Forecasting Kitsap

My family has been hosting a foreign exchange student named John Mhando from Tanzania (southeast Africa) for about 7 months now. When I first met him in late August the very first thing I asked him was: “Have you ever seen snow before?” (I try really hard not to talk about weather when introducing myself to people, but I couldn’t resist!)

He looked at me with a puzzled expression on his face, thought a moment and said: “Snow? A little bit on the top of Mount Kilimanjaro…” (He lives in a village near the base of the mountain)

“Have you ever seen it fall?” I asked. He shook his head no. I was absolutely stunned. Until then I thought EVERYONE had experienced a snowfall, but to my astonishment he had never seen it before. In fact, one night when we were watching the movie “Harry Potter”, he saw a scene where it was snowing and he raced up to the DVD player and paused it, observing the snowy picture. He then looked at me and asked, “Is that snow?”

So, you can imagine when we had our first snowfall on December 13th, 2008 John was quite excited. I still jump up and down like an 8 year old boy when it snows, but John’s reaction was different. He just stood outside with his T-shirt on and watched the snowflakes fall. When they would hit his bare arm he’d watch them, amazed at their magical dissolving power. Among many other things John has taught me to appreciate while he’s stayed with us, that moment made me appreciate snow a little bit more.

Here’s a hilarious picture of him sledding down the hill in our backyard this past December. He was taking one of our dogs for a ride, but she bailed out early:

Since then I have asked him what his impression of Washington weather is and he absolutely loves it. He told me,

“I really love the snow. It doesn’t rain as much here as it does in Tanzania, but I like the clouds and rain.” Despite the string of abnormally long snow days this winter, it has been a relatively dry season so I suppose I can’t blame John for thinking it is drier here than it really is. But then again, he lives at the base of Mount Kilimanjaro and it averages 40.4” of rain a year—10 inches more than Seattle.

Tanzania’s climate is quite warm also. Winter time (May-August), high temperatures run in the mid to upper 70s where summer time is a bit warmer with highs running in the 80s to low 90s—a bit too warm for me (I’m “cold blooded” which is why I love it here!)

John leaves us in June and so far the visit has been pleasant and I am excited about the connections I now have to southeast Africa! I’ll have to take a trip there sometime (after I take a trip to Mount Rainier! )

John is on the Central Kitsap Boys Varsity soccer team and they are playing Lincoln High School this evening so I have to get going, but I will talk about our weather in greater detail tomorrow as well as the “Long Range Thoughts”. Let me just say that winter MAY not be done if we are to believe the latest forecast models as snow levels look to plunge Monday-Wednesday. I’ll wait one more day before I say anything more. For now, refer to the 7 Day Forecast.

Have a great evening and stay dry! There was a lot more rain than expected today, but the weekend doesn’t look too bad

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

7 DAY FORECAST

Ok, I’ll stop messing around. The above forecast is the next 7 days for Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. OUR weather forecast is below…

7 DAY FORECAST (For Kitsap County!)

As you can see on the right hand corner, this photo was taken from earthshots.org which is a fantastic website to find nature photos. This afternoon I was looking for a spring photo, in particular spring at Mt. Rainier.

I absolutely love Mt. Rainier and hope to go sometime soon (that’s right! I’ve never been to the mountain, or even the national park. Actually I haven’t been in the Space Needle OR Canada either, so I suppose I can’t say I’m a true Washingtonian until I’ve done those things. Just when I thought being born in Seattle and living here my whole life qualified me as a Washingtonian!). I’ve heard that spring is the best time to go to Mount Rainier National Park as it is the most colorful and peaceful. Hmmm…maybe I’ll make a visit

This winter has been exceptionally active as most of you know: snowstorms, cold blasts, warm temperatures, dry streaks and flooding. You would think this season would end with a bang (well…maybe it did with last weeks dumping of snow?) but it appears spring will come in like a soft, harmless little lamb. And the good news is it doesn’t look like we’ll have to butcher that lamb any time too soon as no big storms are forecasted to hit us…at least within the next 7 days.

Light showers will fall tonight, but overall it’ll be mostly cloudy with overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, which is actually normal!

