Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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Archive for April, 2009

Mars as Big as the Moon this August?? I Wouldn’t Count On It…

Wednesday, April 29th, 2009

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That’s a bummer…

Snopes.com released the truth regarding a phony e-mail widely circulated throughout the internet. If you received something that has to do with Mars appearing as big as the moon this August and this event being the only one you’ll witness in your lifetime…DELETE IT. It’s a phony.

To read the Snopes article (which is a great site to check if some e-mails you get are spam) click here. Scott Sistek, author of the KOMO 4 Weather Blog on komotv.com, investigated this story further and has some interesting things to say. Click here if you’re interested.

The weather for the next couple of days will, however, be something to get excited about as a brief bout with partly/mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures is in the forecast. Unfortunately these pleasant mild days are in the forecast for tomorrow and Friday, not the weekend, which has gone back to the cloudy/gloomy/wet theme. Highs won’t be incredibly cold over the weekend though as they’ll stay in the 60s.

Cool, cloudy and showery weather continues into next week leaving the first several days of May quite cooler than normal.

Hmmm…I guess it’s a good thing that Mars e-mail was a hoax. At this rate we wouldn’t even be able to see it anyway! :)

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

P.S. I will post a video forecast either tomorrow or Friday depending on which one is less busy!

7 DAY FORECAST

55


Swine Flu: How Weather Can Play a Role in Sickness Part 1

Tuesday, April 28th, 2009

swine1697sunny-day

I guess after reading this article it makes sense: weather has played and continues to play a role in spreading sickness—and the swine flu is no exception. (By the way…this is allergies season and I have created a new poll about it. Do you suffer from them? Or did you luck out?)

“Accuweather.com reports that warmer temperatures mean more gatherings/outdoor events resulting in a higher risk of associating with someone who is infected with the disease, which can be up to 7 days. A simple sneeze or cough in a public place can allow a dispersion of the virus thereby expanding the outbreak.”

Accuweather also notes: “the warmer spring weather also means more vacations and more people traveling. That means some of the cases might be related to people traveling into Mexico, the outbreak’s epicenter.” Accuweather.com Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity says to be safe, before traveling it would be wise to check the CDC website for travel restrictions/more information concerning the outbreak.

Thankfully there have been no reports of swine flu in Washington (*knock on wood*) and I sure hope it stays that way. For some good tips on how to stay safe/healthy during this outbreak you can click here.

Now let’s talk about the weather. This morning was certainly wet and cloudy as predicted but the sun has come out and what you see outside right now will be the trend over the next few days. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday look partly to mostly sunny with highs starting out in the low 60s Wednesday but jumping to the upper 60s by Friday. So this means a good weekend, right!

Ehhh…not exactly. Models have been having a tough time with the forecast pattern for Saturday but they paint a generally wet and cloudy day with Sunday being the better of the two. It’ll also be cooler with highs dropping back to the 50s/low 60s.

Long range pattern? Still looking kinda cool and showery…not where I’d like to see us headed. But then again, as a staff member at school “April showers bring May flowers, but May flowers still bring May showers.” I suppose that’s the tradeoff :)

Have a great evening and be safe!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

8


19 Degrees in Bremerton? No Way!

Sunday, April 26th, 2009

I received an e-mail from a Forecasting Kitsap and Kitsap Sun reader who noticed something looked a little fishy on the “Temperature Trends” graph in the weather section of the Sun: a low of -15 degrees last Saturday. I knew it was cold but no way was it THAT cold! It turns out there was an obvious typo and the “actual” recorded low was 19 degrees. Come again? That’s right. The Bremerton Airport recorded a low in the teens. But is it reliable?

Click here to read the full story.

You see, that’s why I love living here. The weather always keeps you guessing!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com


Suffering From Allergies? Here’s Your Pollen Count

Saturday, April 25th, 2009

Mother Nature left a present on my car this morning!

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Pollen is everywhere! Why?

Pollen tends to thrive in warmer and drier air which resulted in high pollen levels yesterday. Today the pollen has weakened due to higher dewpoints and lower temperatures but tomorrow will serve to be another day with high pollen. Here’s the pollen forecast for today:

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and the pollen forecast for tomorrow:

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Predominant pollen: Mulberry, Sycamore and Ash (for the link to daily pollen forecasts click here)

So I suppose the warmer and sunnier weather will have to come at a price! But there are a few forecast wrinkles that may not make this week as stunning as it was looking (but then again we are still in spring after all and 7 days of beautiful sunny weather usually ends up looking to good to be true).

Tomorrow will be partly sunny but look for increasing rain showers likely in the evening. This means a moist Monday morning but the rest of the day should be seasonable with partly sunny skies.

A system approaches our area for Tuesday which means it looks cloudier and wetter than previous models were forecasting. It’ll also be a smidgen cooler. The sun and warmer temperatures in the 60s break out from Wednesday through Friday before a larger storm system looks to affect the area Saturday. I REALLY hope that changes because Saturday is “Super Saturday” for the CK School District and it’d be nice to do outdoor work in sunny weather. We’ll see!

The long range forecast has really been waffling but the general trend is for cooler than normal temperatures (highs in the 50s) with a series of wet systems. Long range forecaster Brett Anderson of AccuWeather.com agrees with this forecast as well and actually predicts most of May will be chilly and wet. Great!…NOT

Well, I suppose the best thing we can do is soak up all the nice sunny days ahead just in case we never seem them again :) Stay in there allergy sufferers!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

7 DAY FORECAST

78


Too Early For the Ice Cream Man?

Friday, April 24th, 2009

ice-cream-truck

Maybe THIS should have been my poll question!

I was sitting at the coffee table doing some school work (well, actually I was on Facebook working on talking to some friends from school, so technically I was doing school work…) when I heard a familiar song from a familiar moving vehicle—a song that still to this day makes my heart jump and my hands reach for my pockets in hope for a one dollar bill. What was that noise?

The Ice Cream Truck playing Scott Joplin’s The Entertainer.

I quickly sat myself back down when I realized my 18th birthday is two weeks away and buying an ice cream cone from the Ice Cream Man would feel a little awkward. But I also thought about the oddity of the situation: isn’t it late April?…and… Didn’t we wake up to frosty lawns this morning? (NOTE: I’ll do a garden forecast soon, but until then I’d hold off on starting those gardens right now…for those who have lived here for a really long time know you should at least wait until Memorial Day weekend to plant stuff because sporadic mid spring freezes are quite common) To top it all off high temperatures didn’t even break 60 degrees across a large portion of Kitsap, so what’s the deal?

I think the Ice Cream Man has a serious case of summer fever as do many other Kitsap residents. I thought it was pretty cool to see the truck though. While much too early, it is at least a sign that we’re getting ever closer to summery weather. For the short term we’re definitely going to be sunnier for the next week or so than we have been for quite a while, but it isn’t exactly looking warm as cool northerly flow will keep the temperatures close to normal in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Tomorrow looks like the only day for the next seven that will be even the slightest bit threatening as mostly cloudy skies and showers overtake the area with highs in the low to mid 50s.

But by Sunday through the rest of next week we stick to a pretty steady theme of partly to mostly sunny skies and slightly cooler than comfortable temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

I’ll do a long range update tomorrow, but I’ll give you a hint where we’re headed: back down the roller coaster…

Have a great evening!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

7 DAY FORECAST

61


POLL: So Far This Spring Has Been…

Thursday, April 23rd, 2009

ambience-umbrella

In last weeks poll, “What is Your Favorite Weatherman Pick-up Line?” the line: “I better post a High Wind Warning because you’re blowing me away!” was the reader favorite with “Your heart is as warm as a strong El Nino; will you be my La Nina?” coming in second place. Hope you had some fun with those!

This weeks poll is one I’ve been meaning to ask you guys: what is your opinion on this spring? I actually asked quite a few staff members/students at my school about their thoughts concerning this spring and not everyone’s answer was the same. So, I decided to put it to the test to see what you think about our temperatures/precipitation since spring began in March.

Now let’s talk about weather :) A Forecasting Kitsap reader asked me today if we can ever have heat waves/warm episodes from warm air that filters from the south like California or Mexico. The answer is absolutely! In fact, our most recent warm episode early this week was partly due to a warm thermal pocket enveloping the southwest. From time to time we get a taste of that and early this week we most certainly did! In the summer we can also have those southerly winds that bring in warm air into our region. Good question!

The forecast for tomorrow will be very similar to day except without the rain. That means partly sunny skies and pleasant high temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s.

A minor system affects us Saturday which should bring nothing more than some cloud cover and a few sprinkles. Highs will cool to the mid to upper 50s.

And then we exhale in relief as the rest of the forecast consists of mostly sunny skies and high temps in the low to mid 60s. Is there a chance to reach the 70s again? You bet, but right now it is looking like just a mild ridge as opposed to a warm ridge.

Have a great evening and enjoy the sunshine!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

7 DAY FORECAST

51


Cool Earth Day Photos

Wednesday, April 22nd, 2009

Happy Earth Day everyone. There’s a favorite website of mine called “earthshots.org” that supplies breathtaking photos from around the world displaying the majestic beauty of our Earth. I have saved a few of my favorites and would like to share them with you:

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Absolutely stunning! Remember, if you have some cool photos feel free to e-mail them to me at forecastingkitsap@live.com and I’ll be sure to host them!

So how’s our weather looking for the rest of the week? Well, onshore flow certainly kicked in today which brought in the low clouds and drizzle and tomorrow will be quite similar. Scott Sistek of KOMO 4 likened our pattern to a poem with a classic AA-BB-CC pattern with Monday and Tuesday similar, today and tomorrow similar, and Thursday and Friday looking similar.

