Forecasting Kitsap

Yesterday, I compared Cape Town weather with Kitsap weather and I think I’ll do a little more comparing today. Although I loved the coastal regions of South Africa where I served as a missionary, I wouldn’t recommend it to any storm chaser or weather fanatic. As my parents would tell me of all the great snow, wind or rain storms that would barrel into the west coast during the winter, I would cringe and try to not to think about the 110 degree weather I was experiencing outside.

Of course, one thing I suppose I took for granted in South Africa is the steadiness of the weather patterns. You could easily forecast out seven days and have 6/7 days spot on. The “cape” of Africa is termed the “cape” of storms, but such storms are easier to predict and when they blow through, you have to wait no more than a few hours before the storm rolls away.

Unfortunately, lately the weather models in our neck of the woods are shying away from a long range warm spell like it was teasing us with yesterday, but rest assured your Memorial Day weekend looks…dare I say it?…steady. I know many of your have been praying for a warm, dry weekend and, as long as you’re not too picky on what consitutues as warm, Friday and Saturday look remarkable! Highs both days will be near 70 with partly to mostly sunny skies. Thinking about mowing the lawn? These two days will be your best bet.

Sunday through Wednesday looks rather seasonable, just not impressive when compared to this weekend. Highs will dip slightly to the mid and upper 60s, but the most dramatic difference will be the increase in cloud cover and increasing chance of rain, especially on Wednesday of next week.

The longer range models are a bit disappointing to say the least. It appears we’ll be stuck in a rather cool and showery pattern for a while, which could mean a slighly delayed start to summer.

At least the weather pattern is getting steadier!

Have a great evening,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

I don’t know about you, but I felt cold the whole day today! Missionaries are accustomed to wearing white shirts, ties and black pants for two years, so you can understand that I was more than excited to get into some more comfortable clothes for the end of spring. But alas, I didn’t come to any different weather than I left half way around the world. Interestingly, the weather in Cape Town, South Africa is not too different than how we have it now: mid 60s, partly sunny and periods of rain and thunder. The biggest difference might be, however, the fact that they are heading into winter and we in summer.

Indeed, the summer solstice begins Wednesday, June 20th but it couldn’t feel farther from reality. Today’s high temperature was at 55°, although that number fluctuated only a degree or two depending where on the peninsula you were today. Bottom line is, it was unseasonably cold, even 10 degrees colder than normal. But I also heard that a week before I came home Bremerton’s high temperatures were flirting with, or even exceeding, the 80s! It seems the weather is acting a lot like my first time trying to drive a manual transmission…a lot of speeding up and then stalling and coming to a screeching halt.

The good news is, Mother Nature is getting a handle on the clutch as a large spring storm system has passed and the future looks much brighter in terms on sunbreaks and warmer temperatures. Tomorrow won’t be exactly the biggest breather day for everyone, however. The weather models show the southern half of Kitsap (say Bremerton southward) completely dry while northern Kitsap will still have straggling showers to battle through. Either way, for everyone it looks mostly cloudy and still unseasonably cool with highs in the upper 50s.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday is one progressive trend of sunnier, warmer and more seasonable weather. If you’re planning any outdoor activities, Friday and Saturday will be the best days to do it. Both days highs will be near 70 with partly to mostly sunny skies. Sunday a weak weather system slips by and looks to drop a few rain showers before leaving us high and dry again for the first few days of the new week next week. Highs still look normal, being in the mid 60s.

The long range models point to a “cruise control” mode as a ridge of high pressure builds in and provides us with warmer, sunnier days. By that time, we won’t even be able to tell if we’re sitting in a manual or automatic weather pattern

Have a great evening!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

Hello everyone! I’m back from my 2 year church mission to South Africa and Namibia and what a blessing it was to serve among such humble people. Of course, these two wonderful countries will forever be apart of my life and will be considered distant homes of my own. Within the next few months I’ll be doing a presentation of my experience which will include many great pictures and videos, although the venue and time is still to be decided. If you are interested in attending, please let me know at forecastingkitsap@live.com

Thanks to the Kitsap Sun I will resume tracking weather patterns around the Kitsap Peninsula and update all of you on the interesting storm systems that often crawl across the Pacific Ocean and throw curveballs in our everyday plans. I think this most recent weather pattern is a good example of that! I heard the past couple winters haven’t been too wild, but nevertheless I’m excited to see what we have in store this year.

I’ll update this blog later in the evening and give you a specific weekend forecast because I think it’ll be good news for all of us.

