Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
forecastingkitsap@live.com
Monthly Archives: May 2009
What’s Up With This Wind?
The answer? The Pacific Ocean is stormy! Wind events like the ones we’ve been experiencing are very rare for this time of year and even in the fall and winter time windstorms don’t exactly happen this close to one another. I think I probably would’ve enjoyed today much more if it weren’t so windy, but I think I’m just being ungrateful. A local sailor would probably be in heaven with this kind of weather. It all depends on who you ask.
Bottom line? It wasn’t as rainy or cloudy as forecasting models projected it would be, but it appears we’re not out of the woods when it comes to active and chilly weather. An unseasonably chilly low pressure system will swing into the area tonight which will last a good part of tomorrow dropping rain, sun, mountain snow and even thundershowers. As previously mentioned, highs will be quite chilly rising only into the low and mid 50s which is almost 10 degrees below normal.
The chilly and wet weather continues Wednesday, though this will probably be the wettest and cloudiest day of the week. Thundershowers return for Thursday before a nice mild and sunny streak builds into the area for later this week into the weekend. This means blue skies and highs near 70. If I could add an editorial real quick: Partly sunny skies with highs in the low 70s is my favorite spring/summer weather pattern. I honestly wouldn’t mind if that were the forecast every day this summer, even though the low 70s isn’t warm enough for a nice swim in Kitsap Lake.
Let’s get through the work week and hope we don’t get “sick” on Friday resulting in a 3 day weekend!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
7 DAY FORECAST
Heigh-ho, Heigh-ho, It’s Off To More Fall-like Weather We Go!
“But May isn’t supposed to be like this!”
April showers bring May flowers? Yeah right. So far we’ve had two windstorms, two rainstorms, mountain snow and cold temperatures. April had those moments too, but c’mon…it’s May! Speaking of April, the NOAA released its national temperature record for April 2009 and here’s what they have:
I think we all knew April was a chilly month so the above map probably isn’t too shocking, but I guess because we are now in the month of May expectations are soaring for beautiful weather, as they should be. So let’s break down the forecast:
The ugly weather will be here for the beginning of the week (that seems to have been the trend over the past few weeks, actually) with a pretty wet system moving in tonight and harassing us most of the day tomorrow before we calm down for Monday night into Tuesday morning. The break will be short lived though as a few organized bands of rain will move through the region during the day. Highs both Monday and Tuesday will be in the low to mid 50s, so it will be significantly colder than normal.
Wednesday looks like a typical partly sunny day with showers, but Thursday looks like an active day with partly sunny moments and dark, rainy moments with a hail/thunderstorm possible in the afternoon as a convergence zone sags into our area. Highs will stay in the 50s.
It appears a ridge of high pressure will build in Thursday night delivering sunshine and warmer temperatures for Friday and the weekend! Great timing! But let’s hope this lasts…I don’t know how much more of this active weather I can take! 😉 (ok, to be honest I wouldn’t mind more active weather! But shhh…don’t tell!)
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
7 DAY FORECAST
Wonderful Weather for Our Wonderful Mothers!
After a week of AP testing and other tedious school projects, I am finally able to log back on and make some weather blog posts!
My mother woke up this morning to beautiful sunshine and considered that my Mother’s Day gift to her. Of course, I consulted Mother Nature and arranged for a mild, partly sunny day. My other gift was Alec Greven’s How to Talk to Moms. It’s quite hilarious. I recommend it, especially because it is written by a 9-year-old 🙂
Also, is it just my mom or do all moms wake up really early in the morning? All of us kids woke up at 9:00 and mom was already up. We pushed her back into bed (ok, we didn’t really PUSH her, but you know what I mean…) and told her to wait for breakfast. What’s Mother’s Day without breakfast in bed?
I hope all of you mothers have a beautiful and relaxing day today and I’ll post a 7 day weather update this evening. 🙂
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
A Drenching Start to May!
Photo by Mike Dominowski
We have had a ridiculously wet start to May and I know a lot of you are wanting some statistics:
We received over an inch of rain yesterday (according to the Bremerton National Airport, that is. A record rainfall of 0.59 inches was set at Seattle-Tacoma WA Airport yesterday. This breaks the old record of 0.56 set in 1948. Several other records were broken around the region as well.
From May 1st through today we’ve received 1.84” so far which is 0.06” above the monthly precipitation average! According to long range forecast models we may continue to add to that total. It would be truly impressive to make it to 2.00” by the end of the month, but I know most of you just want the rain to end now! So let’s get to the forecast…
Tomorrow will be another mainly cloudy and showery day, but the worst of the May Monster is done. Highs will still remain cooler than normal in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
This weekend looks splendid at this point (you know I have to add “at this point” just in case!) But forecast models have been quite consistent on a dry and generally sunny weekend. That’s great news because I have a lawn waiting for me to mow!
Next week looks a lot like tomorrow’s forecast: mostly cloudy with rain systems moving in from time to time keeping temperatures in check which means highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Don’t worry, though! Long range models are wanting to dry us out and warm us up again in the not-too-distant-future. We deserve it! 🙂
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
7 DAY FORECAST (click to enlarge)
**WINDSTORM UPDATE–Dubbed “The May Monster”
**A WIND ADVISORY is still in effect from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM tomorrow morning. An unseasonably strong windstorm is projected to pound areas of Western Washington tonight, click here for the report from the National Weather Service**
“The May Monster”
That has quite the ring to it! And it is aptly named. You don’t have to have a meteorology degree to look at the above satellite picture and know that what is and has been brewing in the Pacific Ocean right off our coast is an impressive, tightly-wound son of a gun. There is some good news as new details have come in so let’s break this down:
It appears the track of this storm will prevent anything TOO destructive from hitting the inland locations of Western Washington because the projected landfall is on the northern tip of Vancouver Island, bringing us moderately breezy to windy conditions versus an all out assault of wind and rain.
