Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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Long Range Thoughts: What Do You Get When You Mix Blue and Green?

February 20th, 2009 by Matthew Leach

No, the answer is not turquoise, it’s mountain snow and lowland cold rain and snow.

The SCWBL’s (Sunny, Calm and Boring Weather Lovers) have been so spoiled lately with this split-flow pattern, bringing us sunshine, mild temperatures, and calm weather. But models have been insisting on a change to the weather pattern for quite some time, and they have been pretty consistent about it too. I guess this means the DCRSCWL’s (Dark, Cloudy, Rainy, Snowy, Cold Weather Lovers) will soon get their turn.

The above maps indicate the chances for above, near, or below normal temperatures and precipitation. The map on the left illustrates a 60% chance of below normal temperatures for our area, hence the dark blue color. The map on the right is calling for a 40-50% chance for above normal precipitation. This is good news and bad news. Good news? Mountain snow. Bad news? A potential late winter/early spring 2008 repeat where we saw cold weather and snow until the end of April.

In the short term, the next threat for precipitation is on Sunday as a front moves through late Saturday night and overtakes the area Sunday morning. It doesn’t look incredibly cold, however, as highs will still be in the upper 40s/lower 50s due to the warm air mass in place when the precip arrives.

A typical spring-like pattern will occur through most of next week: periods of rain, sunbreaks, and highs in the mid to upper 40s. This will definitley be a colder pattern than what we’ve experienced this past week as highs will be below normal.

Some even colder air moves into the area Thursday and Friday dropping high temperatures and snow levels much lower than they should be this time of year. Temperatures: Highs in the low to mid 40s, lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Snow levels: 700-1,000′, mainly in the late night/early morning hours. With these ingredients, we could see a mixture of rain and snow on some of the hills around Kitsap on Friday. I won’t go too much into specifics yet, but just be aware a colder pattern is setting up for the end of next week which could spell W-E-T, S-L-O-P-P-Y, and S-N-O-W.

Looking farther into la la land, some very cold and wet weather will continue to roll into the Pacific Northwest, making the Kitsap Peninsula susceptible to more of the white stuff…granted the long range models pan out as expected.

Stay tuned and have a great weekend!

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

7 DAY FORECAST

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19 Responses to “Long Range Thoughts: What Do You Get When You Mix Blue and Green?”

  1. Mattias Keese Says:

    I still think the split flow is not going away soon. This pattern just does not want to end and the long range models still show it. I definitely would not mention snow if it were me.

  2. eric Says:

    Hey Matt, first time posting a comment.

    I am having a hard time reading the European model, in fact its like math to me.

    I would mention snow because it has to happen at least one more time.

  3. Matthew Leach Says:

    Matt and Eric:

    This split-flow has been ridiculous, but there has been great consistency amongst all models (until just recently, of course) that the split will weaken and will allow colder, more unsettled weather into our area very soon. This thing can’t last forever!

    And remember, my mention of snow was not: “Accumulating, widespread snowstorm”. Even today’s models suggest overnight temps cold enough for a wet soppy mix of rain and wet snow at night late this next week, mainly on the hills around the area. I never said anything about sticking snow or even wet snow at/near sea level.

    And Eric, don’t worry about the Euro. I hardly look at it anyway. :)

    Thanks for your comments,

    Matt

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