Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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Maybe Not As Cold As We Thought?

March 30th, 2009 by Matthew Leach


 

We’ve seen a lot of abnormal cold this winter season, but in the grand scheme of things was it really THAT cold or are we just too darn sensitive? The NOAA has released the winter 2008-2009 temperature anomalies map which covers December-February.

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Looking at the colored legend below the US map, there was a clear dichotomy this winter between the north and south. But if you look closely at the little Kitsap Peninsula on the above map, you can make out a -1.0 to -1.5 temperature departure from normal. That’s actually pretty cold, but after going through a few arctic blasts this past season even I was fooled into thinking we were even colder than that.

I’m sure no one is complaining that we weren’t colder than the map shows, but for those who haven’t had enough of the cool weather, Mother Nature is all on top of it.

Today was a mostly cloudy day, and for those who are saying: “Hey, but I saw some sunbreaks this afternoon!” click here for my definition of what makes a partly sunny day and mostly cloudy day. Tomorrow will be partly sunny after some morning rain. The Olympic Rain Shadow will be our friend again and shield us from most of the precipitation. Highs will be near 50º—about 5 degrees below normal.

Wednesday will be a pretty wet, cold, and cloudy day with highs in the mid to upper 40s. But fear not! The sun returns Thursday afternoon through most of the weekend before rain showers move back in Sunday evening.

How are the mountains doing? Lovely. A lot of snow is on the menu right now with a Winter Storm Warning posted for the North Central Cascades. Lesser amounts are expected over the Olympics.

Have a great evening!

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

7 DAY FORECAST

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25 Responses to “Maybe Not As Cold As We Thought?”

  1. eric Says:

    How come the GFS is slower to update lately?

    Any more snow for us you think this April?

  2. Matthew Leach Says:

    The GFS is 1 hour slower because of daylight savings time. Now you will see updates at 10 pm, 4 am , 10 am and 4 pm. That makes it pretty frustrating to create forecasts, especially for the evening news shows. But oh well. What can we do…

    And about snow in April…I think we’re all done. If we were to see a bit of snow it would be brief and in the late night/early morning hours and then quickly melt away. I have a hard time imagining another April 2008 repeat. You never know though!

  3. eric Says:

    Damn then we could be done for a few years with El Nino coming up.

    About the GFS, thanks for the update there, but I have seen the ooz update very late or not at all what is up with that? Same goes for the other runs, in fact I saw a 06z run at noon before.

  4. Matthew Leach Says:

    Really? I have not had that much trouble, Eric. Have you been going to the IPS Meteostar site?

    Also, remember 2006-2007 was an El Niño year and we saw two arctic outbreaks and plenty of snow. They’re not always bad :)

  5. eric Says:

    Yes I have been using the link you sent me awhile ago on the old fourm.

    I am currently not going to school, it is spring break for me.

    Are you sure 2006-2007 was an EL Nino year? We were really warmer and drier and still got snow?

  6. Matthew Leach Says:

    Yes, 06-07 was an El Niño year. Not all El Niño’s are warm and dry just like not all La Niña’s are cold and wet.

    Have a good spring break!

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