Also, this storm will be relatively short-lived. Expect the windiest weather to occur overnight into early tomorrow morning, which could prove a good thing because a windstorm in the middle of the day is less than ideal. By Tuesday morning we should actually see some sunbreaks and calmer weather so you should all be sleeping through the worst of it—that is, unless the wind doesn’t wake you up! Oooh, that reminds me…you should probably tie down anything that could be tossed away by the wind outside. If you didn’t see what happened at my house during Saturday’s storm, here’s the picture again:
So yeah…lesson learned 🙂 To find out more on how this affects the commute, especially along the Hood Canal click here
The sun returns for the latter part of this week and into the weekend, but I’m hesitant to make it a COMPLETELY dry weekened. I’ll wait another day before I completely yank out the showers.
Have a safe night! Get those flashlights ready 🙂
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
7 DAY FORECAST
**WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED**–Update on Tonight’s Rare Windstorm
**A WIND ADVISORY has been issued by the National Weather Service in Seattle due to an impending late season storm typically seen in late fall/early winter rather than the beginning of May. Click here for the report**
We’re still on track for a very impressive late-season storm that will bring sustained winds of 20+ mph and gusts of 40+ mph. A High Wind Watch has also been posted for the coast with gusts as high as 60 mph, so if you have any plans to visit the coast between this evening and tomorrow afternoon, you may think about making alternate plans…
Isn’t this crazy? I don’t remember ever hearing about or forecasting such a strong storm so late in the spring. I’ll do some research on exactly how rare this event is, but I’m pretty darn sure this doesn’t happen often. Heck, we already went through a wind/rain storm this past weekend, so if tonight’s windstorm pans out we could be looking at two very strong spring storms within the span of two days.
Weird…
More updates this evening
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
**WEATHER UPDATE–Another Late Season Windstorm in the Forecast
Are you kidding me?
Yesterday was quite an adventurous day with the first half calm and damp, but the second half very wet and stormy. I had to run into Silverdale yesterday evening and was amazed by not only the size of the raindrops but the warm air outside. It felt like a rainstorm in the Midwest! And then the powerful winds came last night, toppling over our canopy that you saw at the top of this blog.
Truly incredible.
And what is more incredible is the possibility of a second act as remnants of a tropical storm east of the northern Philippine Islands named “Kujira” swings into our area producing high winds and heavy rain. Wait…let me take a look at the calendar…yup! It’s early May, not early March! Anyway, tomorrow will start out pleasant enough but come Monday night into Tuesday fasten your seat belts and get ready for another rare, late-season windstorm. Sustained winds could be in the 20s and 30s with gusts as high as 45 mph. And here’s another thing: it’ll be mild because of its origins. To read the Special Weather Statement issued by the NWS, click here.
The weather calms down but stays rather gloomy through the end of the week, though the sun still looks to make a decent appearance Friday afternoon.
The weekend looks somewhat tolerable with a showery Saturday and dry Sunday. Don’t hold your breath though! At this rate I half expect a snowstorm to ruin any weekend plans 🙂
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
forecastingkitsap@live.com (have any windstorm photos? Feel free to share!)
7 DAY FORECAST
Summer 2009 Weather Forecast Released
So here’s the big question: are we in for a hot, dry summer this year? Or a slow start to the season like last year? Well, if we’re to believe long range monthly outlooks (which are usually guidelines rather than precise fortune tellers) we could be in for a pretty typical summer.
According to Canadian long range forecaster Brett Anderson, we could see a sluggish start to summer with a cooler and wetter than normal June, but once we hit July summer will begin in the Northwest. This far out it is impossible to predict if we’ll see any heatwaves, but if we’re going to have them July would be the month.
August is typically our driest and warmest month and while it will be dry, it doesn’t look as warm as July. That’s not to say it’ll be cooler than normal just typical, meaning average high temperatures in the mid 70s.
And then we’re given a clue into how Fall 2009 may start out: September, at this time, looks cold and wet but no more detail is necessary because that’s five months away.
So overall it looks like a very pleasant summer is on the way with periods of refreshingly cool weather and hot weather just to make things interesting. Of course, humidity will be low which makes Northwest summers so enjoyable. Here’s to a pleasantly warm and seasonable summer! 🙂
The forecast for the short term isn’t nearly as optimistic but it isn’t all that bad either. After a mostly cloudy and wet day today you’ll be glad to know more in the way of sunbreaks is in store for your Sunday. It won’t be completely rain free, but it will be an overall nicer day. Highs will struggle to hit the 60 degree mark.
Monday starts out cloudy and damp but a stronger system barrels in Monday evening through Tuesday morning making it look more like early April than early May. In fact, this system looks unseasonably strong so I’ll keep an eye on it. Some breezy winds could come along for the ride as well so keep that in mind.
A “blah” mix of cloudy skies, rain showers and peeks of sunshine rule the remainder of the forecast, but there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel. By the end of the week and into next weekend we could say hello to the sunshine again as highs bounce into the 60s.
How many of you wish we had a fast forward button on the weather?
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
7 DAY FORECAST
