Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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Dèjá Vu

February 28th, 2009 by Matthew Leach

Tomorrow starts a new month: March. And, for the past several years, March’s have been quite active, cold, and wet. Last March is a good example of one of the coldest March’s we have had in the past 10 years with temperatures running nearly 3 degrees below normal, conversley March 2005 was unseasonably mild with temperatures running a good 3 degrees above normal. What does March 2009 have in store? Well, many forecasters are predicting a colder and wetter than normal March, and by looking at the short and long term models, those forecasts may not be far off.

The title of this blog post is “Dèjá Vu” mainly because we could go through a very similar pattern to last week starting tonight through next weekend. Remember last weekend when SaturDAY was dry, but then the rain moved in SaturNIGHT into Sunday? Well, expect the same deal this go around. Today was generally dry, but that is going to change as a new round of rain is moving into the area. It started raining in Hoquiam at 3 PM and will continue to move into the Kitsap area by this evening.

Rain continues through tomorrow, though it won’t be relentless. Highs will be the biggest story as some forecast models are suggesting highs will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Because this storm system is bringing some warm, southerly air with it I almost expect highs will be quite a few degrees above the normal high of 51º.

Monday through Wednesday we play generally the same tune: times of clouds, sun, and rain with highs starting out in the 50s on Monday but ending in the 40s Wednesday. The atmosphere will be rather unstable and timing each individual system will be almost impossible, so be prepared for variable skies and weather conditions over the next few days.

And then there’s Thursday. This is where the Dèjá Vu thing comes into play again, because if things pan out the way predicted on the models, we could be in for a repeat of the Thursday snow. Some very chilly air is expected to seep into our area Wednesday night and with moisture around we could be in for some more lowland snow around the area. This is obviously not a slam dunk yet, but just know the potential is there.

Friday onward looks drier and a bit warmer.

One thing that I’ve noticed some meteorologists do is cancel winter after mid February. Some claim that winter weather ends in the Northwest after February 15th. But sometimes the windiest, rainiest and even coldest weather of the winter has occured in March.

Bottom line? Don’t put away the ice scrapers QUITE yet :)

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

7 DAY FORECAST

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