Have a marvelous day and week ahead!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap Blog

Well, Kitsap…I knew this day would come, but it has arrived way too fast!

I am leaving for South Africa on Wednesday and will not have the opportunity to run this weather blog while being on the other side of the world for 2 years. My parents have agreed to update a blog following my mission adventures, however. Because this is a “Staff Blog” and the blog about my mission is not affiliated with the Kitsap Sun, I won’t post the link here, but if you’re interested shoot me an e-mail at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

It isn’t all the way finished yet, so some of you who have already requested a link should be getting one in the next day or two.

I have had so much fun tracking the storms and heatwaves that have graced our region with all of you. Sometimes I have found myself very successful and proud of the forecasting I’ve done, and other time I have hung my head in shame But you know what? That’s the life of a weatherman. I only hope to get better from here!

My dream career is to become a Television Meteorologist. When I come back from my mission and go to school, I’d like to continue blogging about Kitsap weather while at the same time getting my broadcasting degree.

Thanks to my supportive parents, Angela Dice (web editor at the Kitsap Sun), Scott Sistek (KOMO-TV Weather Producer who has been my mentor for several years) and all of you who have followed me through this 1 1/2 year string of predictions, videos and amazing weather pictures. I’ll see you all in 2 years!!!

Sincerely,

Matthew Leach

Harry Wappler was one of my favorite on-air meteorologists. Definitely someone an aspiring weatherman would look up to. My condolences to the Wappler and KIRO News families.

(Copied from the AP)

SEATTLE – Longtime former KIRO-TV meteorologist Harry Wappler has died.

KIRO-TV reports that Wappler, 73, who worked at the station for 33 years, died Wednesday at Overlake Hospital.

Wappler joined the television station in 1969. He was the face of weather coverage there until he retired in 2002.

He graduated from Northwestern University and earned a graduate degree at Yale Divinity School. Wappler was also an ordained Episcopal priest.

“Harry was just a remarkably wonderful person,” said KOMO Weathercaster Steve Pool. “I don’t think that man had a mean bone in his body. He was so supportive of me when I just started. Even though we were across the street, we were kindred that we did the same thing and were both supportive of each other. He will be missed.”

After his retirement in 2002, his son Andy took over as Chief Meteorologist at KIRO until 2008.

**I don’t leave for another two weeks, but I will have a blog about my 2 year mission trip to South Africa and Namibia, full of pictures, videos and stories, so if you are interested in my adventures there, e-mail me and I’ll give you the link!**

Hello, bloggers! It’s been a while. I’ve been busily preparing for my mission to South Africa and have been sick a few days in between, so time hasn’t necessarily been as free as I would like it to be. But, I’m glad I’ve been able to find some time to fill you in on not only the short term, but long term weather, which includes SUMMER!

SHORT TERM

Ok, so what gives? Yesterday was, in my opinion, perfection. Bremerton Airport recorded a very comfortable 68 degrees under partly sunny skies  with a slight breeze. Funny thing is, 65 degrees is about the average winter high temperature in Cape Town! Yeah I’ll miss the snow, but I’m going to be doing a lot of walking and biking, so 60′s every day in the winter is OK with me

Today we’ve slammed on the breaks and introduced some drizzle and cloudy skies, but we’ll clear up a little later on and nice, kinda-warm weather will return tomorrow. The rest of the week will be showery with highs near 60 every day.

LONG TERM

Ready for summer? My favorite long term weather guru, Brett Anderson of AccuWeather, has given his model interpretation on what we should be looking out for this summer season. Here’s what I got from his outlook:

Near normal temperatures and precipitation on the West Coast in May and June, dry and warm in July, though model details are a lot less clear for the West coast during this month for whatever reason, a normally warm and dry August and a wetter, slightly cooler than normal September.

Not bad news at all! It’s looking like a pretty normal summer season is headed our way, though I’d keep my eye on July. Model details are unclear so that means we may have another shot at some more heat records falling?

Have a great weekend!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

P.S. Figured I might as well mention this too: sadly, I am selling my beloved 2001 Ford Mustang because I don’t want it sitting in the driveway for 2 years being unused. If you are interested in a smokin’ hot ride…let me know!