Tomorrow will be classic: partly to mostly cloudy with periods of rain. Showers and sunbreaks rule the weekend with highs in the upper 40s before more clouds and showers move in for early next week.

In my video yesterday I had partly sunny skies pegged for Tuesday and Wednesday, but models have been horrendously inconsistent on exactly how moist or dry it’ll be next week. The best thing to do is to stay tuned!

Have a fantastic evening! I’ll go plan my spring trip to Mount Rainier now…

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

7 DAY FORECAST

It’s been a while since I’ve produced a video forecast for this blog!

There’s one little clarification I’d like to make right now that I didn’t make in the video: in the first picture with the 2 week temperature records at SeaTac, the red line indicates the average high temperature (which obviously keeps going up as the days progress) and the blue line indicates the average low temperature.

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

At Central Kitsap High School (actually at many high schools nationwide) there’s a club called “Knowledge Bowl” where typically the smartest kids in school form teams and battle in a Jeopardy style competition. The video will explain itself, but last year for one of my weather broadcasts I decided to try my hand at the Knowledge Bowl competition and quickly discovered it wasn’t quite my thing…

And here’s a fun fact: I have never been back…I wanted to leave on a good note

Now on to the forecast which has a bit of sloppy snow in it. The radar has been acting up today causing for periods of heavy rain, wet snow (yes, I saw a bit of wet snow this morning), breezy coniditons and sunny breaks. Tonight will feature the same variability: breezy, mostly cloudy and chilly. Note that heavier showers can momentarily bring the snow level down, so if you see snowflakes flying around tonight don’t be surprised! In fact, the higher elevations might even manage a bit of slushy accumulation. Lows will be in the 30s.

Tomorrow will be another brilliant spring day: clouds, sunbreaks, rain showers potentially mixing with hail or snow and breezy coniditons. Highs will be cooler than normal in the mid to upper 40s. Don’t you just love spring? That was a serious question, actually. I tend to love spring days because there’s normally not too much of the same thing!

More of a cloudy and rainy pattern returns for Wednesday through Friday (Friday is the first day of spring, by the way. Spring begins at 4:44 AM Friday morning) before another chilly storm moves in over the weekend, dropping snow levels dangerously low accompanied by several showers. Yes, we could indeed see some more wet snow showers. I won’t even go into snow accumulation possibilities yet…

Though spring begins Friday, it won’t feel or look like it!

Have a great evening!

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

7 DAY FORECAST

**A WIND ADVISORY is still in effect for areas Tacoma northward and along the Hood Canal until 11 PM tonight. Click here for more information**

Do you have any cool weather pictures? If so, send them to: forecastingkitsap@live.com and I will host them in my evening blog tomorrow.

The three photos above were shot within a few hours of each other: 3” of heavy snow, clearing to warm sunshine, then vicious winds causing the power to flicker and branches to fly (or I guess in the picture’s case the flag!). This is “March Madness” at it’s best!

Here are some accumulations around the area:

Crosby: 6”

Port Orchard: 5”

East Bremerton: 4”

Silverdale: 4”

Bainbridge Island: 3”

Downtown Bremerton: 3”

Even places near the water got a couple inches of wet, sloppy snow before the sun came out and melted most of it away in a flash. But now we have another weather event racing through the peninsula: winds. Already sustained winds of 30 mph with gusts of 40 mph are plaguing parts of the area. It has no doubt been an active weather day!

So let’s talk about the short term and long term as it is very clear when looking at the models that the active/cold weather will likely continue. First, short term. Though the winds are racing from the south, the temperatures are still dropping back into the 30s and with precip around and more predicted tomorrow morning we may see more flakes fall. If this evening’s model projections are saying the same thing and/or if the temperature keeps dropping as fast as it is now, I may need to put some wet snowflakes into tomorrow’s forecast…stay tuned.

