Forecasting Kitsap

It’s been a busy weekend, with the Armed Forces Day Parade and Viking Fest going on among other things. The weather hasn’t been the most ideal, but it hasn’t been awful either. I think we got spoiled after our early May temperatures flirted with 90 degrees!

But such heat will be forcibly shoved in the back of our minds as a series of unseasonably cold weather systems march on through Western Washington, which will ultimately lead to some snow at the passes. More on that in a moment.

For now, expect mostly cloudy skies to continue through your Saturday. High temperatures will stay somewhere in the mid 50s, dropping off to the low and mid 40s overnight with only scattered showers around.

Sunday is turning out to be partly sunny with only a few early showers. Highs will be about 10 degrees warmer, rising to the mid 60s.

Although Monday appears partly sunny, dry, and mild with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s, we’re in for a big change starting Tuesday. Here’s a little visual explaining what is happening out there in the Pacific:

As you can see, the jet stream will be sagging far enough south to tap us in to cooler air from the north. This also translates to more showers and greater instability, which could produce a few thundershowers by midweek.

So, expect high temperatures to dip into the low to mid 50s on Tuesday and Wednesday with showers, a few sunbreaks, and a slight chance for some electrical activity. Of course, thundershowers are never an absolute around here, but we are entering that time of year when it becomes a very real possibility.

The mountain passes will also be getting in on the action, with periods of SNOW in the forecast for locations above 4,000 feet. It’s too early to tell how much snow will accumulate, but right now it doesn’t look like traffic over the passes Tuesday through Thursday of next week will be inhibited.

We rebound ever slightly for the end of next week, but if you’re looking for more 70 or 80 degree temperatures with sunshine, the rest of this month doesn’t look too promising. June is usually good to us in that department though

Have a great weekend!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

There’s something tremendously exciting about breaking weather records, especially when it has to do with temperatures. Think about it: At no other time in recorded history has the temperature been as hot in early May was it was over this past weekend. And this is really saying something, since Seattle has records that go as far back as the 1800s.

I’m sure you must have heard Seattle and Phoenix tied for the hottest major U.S. cities Monday, with a high temperature of 87 degrees. Even so, there was at least one point Monday evening when Seattle was actually the hottest city in the country!

For those of you who have felt slightly uncomfortable with all the heat, Mother Nature has heard your complaints. In fact, taking a look at the long range forecast, it might be a while before we experience such summery heat again.

In the meantime, we have some showery weather on our doorsteps that could quickly diminish any memory of our heat streak. In the short term, we’ll see a common theme of morning clouds, afternoon sunshine and temperatures remaining pretty solidly in the 70s.

That is, until this coming weekend. A series of small systems will bring periods of rain and cooler temperatures, most notably on Sunday. High temperatures will cool into the mid to upper 60s, which is still slightly above our average high temperature for this time of year.

I’m sure many of us wouldn’t complain too much, though. We’re not used to prolonged periods of hot weather. Rain is more in our comfort zone

Have a great day!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

Happy first day of May, everyone!

You would never have guessed it was May just by looking outside, however, as temperatures fell into the upper 20s and lower 30s across the Kitsap Peninsula. And I’ll admit it, I was pretty ticked about having to scrape my windshield so late in the spring. Frosts in April are not unusual, but frosts in May are practically unheard of!

Are you ready for a little more in the way of extremes? I’ve been tracking forecast models that indicate we could get unseasonably warm by this weekend. So warm, in fact, that we will likely experience the warmest start to May in at least 15 years.

15 years!

Then again, this time of year we don’t have access to a whole lot of “oomph” in the heat department, so we have to make do with what little heat we get. Still, though, I’m sure many of you would consider temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s “oomph” enough.

Let me show you what I’m talking about:

This is a snapshot of Sunday evening at 5 pm. Temperatures are very similar for Saturday as well. As you can see, the pink colors indicate temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, but the lighter pink into white colors suggest temperatures in the 80s. Indeed, some Kitsap locations, although not all, have a decent shot at reaching 80 degrees or above over the weekend.

This is enhanced by what is called “offshore flow,” which brings in the warmer air from over the Cascades from Eastern Washington into our neck of the woods. This same flow brings us the cold eastern air in the winter.

Wednesday through Friday we’ll slowly warm from the upper 60s to mid 70s, with warmer weather over the weekend, only cooling off slightly into early next week.

