Daily Archives: July 15, 2009

PHOTO: Mother Nature is a Huskies Fan? Drat!

uw_lightning

Darn it 😉

Scott Sistek, KOMO 4 Weather Producer, hosted this story on his blog and I just had to share it. Keith Thorpe, with the Peninsula Daily News, captured this lightning photo Sunday night illustrating what appears to be a “U” and “W”. And, to top it all off, the backdrop couldn’t be any better with a dark purple accompanying the strikes. (This still hasn’t persuaded me to become a Huskies fan, by the way…) You can buy a print of the above photo at peninsuladailynews.com .

But if you happen to be a Coug, I’m sure we can spot a few good crimson sunsets within the next couple days as skies will be mostly sunny with highs in the 80s. We cool off this weekend with  gray skies returning to the area, but the clouds will break once again through next week with gradually warming temperatures and more crimson sunsets instead of that gray stuff we’ve seen so much of this month!

**HEATWAVE UPDATE: Long range models have back off somewhat on the heat late next week into next weekend and the following week. This is good for those who don’t want crimson skin! This is not to say all bets are off, however. This is what we call an “outlier” model—a model that advertises something very different than what it was advertising consistently before. For those who like the EXTREME heat, hope the models turn back around!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

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AccuWeather.com Releases 2009-2010 Winter Outlook…?!

I know what most of you are saying: “What in the world?! It’s mid July for heavens sake! Enjoy the summer! Why start making predictions for the upcoming winter?!” I believe it is because one (or both) of two reasons

1) The Upper Midwest/East Coast has so far suffered through a less-than-desirable summer season with very wet and chilly conditions. To them, it isn’t summer and it feels like October, which is usually when they release their winter outlooks.

2) They’re bored and have nothing else better to do.

Now, I am no fan of AccuWeather’s short range weather, but they do pretty good with the long range (8-15 days out). Their REALLY long range forecasts have proven very general, vague and not worth really reading into, but this year they were more specific with what they expected the Pacific Northwest to go through this winter. Here’s what Chief Meteorologist (and Northeast Biased) Joe Bastardi (yes, that’s his last name) illustrated for December-February 2009-2010:

largewinter09-10

I won’t go a whole lot into the forecast discussion they provided because I still think providing winter forecasts in mid July is much too early—even for me. I will say, though, that the outlook for the 2010 Winter Olympics is dismal with snow and ice levels below normal. You can read the full article here.

What makes long range winter forecasts impossible to predict this time of year is the lack of information we have concerning El Nino or La Nina, but in this case El Nino. Bastardi says he believes the El Nino will fade during the winter and play a very minimal part in the winter weather this year. But there really is no way to say for certain until we get into September or October.

Anyway, take this information however you wish. A warmer and drier than normal winter, compared to the last two winters of course, has it’s pros and cons and I think such a winter would be welcome to many after the very rough and extreme winters we’ve had over the past 3 years.

**HEATWAVE UPDATE (7/24-7/28): Long range models are still advertising some hot weather late next week into the following week, but it’s now looking like it will last for a shorter amount of time than first thought. Still, the time frame is still good to go with the brunt of the heat occuring between July 24th and the 28th. Again, stay tuned!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

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