Latest models suggest a heavy band of precip to expand over central Kitsap tomorrow afternoon which could drop a few snowflakes/hailstones into the cool, unstable atmosphere. Other than periods of spring-like variability tomorrow, we’ll see partial sunshine, cool temperatures, and breezy conditions. There is also the concern for a few snow showers to fall in the higher elevations of Kitsap County Monday night into Tuesday, but at this time it doesn’t appear to be a huge concern.

Steady rain moves back in on Wednesday before showers and sunbreaks take control again Thursday through Friday. Highs will be in the 40s to lower 50s which is below normal for this time of year. Our normal highs are actually close to the mid 50s by now. Today’s high? 42º.

Now let’s look at the long range. Next weekend has been looking colder and wetter these past few days and BEYOND that a series of cold, mountain snow-filled storm systems are projected to plow through our area. Does this mean more lowland snow as well? Too soon to talk about that now, but with the way things have already played out this month I wouldn’t be surprised.

Spring starts March 20th, but remember: the groundhog saw his shadow so we may be in for a cold, wet spring ahead.

Have a good evening,

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

P.S. I’ll post my “Weekly Entertainment” segment tomorrow

7 DAY FORECAST

**The WINTER STORM WARNING has ended**

**A WIND ADVISORY is in effect for areas Tacoma northward and along the Hood Canal. A strong storm is expected to barrel through the area this afternoon bringing strong winds that could gust as high as 50 mph. Click here for more information**

–UPDATED 12:00 PM

The snow is beginning to taper off and some areas are even reporting a rain/snow mix or plain ol’ rain now. Here are some accumulations:

Crosby: 6”

Port Orchard: 5”

East Bremerton: 4”

Silverdale: 4”

Bainbridge Island: 3”

Downtown Bremerton: 3”

These are all the reports I have so far…

Now let’s get ready for a new storm system that will affect the area this afternoon, bringing breezy/gusty winds to the area. However, latest model guidance suggests the storm system is spinning far enough north to spare us from the worst it. Still, it’ll be quite breezy and wet later today. More updates in a new post later this evening…

Be safe!

*****************************************************************************************************************

UPDATED 8:45 AM

So how many of you are seeing snow this morning? Weather spotters all across the peninsula are reporting accumulating snow on the sideways and roadways. There are even unofficial reports of as much as 3” in Crosby, Bremerton, Port Orchard and Olalla.

If it is snowing at your house it is likely because #1) the temperature at your place dropped into the low to mid 30s overnight under clearing skies and stayed at that temperature when the precip arrived and #2) heavier precip is moving into the area, diving down the snow level. So expect periods of snow this morning until about noon when warmer air floods the region. Accumulations, according to the latest snow models, are forecasting 3-6”, highest amounts out towards the hillier locations along the Canal. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued. Refer to the top of this page for more information concerning the warning.

Later this afternoon a large storm is expected to hit the area bringing strong winds, hence the wind advisory. Today will be a VERY active day in the weather department!

When does spring start? Oh yeah…March 20th. 5 more days!

Check back to this post for more updates…

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

7 DAY FORECAST

UPDATED 9:50 PM

The National Weather Service is yet again ignoring the latest model runs which are still advertising accumulations for the Hood Canal region. The map below is certainly not as widespread with the snow as the one from this afternoon, but the snow potential is still there (click the image to enlarge):

**UPDATE 5:00 PM–To find out how many record lows/highs were achieved during the cold blast earlier this week, scroll down below the 7 day forecast**

Well, I was able to find some downtime this afternoon so I decided to make a post because if I don’t do it now I’ll likely not be able to do one until tomorrow morning.

Light rain has moved back into the area and will stick around through a good part of tomorrow. Now here’s what’s really intriguing about tomorrow’s forecast: we have a big weather system pegged to hit just to our north late tomorrow morning which will allow some strong winds and heavy precipitation to spread across the area. However, most weather models have a very chilly pocket of air bottled up on the peninsula which could allow us to see a bit of accumulating snow for a few hours, most likely on the hills along the Hood Canal. Other Kitsap locations away from the canal could see an inch or two as well, but the closer to Seattle you are the better the chance for just a rain/snow mix with little if any accumulation.