The long range forecast indicates we’ll continue to have bouts with warm weather, but nothing this extreme looks likely in the near future

Enjoy the warmth and start planning those weekend activities!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

We don’t have to dig too far in our long term memory to remember Easter weekend’s fantastic string of weather. Sunny weather and highs in the mid to upper 60s graced the region from the 29th to the 31st of March, with some areas reaching 70.

But for some of us, just barely hitting 70 degrees isn’t good enough. So why don’t we crank it up a notch?

First of all, a growing ridge of high pressure is building over the west coast, resulting in warmer weather and drier conditions over the next 6-10 days. In fact, there’s about a 50% chance of having warmer than average temperatures by this time next week. But the fun doesn’t end there. The 2 week projections look the same:

Indeed, it appears we may run through the rest of April with above normal temperatures. But just how much above normal could we get?

It’s not wise to take forecasting models too seriously, as they are prone to change quickly, but this time of year dramatic changes in a weeks time isn’t as common as it is in the winter. I think it’s fair to forecast, with relative certainty, two things:

• In about 7 days, we’ll be seeing a lot more 70s popping up around the area under sunny skies
• This string of 70 degree weather will likely last for a total of about 7 days before cooling off slightly to the upper 50s to mid 60s into early May.

This is the mid spring pattern Western Washington is famous for. It’s the kind of weather we call “perfect”. In the short term, we still have several cool-ish weather systems to trudge through, but it looks like once we get past the muck for a week, we’ll be on our way to near-perfection.

Until then, stay warm and dry out there!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

Although our little corner of the world has enjoyed nothing but sunny skies and unseasonably mild temperatures lately, many areas across our marvelous country can’t quite say the same.

In fact, according to a news release from AccuWeather.com, as of March 25th, nearly 50% of the nation was still covered in snow, which is a dramatic increase compared to this time last year:

It has no doubt been a stormy and somewhat snowy winter across much of the U.S., but not everyone expected it to turn out that way. I’m sure many of you remember the “El Nino scare of 2012,” when many of us (or maybe just me?) started to worry we wouldn’t have a lot of snow and would therefore be subject to drought conditions come summer time.

But the mountain snow pack report as of March 1st reveals there’s actually very little to worry about:

It also appears the water supply is right on track:

Then again, we also had a very different winter than most of Western Washington. Kitsap County experienced an anomalously snowy first half of winter, with some areas such as Seabeck and Cushman receiving as much as 30 inches of snow in December.

So disregarding our rather lame end to winter, it was a wet, snowy season over much of the country. And I guess at the end of the day, snow fell where it really mattered: In the mountains.

Have a great day,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

It’s definitely hard to choose a favorite season, so I’m going to choose two.

Spring and fall. Why these two? Glad you asked!

In the spring, we anxiously await our first 60 degree reading, our first 70 degree reading, and perhaps even our first 80 degree reading. We look forward in anticipation to our first hailstorm, our first thunderstorm, and last windstorm.

In the fall, we get all giddy to experience our first day with highs in the 40s, our first frost, and our first windstorm. Our throats run dry as we obsess over when our first snow might be, when news stations will start throwing out the “Arctic Blast [Insert Year Here]” logo, and when schools might shut down for the first time of the season under an inch of sloppy, wet snow.

Or maybe it’s just me.

Either way, I have some great news for those who still haven’t thawed over the past few months. Increasing high pressure, as well as an early-season influence of offshore flow, will provide our region with its first real warm spell of 2013. The details are definitely fuzzy, and some forecasting models have been overly dramatic to put it lightly, but it looks like we may get a little taste of late May/early June weather for this last weekend in March.

Just like when you turn on the kitchen stove, it takes a little while to heat up. So expect partly to mostly cloudy skies for your Thursday with just a few light showers. Friday will clear up and warm up with partly sunny skies and highs in the low 60s.

Of course, our little stove doesn’t run on much power because we’re only in late March, but things will be noticeably more comfortable as we head into Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Skies will get progressively clearer, temperatures will get progressively warmer, and the citizens of Kitsap County will progressively emerge from their homes at bask in the early spring rays.

High temperatures this coming weekend will be in the mid to maybe even upper 60s. Are we looking at 70 degrees yet? I’m not willing to put such a large number on the 7 day forecast graphic just yet, but let’s just say it wouldn’t surprise me to see some 70s floating around the peninsula on Saturday or Sunday.

And wouldn’t you know it, cooler, but still mild weather persists into next week.

