Well, it’s time to check up on the
long range forecast I produced almost two weeks ago predicting what
the weather would be like for this week. On June 29th, I wrote a
blog post titled: Nice Little Heatwave to Ring in
July? which highlighted the potential for early July heat
(which ended up happening) and I also posted a long range forecast
map predicting the weather for July 7th-11th (Tuesday through
today). Here was the map I produced on the 29th:
So let’s critique how I did. Looking at the Bremerton records here’s what we have
(records from 8 AM to 8 PM:
July 7th: 68/48 Overcast/Mostly Cloudy…I’ll
give myself an A- on this one. My forecasted temperature was a
few degrees off (I had mid 60s forecasted). In long range forecasts
I don’t forecast the low temperature because in the summer it
doesn’t play a big role in the overall weather for that day, so
that won’t be factored in. I managed to get the sky condition right
with mostly cloudy skies predicted. Overall, a cool and cloudy
forecast indeed came true.
July 8th: 62/44 Overcast with Sprinkles…while
sprinkles don’t get measured in the rain gauge, many of us remember
on Wednesday when light showers popped up around the peninsula. I
was about 5 or so degrees off with this one (I forecast upper 60s)
but the overcast skies with light precipitation and continued cool
temperatures did come true. I’ll give myself another A-.
July 9th: 71/44 Overcast…where I was (in
Silverdale) the sun definitely came out, but it was a largely
overcast day. I did manage to predict highs in the low 70s, though.
I’ll give myself a B+.
July 10th: 80/48 Sunny…I forecasted partly
sunny skies with highs in the mid 70s. While I wasn’t precise on
temperatures OR sky conditions, I was accurate in the sense that we
would be gradually warming up this week with pleasant conditions.
But that unfortunately doesn’t count in order to give myself a
higher grade. I’ll give myself a B.
July 11th (Today): 86/48 Sunny…I’ll give myself
some credit on this one. Skies were largely clear (though
throughout the day clouds have increased) and I did accurately call
for a warmer and sunnier start to the weekend, even though at face
value the temperatures predicted in the long range map would
classify as upper 70s/low 80s. Still, it largely went according to
plan. I’ll give myself an A-.
So there you have it. Don’t take this critique the wrong way—I’m
not boasting or jumping up on a pedestal here because of one
accurate long range prediction. I just wanted to hold myself to the
prediction I made two weeks ago to see if I was able to accurately
“predict the future” 🙂 So overall, I’ll give myself an A-, but I’d
like your input as well. Maybe I missed something here that would
count against/for my forecast grades. Heck, feel free to give ME a
grade!
As far as the short term is concerned, a marine push will arrive
tonight offering low clouds, showers and maybe even some
thunderstorms later this evening, though that chance is dwindling
for our area. The East Puget Sound Lowlands could score some
thunderstorm activity with the mountains winning the lottery.
After Sunday’s gray weather we break out in partial sunshine and
highs in the mid 70s through a good chunk of next week. Stay tuned,
cause we could end up even warmer than that!
I’ll post another long range prediction in the next couple
days.
Have a great evening!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
forecastingkitsap@live.com
7 DAY
FORECAST