But because we are dealing with a snow forecast in mid March, we have to consider a few things:

#1) it’s getting to the point where we’re in the middle of March and a forecast of 1-3” of snow is pretty…well, ridiculous, so not an incredible amount of stock should be put into forecast models that are showing snow accumulations.

#2) But then again, snow events CAN and DO happen, and this winter has already proved that it can snow, hail, or graupel any time it wants to and could very well pull something tomorrow. Remember…it snowed in late April last year.

#3) The National Weather Service issues an evening update at 9:00 pm or so and will hopefully give a bit more information regarding tomorrow’s snow potential. The 3:00 PM update this afternoon was pretty worthless as far as their thoughts on the Hood Canal snow possibility (can I say that?)

My thoughts on this event? It definitley looks cold enough for a rain/snow mix tomorrow, but I’m having a hard time seeing much in the way of accumulating snowfall for the majority of the peninsula given the track of the low pressure system headed to our north (a northerly track is typically a warmer one) and the current state of the temperatures (low to mid 40s).

Also, whatever snow does fall will likely turn to rain in the afternoon as a warmer, southerly wind kicks in.

Take a look at the snowfall total map for yourself (snowfall accumulation by 11 AM Sunday):

Please stay tuned to this blog post as I’ll make another update later this evening (9:00ish) to inform you of any changes to the forecast. Best thing to do is to be prepared either way. I know it’s frustrating to not know EXACTLY what’s going to happen, but technology is just not there yet.

Stay warm and safe!

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

7 DAY FORECAST

RECORD UPDATE BELOW!

I finally have all the information I need to update y’all on the cold blast we had this past week and if reveal if we broke any records. The answer? We sure did. Let’s start with Bremerton (remember: I use Bremerton as a record location only because they keep records there at the airport. I’m not choosing favorites here )

BREMERTON

March 8th, 2008: 45/21 BROKEN RECORD: Shattered the overnight record low of 27 degrees set in 1974.

March 9th, 2008: 42/28 BROKEN RECORD: Broke the old overnight record low of 30 degrees set in 1974.

March 10th, 2008: 39/28 BROKEN RECORD: Broke the old record lowest high temperature of 42 degrees set in 1971. The overnight record low was 24 degrees set in 1956, but we were a few degrees shy of that.

TOTAL RECORDS BROKEN: 3

Now let’s move on to Shelton:

SHELTON

March 8th, 2008: 43/29 (record low of 26 degrees set in 1974 not met)

March 9th, 2008: 43/26 TIED RECORD: Tied the overnight record low of 26 degrees set in 1951.

March 10th, 2008: 42/27 (record low of 20 degrees set in 1951 not met)

TOTAL RECORDS BROKEN: 0, but 1 record tied.

Note that some Kitsap locations were much colder than Bremerton/Shelton, so I don’t doubt that numerous records were broken all across the county. And then adding accumulating snow to the mix, this 3 day event was quite impressive for early March!

Just a couple days ago the weather pattern late this weekend into early next week was looking warm and drenching. Now it appears that warm and drenching rain will be more concentrated to our south, leaving us on the colder side of the jet stream. Uh-oh…does this mean more snow potential, Matt? Of course not!…OK, fine…snow has slipped back into the forecast.

First things first: tonight we’ll see increasing rain which will linger into tomorrow morning. We’ll then see a brief lull before another storm system barrels through the area from tomorrow late afternoon through Sunday morning. After a midday lull that ushers in some colder air into the region Sunday,  yet another storm pushes through the area, and THIS storm is the one to watch. Snowfall maps are indicating some snowfall accumulation across quite a bit of the Kitsap Peninsula with a greater chance for accumulations closer to the Hood Canal. Locations closer to Seattle (like say Bainbridge Island) will likely see a rain/snow mix. Highs will be in the mid 40s.

Again, please stay tuned as things are subject to change. I mean, for heavens sake things have changed 180º since two days ago, I’m not sure what to believe now! Be prepared and stay tuned to this blog!

After Sunday’s flirtation with snow, we turn mainly cool and showery with more sunbreaks and warmer weather for the end of the week.