This is a very brief blog post from me. I’ve been busier than ever preparing for my mission trip in less than a month, so I’ve been pretty preoccupied. Regardless, you need to know of up-to-the-minute severe weather updates so I must learn how to juggle the two! I haven’t had a lot of time to do research on the latest in a series of storms pegged for Thursday, so until I do, I think the National Weather Service’s SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT will do for now

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 403 PM PDT TUE APR 6 2010 

 …STRONG LOWLAND WINDS AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY…

ANOTHER VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOL AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY OCCUR THOUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND ADMIRALTY INLET AREA AS A STRONG WESTERLY SURGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE STRAIT. IN ADDITION…THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING DOWN TO PASS LEVELS. HEAVY SNOW IN THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING…MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CASCADES.

STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.

Updated 12:00 PM

The National Weather Service has issued a statement of concern with this developing windstorm. It appears it has taken an abrupt southerly track, which could result in damaging winds to the area (up to 60 mph):

Says the Seattle NWS:  ”THE CONCERN IS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH EWD MOMENTUM TO FUNNEL THESE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP…REACHING INTO THE PUGET SOUND REGION AS THE BENT BACK LIFTS THROUGH. THIS SCENARIO COULD GIVE A SHORT 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF HIGH WIND IN THE PUGET SOUND REGION.

Astoria is reporting gusts up to 40 MPH at this moment, which means winds should filter through the Chehalis Gap shortly and stir things up in the Puget Sound area over the next couple hours.

Updated: 9:30 AM

The Leach Family got back from Wyoming last night just in time for another potent spring storm that seemed to develop out of nowhere…especially the wet snowflakes that are falling outside my window right now.

So let’s address that first. We had just enough cold air trapped last night to produce some mixed rain and snow showers this morning as heavier precipitation moves through ahead of the main front. Some folks in Seabeck have reported an inch and half of snow on the ground, while others, like folks in Tracyton, are reporting rain. At my house in Silverdale, it’s snowing heavily with a trace on the grass and bark.

The mixed precip and snow will end later this morning as southerly winds kick up and the big storm arrives. Historically speaking, this could be the strongest late-season storm since March 30th, 1997 when a windy system struck the area and killed 2 people. The National Weather Service has issued a HIGH WIND WARNING for the Hood Canal area with winds gusting as high as 60 mph and a WIND ADVISORY for the greater Seattle area until 6 PM for the main Puget Sound area, meaning sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts between 45 and 55 mph.

The heaviest rain will occur this morning, sharing the spotlight with the snow, turning to lighter rain as the day wears on.

The forecast for the rest of the week? Mostly cloudy, chilly, and wet with mountain snow continuing. Wednesday of next week is shaping up to be warmer and drier with each model run, so we’ll see what happens with that. I think many of us wouldn’t mind a break!

Be safe and stay warm during the storm!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

I always love the semi-annual trip to Lovell, WY where my grandparents have lived for over 50 years. In fact, they currently live in a house right next door to the one my mom grew up in! And add the fact that I have lived in Silverdale my whole life, and you can safely assume our family finds a good place to live and stays put.

That will be a good and bad thing in the years to come for me—good because I have grown to love the Northwest in such a unique way as well as build relationships few people growing up get to have the opportunity to do, but when I head off to Cape Town, South Africa next month I will be in for a real shocker. Talk about taking a huge leap out of my comfort zone!

Anyway, while on this trip I have been able to take a couple cool cloud photos that I find are unique to the wide open West. Take a look:

Have fun in the thunderstorms tomorrow! Watch out for the pea-sized hail, gusty winds and downpours you lucky sons of guns. I’m going out four-wheelin’ tomorrow with grandpa and the fam, so I’ll be sure to catch some more cool pictures!

Stay classy, Kitsap,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Cool weather pix? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

PHOTO COURTESY OF: AccuWeather

Naturally one of the strongest winter (or spring now?) storms of the season strikes the Northwest, and I’m in Montana/Wyoming visiting my grandparents looking at gray skies and a soggy ground. Not great timing. But that’s OK I suppose. A little bit of snow is forecasted while I’m here

So how long will this stormy period last? A while, unfortunately. Climatology (and long range data) suggests a colder, stormier April than usual with the significantly warm episodes like last Wednesday much less frequent. El Nino springs typically end up being chilly and wet, and this will also help in last minute snow pack build up.

I know…I’m kinda disappointed too. In the mean time, get ready for unstable conditions today with some thundershowers/heavy downpours occurring throughout the afternoon. The rest of the week will feature the familiar cloudy skies and periods of heavy rain.

Hold on to your umbrellas, Kitsapers! Summer will be here before ya know it

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com