I don’t know what we’re doing to find so much favor in Mother Nature’s eyes, but whatever it is, we’re doing it right

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? Send them to me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

Photo by: Larry Steagall, November 2012 (Olympic College, Bremerton)

Let’s just start off by saying I have no idea why I gave into temptation and turned this blog title into an alliteration, but I hope you enjoyed it nonetheless

And I also hope you understand this storm system will be a whole lot more inclusive than just targeting Silverdale, as fun a forecast as that would be.

Did you remember Wednesday is the first day of spring? Well, I’m not sure it would make any difference if you remembered or not, because it sure as heck won’t feel like it. In fact, 24 hour rainfall totals indicate quite the deluge of rain by Wednesday evening. See for yourself!

That’s a little over an inch of rain for a good chunk of the peninsula. Also, add a good 15-25 mph breeze throughout the day, and we’ve got our selves a special spring storm! We’ll continue to struggle in the temperature department, with highs barely reaching 50.

Showery and cool weather continues through the work week with sunbreaks finally showing up in greater abundance as we approach the weekend.

Have a fantastic day out there! Oh yes, and if you have any stunning scenes specially snapped from your snazzy cameras, I’d love to see them and post them on the blog My e-mail is: forecastingkitsap@live.com

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

The long-anticipated, long range forecast is here!

There are only so many ways to describe a rainy forecast, so you can imagine my excitement upon finding the long range predictions for the next 6-10 days look increasingly drier and cooler.

Then again, what does “drier” and “cooler” look like? Knowing March’s typical trends around here, it probably means cloudy skies, light rain and highs in the mid to upper 40s. But is that really good news?

In my weather discussion on the Kitsap Sun homepage today, I discussed how we are actually running a few inches behind in the precipitation department. We’ve only managed 7 inches of rain since January 1st, whereas we should be closer to 12. In fact, it appears we may actually make it three months in a row with below normal precipitation, according to the 8-14 day forecast:

So maybe not the worst news for those anticipating a break from the rain, but history shows Washingtonians get a little anxious after two weeks of below normal rainfall, let alone three months

Have a wonderful day,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

Hello, all! You have likely noticed this blog has been the quietest since I left for my two year mission to South Africa. There are a couple reasons for this and I wanted to take a moment and explain some of the changes that have occurred over the past couple weeks:

1. I want to make my forecasts more easily accessible and have therefore decided to spend most of my time preparing daily weather updates which can be found every weekday morning on the Kitsap Sun homepage. The Sun will also host links to their Facebook page.
2. This blog will not be updated as frequently as before as most of my time will be spent providing daily weather forecasts. However, expect weather updates, with accompanying graphics, one to two times a week on this blog and on my Kitsap Weather Facebook page.
3. As always during moments of extreme weather, I will update this blog as frequently as needs be.

I hope you will find this new format more efficient and satisfying your daily weather needs. I’ve promised a long range outlook for a while, so look for one tomorrow!

Have a great day,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

Several of my friends and relatives admit February is their favorite winter month. And why not? It is the proverbial “light at the end of the tunnel” after our dark, dank winter days unofficially beginning in November.

But not this February.

No, this February lived up to her sister months by providing us several cold, wet days followed by some sparkly rays of sunshine. Not to sound too pessimistic, but these rays of sunshine really only lasted long enough to reflect off the wet roadways and near-blind our already cautious Washington drivers.

So what was the deal with February? Are you ready for some statistics? Here’s a temperature graph of our short 28-day month:

Any guesses as to how we averaged out? Here’s the raw data:

Average high temperature: 45.0

Actual high temperature: 45.6 (0.6° above normal)

Average low temperature: 31.7

Actual low temperature: 33.7 (2° above normal)

Average overall temperature: 38.3

Actual overall temperature: 39.6 (1.3° above normal)

Although we managed several wet days, most of the days we perceived as being “drippy” were actually just cloudy. As sad as it sounds, only 4 out of 28 days this past month were NOT recorded as cloudy. Despite that glaring statistic, we only managed a paltry 2.80” of rain for the whole month, a good 3.42” below our average 6.22”.

But every bit of that 2.80” of rain counts! Who could forget winter storms “Rambo”, “Batman”, and “Sherlock”? Or how about our first legitimate windstorm of 2013? When all was said and done, February was a welcome break from all the fog and stale weather January gave us. It still wasn’t nearly as active as you’d expect a “neutral year” to be

So let’s sit back and see what March can do. Stay tuned to this blog and the Kitsap Sun homepage for daily weather information.

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com