Forecasting Kitsap

Well, it’s time to check up on the long range forecast I produced almost two weeks ago predicting what the weather would be like for this week. On June 29th, I wrote a blog post titled: Nice Little Heatwave to Ring in July? which highlighted the potential for early July heat (which ended up happening) and I also posted a long range forecast map predicting the weather for July 7th-11th (Tuesday through today). Here was the map I produced on the 29th:

So let’s critique how I did. Looking at the Bremerton records here’s what we have (records from 8 AM to 8 PM:

July 7th: 68/48 Overcast/Mostly Cloudy…I’ll give myself an A- on this one. My forecasted temperature was a few degrees off (I had mid 60s forecasted). In long range forecasts I don’t forecast the low temperature because in the summer it doesn’t play a big role in the overall weather for that day, so that won’t be factored in. I managed to get the sky condition right with mostly cloudy skies predicted. Overall, a cool and cloudy forecast indeed came true.

July 8th: 62/44 Overcast with Sprinkles…while sprinkles don’t get measured in the rain gauge, many of us remember on Wednesday when light showers popped up around the peninsula. I was about 5 or so degrees off with this one (I forecast upper 60s) but the overcast skies with light precipitation and continued cool temperatures did come true. I’ll give myself another A-.

July 9th: 71/44 Overcast…where I was (in Silverdale) the sun definitely came out, but it was a largely overcast day. I did manage to predict highs in the low 70s, though. I’ll give myself a B+.

July 10th: 80/48 Sunny…I forecasted partly sunny skies with highs in the mid 70s. While I wasn’t precise on temperatures OR sky conditions, I was accurate in the sense that we would be gradually warming up this week with pleasant conditions. But that unfortunately doesn’t count in order to give myself a higher grade. I’ll give myself a B.

July 11th (Today): 86/48 Sunny…I’ll give myself some credit on this one. Skies were largely clear (though throughout the day clouds have increased) and I did accurately call for a warmer and sunnier start to the weekend, even though at face value the temperatures predicted in the long range map would classify as upper 70s/low 80s. Still, it largely went according to plan. I’ll give myself an A-.

So there you have it. Don’t take this critique the wrong way—I’m not boasting or jumping up on a pedestal here because of one accurate long range prediction. I just wanted to hold myself to the prediction I made two weeks ago to see if I was able to accurately “predict the future” So overall, I’ll give myself an A-, but I’d like your input as well. Maybe I missed something here that would count against/for my forecast grades. Heck, feel free to give ME a grade!

As far as the short term is concerned, a marine push will arrive tonight offering low clouds, showers and maybe even some thunderstorms later this evening, though that chance is dwindling for our area. The East Puget Sound Lowlands could score some thunderstorm activity with the mountains winning the lottery.

After Sunday’s gray weather we break out in partial sunshine and highs in the mid 70s through a good chunk of next week. Stay tuned, cause we could end up even warmer than that!

I’ll post another long range prediction in the next couple days.

Have a great evening!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

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This entry was posted on Saturday, July 11th, 2009 at 4:11 pm and is filed under Long Range Thoughts, This Blog, Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.