I promised an in depth forecast on the long range models today, but I just have not had the time. I will likely post late tomorrow because some family friends are coming in from Missouri, so I’ll try to get a long range model update out Sunday evening.

Winter just won’t give up!

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

7 DAY FORECAST

4th snowiest in Spokane with 88.9”.

I know, I know, this is supposed to be a blog about Kitsap Peninsula weather, but my research on 2008-2009 weather stats for Bremerton is incomplete and I figured most of you would find this interesting anyway.

The National Weather Service released some interesting snow statistics yesterday and here is what they found:

TOP TEN SNOW YEARS AT SEA-TAC (OCTOBER 15 – APRIL 15)

SNOWFALL SNOW YEAR
67.5 1968-9
63.6 1949-50
27.4 1950-1
26.9 1971-2
24.2 1955-6
23.3 1953-4
22.9 1965-6
22.8 2008-9 (So Far)
21.4 1948-9
20.3 1985-6

This didn’t surprise me at all. It sure has been snowy this winter! I’ll have more information on OUR local cold snap very soon…

Now let’s move on to the forecast because we have some changes to talk about. I’ll give you a couple hints: less lowland precipitation and more mountain snow.

This certainly doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods yet, but the most recent weather models have really backed off on the amount of precipitation pegged for our area later this weekend into early next week. Pineapple Express systems are typically rare in March anyway, but they do occur, so I’ll keep a close eye on the models to see if they trend for the drier or wetter. Right now it just looks like a wet and cool period Sunday through Tuesday vs a warm and drenching Sunday through Tuesday.

Tomorrow will be the last completely dry day for a while as some rain, cooler temperatures and clouds look to overtake our area through the weekend. Again, nothing looks relentless, just obnoxious with periods of steady rain and breaks. Highs will be largely in the 50s tomorrow and 40s over the weekend.

Heavier rain arrives later Sunday through Tuesday, but if models continue their current trend we’ll be on the colder side of the jet stream which will cause for a cold rain and plenty mountain snow.

Long range trends? I’ll talk about that more in depth tomorrow, but it appears the wet and cool weather continues. Goody!

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

7 DAY FORECAST

I did my best to make the title of this blog post sound as pleasant as possible, but in reality what is in our future may not be very pleasant at all. In December we rode the Polar Express and in just a few days we could hop onto the Pineapple Express, and doing such a thing in March isn’t very common.

So what is a “Pineapple Express”? You may or may not have heard this term used in weather reports, but usually meteorologists use it to describe a tropical plume of heavy, warm moisture extending from the Hawaiian Islands to the Pacific Northwest. On the satellite it looks like one big firehose. In fact, I found an old picture illustrating a Pineapple Express well!

The above photo is actually a satellite picture of the Pineapple Express system we experienced in January, except back then we were shadowed from a lot of it. This time around the Kitsap Peninsula could be in on some of the heavier amounts. Oh goody!

Let’s talk about tonight and tomorrow first because it’ll be another cold one! Lows will dip well into the 20s with the clear skies we have right now and tomorrow will be another mostly sunny day with highs warmer in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Tomorrow may feature a bit more in the way of high clouds, but overall it’ll be pleasant.

More clouds come into the picture on Friday, but we should get a decent dose of sunshine with highs in the 50s once again.

Rain moves in for the weekend with plenty of cloud cover, but the rain won’t be relentless. Just periods of steady rain and even a few breaks every once in a while. A pretty typical March pattern.

And then we bring out the fruit salad with extra Pineapples for late Sunday night through early Wednesday as some warm, tropical moisture overtakes our region. If you are a skier or snowboarder, I suggest you hit the slopes this weekend because early next week looks quite treacherous as heavy, warm rains will affect the mountains too. Right now highs early next week in the lowlands look to be in the low to mid 50s, but there is the potential for those temperatures to be much warmer. For now I’ll be conservative. The mountains will likely see highs in the low to mid 40s with rain.

Because of the active weather ahead I haven’t exactly put much time into studying the long range but from the looks of it we do settle down with periods of showers and sunbreaks.

Hmmm…I’ll believe it when I see it

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

7 DAY FORECAST