Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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Splitting Hairs…Literally?!

February 22nd, 2009 by Matthew Leach

The weather has certainly been slow lately so I decided to post a video I recently came across. This is a hilarious commercial put out by the Weather Channel on YouTube. I think you’ll enjoy it, but hopefully none of you can relate to it!:

So remember…know first! :)

Speaking of splitting hairs, the split-flow pattern which has taken hold of our weather numerous times this winter is finally backing down and this week, as predicted, will be a more active week than the ones previous. The good news for some is the air at the surface will be chillier than it has been, but not cold enough for lowland snow.

So far, the Bremerton Airport has recorded 0.08” of rain in the gauge, whereas farther south near Shelton the rain gauge reads 0.21”. This is definitely a sign of things to come as the new week will feature more rain and clouds.

Tonight will be cloudy with rain off and on. Lows will be mild in the lower 40s. Rain spreads into the area in the early morning hours tomorrow, stops by mid morning and then returns for the afternoon. Highs will be in the lower 50s.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be very similar with partly sunny skies and periods of rain, mainly in the morning and evening. Highs will be in the lower 50s as well.

The clouds and rain return for Thursday and Friday before the sun comes back out for the weekend.

So, have a good week and remember to check the forecast before you go outside! :)

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

7 DAY FORECAST

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25 Responses to “Splitting Hairs…Literally?!”

  1. eric Says:

    The GFS is starting to confuse me too. I thought 525 was always snow temps like low 30`s, but the temps on the gfs do not resemble that.

    I see a blue line and a purple line, what do those imply?

  2. Mattias Keese Says:

    It all depends on whether we have onshore flow or offshore flow. With offshore flow and cold air to our East, we can get snow with upper air temps much warmer than if we have offshore flow. 525 heights are not good enough for snow here usually, but it depends on the pattern. A better thing to look for to determine snow/rain is 925mb temps. If it is below zero with precip, you have to watch for snow as a possibility:
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_x_slp+///3

    You can also look here for snow based on the GFS:
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_x_ww_snow24+///3

    You may already know these things, but if you don’t here you go!

  3. Matthew Leach Says:

    Good answer, Matt :)

    In Western Washington, usually 516 heights are snow makers here, but this late in the winter season it takes a serious push of cold air and heavy precip to pull sticking snow down to the surface.

  4. eric Says:

    Thanks for your replies.

    I am 427 feet up so I am not effected by the pacific as much? So 528 may work for me?

  5. Matthew Leach Says:

    Elevation certainly helps! You’re also closer to the East Puget Sound Lowlands, right? That also helps.

    528 is pretty borderline…especially now that we’re headed into March.

    Stay tuned though. I don’t think we’re done with winter JUST yet… ;)

    -Matt

  6. eric Says:

    I do not think we are done either, we had very few wind storms this year.

    Yep I am considered East Puget Sound Lowlands though I am in southern bothell.

    A day ago it gave me so much hope for a major snow storm and now its gone. On March 5th it had .65 and .57 on the same day, I was amazed it held in three different runs for a few days straight. From the GFS.

    I can talk about it now since its forever gone and I won`t jinx it.

    Also, we never ever have the 498 mark down here, do you ever see that happening in our lifetime?

  7. Mattias Keese Says:

    12z WRF does show scattered snow showers Wednesday night. Temps look cool enough for anyone with elevation, but precip looks very scattered and light. Looks like some areas could see some flakes, but I doubt we see much in the way of accumulations. Kitsap does not do well with NW flow and that is exactly what we will have. Without a convergence zone, we should be mostly if not entirely dry.

    Seattle AFD also mentions this possibility.

  8. Matthew Leach Says:

    Yeah, I’m going to watch that very carefully. I am very much expecting a late winter/spring 2008 repeat with continually low snow levels, very cool temperatures and wet weather.

    I doubt we’ll see any accumulations Wednesday night, but some sloppy wet snowflakes are certainly possible.

    More details tomorrow…

  9. eric Says:

    Damn we have a smart girl in this chat!

    It does show one inch for my area for the NAM model. However, the gfs changed completely. It was showing negatives and now too warm to snow.

  10. Matthew Leach Says:

    A smart girl? Who exactly are you referring to? haha

  11. eric Says:

    The other in this chat haha.

    Im glad shes not here to scream at me for saying “other”.

    Things are looking bleak for snow even at my elevation, the gfs took out all my hope again.

    Is the GFS the only model you look at for predictions?

  12. Matthew Leach Says:

    Mattias is actually a guy :)

    No, I don’t just look at the GFS. The NAM is another one, but I tend to put more stock in the GFS models. The ensembles are also good indicators of height anomalies over the area. Do you know how to access the other models/ensembles or would you like a link?

  13. eric Says:

    I need a link if possible, thanks Matt!

    LOL alright.

    Do we really need the verfiy comment thingy on the bottom?

  14. Allie Says:

    Wow matt leave it to you to find a video like that.
    Hopefully you aren’t that guy in like ten years :)

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