 temperature reading, but I will say it is entirely possible.

    Eric: The GFS isn’t too far off with the triple digits Wed, though Thursday should be a few degrees cooler. I don’t think you’ll see 100 on Thurs or 99 for Seattle. But you never know!

  10. Kris Says:

    Time to get the blow up pool out and just relax in it. I HATE the heat. Give me 75 degrees and a breeze any day.

  11. Sharon O'Hara Says:

    Okay, Matt, I’ve just rescheduled an appointment for today…can’t breathe out there.

    Now, tell us who and how to contact our “…LOCAL AIR QUALITY AGENCY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.”

    Thanks for the rest of the story…
    Sharon O’Hara

  12. Matthew Leach Says:

    Kris: Sounds like fun! And I’m with you: 75 degrees+a breeze= perfection!

    Sharon: Please visit this website as it has all the information you need on our local air quality

    http://www.pscleanair.org/airq/basics/aqi.aspx

    The problem is not the air quality today, it is the humidity. Humidity makes it very hard to breathe outside and that is likely the issue many people are having along with you today. Tomorrow will be similarly humid, but by Wednesday as the humidity diminishes so does the overall air quality.

    This will be a very bad/straining week for those sensitive groups. I’m glad you know your limits! Stay safe!

    ~Matt

  13. Sharon O'Hara Says:

    Matt – I lump humid days as bad air quality days.

    If a person can’t breathe in the heat and humidity, wouldn’t you say the air quality is low?
    Will you comment further on the differences?
    Thanks!
    Sharon

  14. Matthew Leach Says:

    Sure. They’re both annoying factors in summertime weather, one is just more detrimental to health than the other.

    Humidity is essentially based on the water content within the air you breathe. This is not unhealthy for you, it is just very uncomfortable and stuffy to breathe. The air “quality” can be perfectly fine, but the “breathing quality” may not be.

    Air stagnation is composed of many pollutants within the atmosphere when a certain area (like us) goes for a prolonged period of dry weather. It’s like someone putting a “cap” of sorts on our air, making it stale, polluted and it doesn’t circulate. We need rain to freshen up the air quality.

    Does that make more sense? Stagnation= unhealthy and polluted. Humid= uncomfortable/annoying/moist.

  15. Sharon O'Hara Says:

    Thanks for the url…
    Sharon

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