Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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So Will It Snow Or Not?

February 25th, 2009 by Matthew Leach

The answer to that question is always complicated, and this situation is no different.

Before any snow event, usually meteorologists discuss the possibilities in great detail with other meteorologists from the area to get more than one opinion. I am no different. I discussed this upcoming snow chance with fellow forecaster Mattias Keese of Bainbridge Island and he has included his forecast for the upcoming snow scenario:

I do not expect snow for most of Kitsap. North Kitsap could be an exception, but Central Kitsap/Bainbridge will not see sticking snow…my reasoning is… [we switch] to [northwest] flow and we are still shadowed and most of the precip is to our South. Kitsap is just the worst spot for snow in this situation.

This explains our situation well. Most of Kitsap will be shadowed, but a convergence zone could be generous in the late morning to drop a dusting to an inch of snow from North Kitsap as far south as Central Kitsap. One thing is certain: this is not looking like a big snow event by any means, and though tomorrow will serve as a reminder that winter is still here, it will also remind us it is loosing strength.

So, overall expect an icy commute tomorrow whether we have snow or not as lows will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s. As the day progresses we’ll see sunbreaks and periods of rain with some snowflakes mixed in, and in the heavier showers we could see some plain ol’ snow with minor accumulations. Highs will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s: about 10º below normal.

A cold night with scattered snow showers is in the forecast for Thursday night (no accumulation expected) and Friday looks partly sunny and dry. Highs will still be cold, however, in the low to mid 40s.

Saturday starts out great, but clouds and rain increase in the evening and stick around through early next week. Mid week next week, however, we should clear up a bit, but the showers will still be around.

Stay tuned for weather updates! After all, we live in the Kitsap micro climate!

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

7 DAY FORECAST

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19 Responses to “So Will It Snow Or Not?”

  1. Allie Says:

    The fact that we could be at school while its snowing again this year really saddens me :(

  2. eric Says:

    I see 1-2 inches in the bothell area for the NAM, but are the other models showing the same thing?

    I am waiting for the 00z run as well.

  3. Matthew Leach Says:

    Allie: same here :( This doesn’t look to be “our” event.

    Eric: Yes…I await the 00z run. In Bothell you may get an inch or so, but the northwest interior will be the biggest winners here. Without radar and model consistency, this storm is VERY difficult to predict…

  4. Mattias Keese Says:

    00zWRF has a very strong convergence zone tomorrow mmorning…only problem is it is over Tacoma. Gives them 3-4″ while we are high and dry here on Kitsap.

    We will likely see some flakes on parts of Kitsap, but I doubt we see accumulations, especially closer to the Olympics.

    The further East, South, or North you are from Central Kitsap the better your chance is for a little snow.

    If only the radar was not down, this forecast would not be quite as difficult.

  5. Matthew Leach Says:

    I have this wonderful feeling that we will have a sneak attack tomorrow. My feelings rarely lie! :)

  6. Mattias Keese Says:

    The feeling I have right now reminds me of the feeling I had on the night of December 17th. We were getting shadowed while everyone else was getting pounded when I went to sleep. I woke up to 29 degree snow and it snowed 4″ of dry snow.

    That will not happen again, but my feeling of jealousy is similar to what I felt that night!

    I am slightly intrigued by the CZ the 00zWRF sets up around Tacoma because if it could set up slightly further North, we could get in on it. Again, I doubt that happens though.

  7. eric Says:

    The NAM gives my area a well defined 2 inches under the 6 hr period and one more inch in the next period for the total am I reading this wrong and is this even feasible?

    I don`t see the conversion zone in Tacoma on that model.

  8. Mattias Keese Says:

    Eric: Are you looking at the Nation wide NAM, or the local mm5-NAM? The nationwide models are not nearly as accurate as the mm5 and WRF, especially for precipitation and they never see Convergence zones. Here is the mm5-NAM precip if this is not what you were looking at, shows the CZ in the South sound, but not as bullish with it as the WRF:
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_e_ww_pcp3+//72/3

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