And for those wishing upon a star for some more sunny and warm weather the forecast looks beautiful for late this weekend into the first half of next week, so it appears we may have another dry streak! (hey that rhymed! This IS a poem-like pattern! :) )

Have a great evening,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

7 DAY FORECAST

4


Onshore Flow and Offshore Flow: Which Makes For A Nice, Hot Day?

Monday, April 20th, 2009

This question gets brought up from time to time: what is onshore/offshore flow and what affect does it have on our temperatures? The answer is actually really simple and today was a good example of why it didn’t get warmer than the low 70s today when models were indicating we could have.

ONSHORE FLOW: fogThis is where we get our “sea breeze” in the summer time that keeps the  temperatures here from getting TOO hot. These winds originate off the ocean and blow west to east onshore, hence “onshore flow”, which in turn keep us cooler and can also make us a little cloudier than we want to be as winds off the ocean usually bring low clouds with them.

OFFSHORE FLOW: 1697sunny-dayThis is exactly the opposite. These winds originate on land and usually blow from east to west towards the ocean bringing in warmer air from Eastern Washington with it. These are the setups that bring us our summer heatwaves.

And of course in the winter the situation is different. An onshore component is typically a bad one if you want snow as the moderate ocean air colliding with the little cold air we have in the interior can usually scour out any chances for a nice dumping of snow, however without a little onshore flow it gets hard to produce moisture for the snow in the first place. Conversely, offshore flow filters in bitterly cold air from Eastern Washington, but this is typically a dry cold and we don’t usually see major snow events with those setups.

So now can you guess what flow we are under today? If you guessed “onshore flow” you win! The cool sea breeze from the west has been lightly blowing all day, but the downside to this is the low clouds it will likely bring tomorrow morning. The areas that will not be so lucky are the northern portions of the state while the southern areas will get another nice sunny and warm day to enjoy. I’m thinking we’ll be right in between the low clouds but partial sunshine in the afternoon. Highs will be a little cooler than today in the mid to upper 60s. But hey, despite the onshore flow it’ll be a nice day.

Onshore flow REALLY kicks in for Wednesday as low clouds make a move and cool temperatures down dramatically. Highs will have a hard time reaching 60 degrees believe it or not!

The cool temperatures continue for the rest of the forecast, but interestingly enough it doesn’t look incredibly cloudy or wet, just partly sunny with occasional bouts with rain.

Have a good evening!

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

7 DAY FORECAST

3


Beautiful Day For a Picnic! Who Wants Seconds?

Sunday, April 19th, 2009

picnic

The type of weather we experienced today might be compared to your favorite meal…if you only have one helping, you feel good but not quite satisfied. Would you like a  little more Sunshine Surprise for tomorrow as well? Ok, we can give that to you and how about Tuesday? Thirds are always nice unless you’re on a diet. But c’mon, who is on a sunshine diet?

Tonight expect mostly clear skies ahead of the crystal clear skies tomorrow. Highs will be quite warm in the low to mid 70s. Today’s high was 68 degrees, just a couple degrees shy of the predicted 70, so even if I’m a couple degrees off tomorrow’s temperature, EVERYONE will still be happy. Mmmm that second helping feels good!

Models have come around to the idea of a slower break down of our nice ridge so mild temperatures and sunshine will be the theme for Tuesday was well. Highs will be just a couple degrees cooler than tomorrow in the mid to upper 60s. Are you full yet?

Wednesday now doesn’t look as cloudy and wet with only a few showers here and there (don’t you love it when the forecast models back off on precipitation like this? If we were in December and talking about snow I’d be a little disappointed, but now I’m perfectly fine with it!). Thursday, Friday and the weekend look quite similar with non-threatening rain showers and partly to mostly cloudy skies.

In fact, peeking at the long range no real threatening storms look likely in the future with possibly some more warm episodes for mid to late week next week.

I guess we’re going on a rain and clouds diet versus a sunshine diet!

Have a great evening,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

7 DAY FORECAST

2


Louis, the Little Weatherman That Could…Not Keep His Cool

Saturday, April 18th, 2009

I came across this video a little while ago on YouTube and could not believe my eyes. Have you ever been asked to do something last minute that required you to use talents/skills you didn’t have and had to pull it off in front of a lot of people you may or may not have known? If you haven’t, this is a good example of what that experience is like. Poor guy…

You have to give him kudos for finishing the whole broadcast as unbearable as it might have been for him (and us). The good news is that the weather here will not be unbearable for the next couple of days as a large area of high pressure has built in over the area giving us sunshine and warm temps in the 70s for not only tomorrow but Monday as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some mid and upper 70s on Monday.

Typical Washington State spring-like weather returns as early as Tuesday evening.

Have a great evening and make a goal to try out a new skill over the next couple of days. You never know when you may be asked to use it without much notice :)

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

7 DAY FORECAST

1


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