Daily Archives: January 21, 2009

Weathermen Love To Use The “S” Word!

…I’m not talking about when the forecast goes wrong, I’m talking about the white stuff! Buckle your seat belts…

“Change” is an undeniably popular word these days and I guess it only makes sense that the weather is included in the definition. I talked a few days ago about the trends this fall and winter season have followed: extreme cold (December), extreme warmth (November), extreme rain (January) and extreme snow (December). Of course many want to know where we’re headed next and my answer is: come along for the ride, cause we may get extreme again!

Before we get to the massive change in the forecast, let’s take care of tonight through Friday night. Look for continued mostly cloudy skies accompanied by morning fog with high temperatures in the low to mid 40s and low temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Of course, some sunbreaks are in the forecast as well so that should help keep temperatures from remaining TOO cold.

Now on to this weekend. As expected, there are several scenarios that could come into play from Saturday through Sunday night that may make all the difference when talking about the longevity of some cold air and even a little bit of snow—yup, I said it.

**Some cold air bottled up in BC seeps into northern Washington Friday night and invades the main Kitsap area by Saturday night. This is the first step in bringing the “s” word back into the forecast. There are three scenarios**:

  • An area of low pressure forms just off the coast of Vancouver Island which could spell an inch or two of snow around the county—OR:
  • Some moisture spills into the area before the really cold air arrives, bringing only hills around Kitsap a chance at some wet snow (maybe accumulations of an inch or so) while lower elevations get a cold rain or a rain/snow mix—OR:
  • A convergence zone sets up shop, giving the northern Kitsap Peninsula the best shot at some accumulating snow.

Basically, stay tuned to this blog for more updates on this potential snow event as it may grow or shrink in size over the next couple of days. Overall, SaturDAY looks mostly cloudy and chilly with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. SaturNIGHT is when the snow potential comes into play. Lows SaturNIGHT will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s: again, this all depends on the amount of cold air we have to work with.

SunDAY—I mean, Sunday looks to be the coldest of the next 7 days as some of the cold air really settles in here. Highs will be in the low to mid 30s under mostly cloudy skies, and it looks like we may even see some light snow or rain during the afternoon, but models have been having a really tough time deciding how much moisture to give us. Just keep your eyes peeled!

The chance for a bit of light snow remains in the forecast for Sunday night, though the likelihood decreases because the precip decreases. Lows will be cold—mid 20s looks like a good bet right now.

Current models are saying we should warm into the upper 30s and lower 40s again for at least half of next week with even a partly sunny day advertised for Monday. By Wednesday, a batch of light precip moves into the area, but at this time it looks like temperatures may rise into the lower 40s by the time it arrives, so it looks to be just rain. Again, stay tuned. I expect that forecast to change…

The long range models have been toying with the idea of bringing back the cold air and snow potential later next week into the first week of February, so it appears that whatever warming we do get within the next 10 days or so will be short lived.

Stay tuned! A lot can change between now and the weekend.

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather