Forecasting Kitsap

This has certainly been an eventful weather month so far. We were seeing snowflakes flying earlier last week, record cold low temperatures, highs in the low to mid 60s on Monday and pouring rain/strong winds yesterday (60 mph gusts were reported at the Hood Canal bridge!).

Oh, and let’s not forget the hail! A Forecasting Kitsap reader, Steve from the Issaquah Highlands, e-mailed me this photo:

Now choose your favorite weather event from those listed above. Did you pick “sunny and temperatures in the low to mid 60s”? Because if you did, that’s what we have next on the menu as far as dramatic weather goes. And wouldn’t you know it…Saturday is the first official day of spring! How appropriate!

Naturally, the clouds and showers come back later in the weekend through most of next week, so get out and do something productive this weekend!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Cool weather photos? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

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I have mixed feelings about Daylight Savings (I realize technically there’s no “s” at the end of “Savings”, but I think it sounds better ), and I always ask myself: what is the point? After doing a bit of research, it certainly appears many others ask the same thing. Its benefits?

• More time for outdoor activities
• Saves electricity as light extends well into the evening hours
• Some studies have shown crime rates are lower during Daylight Savings

Its drawbacks?

• The complexity of it all, including remembering to set the clocks back and forward
• We lose an hour of sleep. I mean let’s be real here: it still gets darker earlier in the winter and later in the summer no matter what, so why mess with the clocks?
• Just when it started to get brighter earlier, now it’s going to get dark again
• It’s not mandatory, so not everybody observes it! Take a look at this DST map (blue indicates DST is observed, orange indicates DST is no longer observed, and red indicates DST was never used)

As you can see, Arizona and Hawaii are the onl states in the U.S. that have found DST rather useless. About 95% of Africa isn’t on DST, including my new home (for 2 years) South Africa. A great deal of North America and Europe, however, have found DST worthy of continuing.

So, don’t forget to spring your clocks forward! But I’d like to know: what are your thoughts on Daylight Savings? Is it worth it? Are Arizona and Hawaii doing the right thing by not messing with the clock? You decide.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

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9:00 PM, 36 degrees and steady

So far no reports of snow anywhere on the peninsula. The trend this evening has been this: whenever precip acts like it’s going to get heavier, it diminishes and we’re left with light rain. Until the heavy stuff arrives to yank the temperature down, wet roadways will be the theme tonight. I have a feeling we could get burned again with this snow threat, but all the ingredients look pretty favorable right now.

I mean for heaven’s sake, if we can manage snow during the day yesterday when it’s 40 degrees, how hard is it to snow at night when it’s 36?

6:00 PM, 40 degrees and dropping (Silverdale…Forecasting Kitsap Headquarters )

Ahem…it’s about time, winter.

I’ll be posting just the advisory as of 6:00 PM, but will update throughout the evening.

Indeed, the National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the Hood Canal area, though it should be noted not all of Kitsap County is included in this. Cold air typically pools SE of the Olympics and this makes the Shelton, Hoodsport, Brinnon areas the most likely candidates for a wintry scene. We could even toss any town along the Hood Canal, like Seabeck, in the mix. The Bremerton/Silverdale/Poulsbo areas will be on the fringe. It really all depends on elevation.

I expect accumualting snow of 1-3” the closer you are to the Hood Canal, a slushy mix that could accumulate to an inch on local hills closer to the Puget Sound and a rain/snow mix or cold rain for areas near the water. I think everyone should see some snowflakes, though. Here’s the advisory:

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST
WEDNESDAY.

* 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE HOOD CANAL AREA.

* SNOW TOTALS WILL HIGHEST ABOVE 500 FEET.

* TOWNS ALONG HIGHWAY 101 WILL BE AFFECTED BY WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

Stay tuned for further updates,

~Matt

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Kinda sad our first “snow” of the season (which has really only been a series of pretty little snowflakes fluttering to the ground and then melting on impact…or at least that’s my “glass half empty” view of it) is happening a couple weeks before the official start of Spring, though meteorological Spring started a week ago.

Nevertheless, our first true cold front in what seems like forever moved into the area yesterday and we’ve been able to hang on to just enough cold air and have just enough “oomph” in the shower activity to literally yank the temperatures down to produce, like I mentioned earlier, pretty little snowflakes. Not every one is seeing this right now, though. The showers are widely scattered and more intense the farther south you go, like towards Tacoma/Puyallup.

So what’s next on the menu? Continued rain/snow showers today amounting to nothing, unless you happen to be under an intense snow shower in which case you may eke out a trace. But don’t come burning down my home if you don’t see anything at all! Highs will stay in the low 40s today…I don’t think we’ll make much progress in the high temperature department.

Skies will clear tonight in wake of an approaching weather system that will impact the area Tuesday afternoon. Now here’s the tricky part: temperatures will plunge tonight, dipping as low as the mid 20s in spots. If we can get enough cloud cover before sunrise tomorrow, we may just be able to keep the cold temperatures socked in before the precip arrives which, of course, would mean snow. If we have too many blasted sun breaks or an obnoxiously strong wind before the juicy stuff comes, then I think it’s pretty safe to say we struck out…again.

My best prediction is a rain/snow mix for Kitsap areas close to the water, but a more pronounced snow event right along the Hood Canal/Seabeck area as cold air is often hard to scour our without a significant wind to mix things up. Accumulations will be minor if they do occur, and by minor I mean an inch or less. We just don’t have enough cold air to last us through the whole event, so whatever does fall will quickly melt away. Highs will still be very cold in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

We slowly warm up to normal throughout the week, though the rain and clouds have decided to stick around for the heck of it. So I hope you enjoyed the BEAUTIFUL, GORGEOUS, MAGNIFICENT, SPECTACULAR weekend we had, because it may be a couple weeks before we get to have that again

Be safe out there!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? White-out conditions at your house? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

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**A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT highlighting an abrupt change to colder, more winter-like weather has been issued by the National Weather Service in Seattle. Read the statement here**

Uh-oh! Sound the alarms! And I KNOW many of you will: “I  heard that it was supposed to snow 2 feet on Tuesday!!!”

But please, for my sake, read the details and THEN proclaim to your family and friends the riveting news

The National Weather Service in Seattle (and myself) has been tracking a very cold series of weather systems headed for Washington State originating in the Gulf of Alaska. This is where we typically get our coldest, juiciest weather from (happen to remember December 2008?). While not nearly as juicy OR cold as December 08, we’ll get a brief taste of what winter is REALLY like around here with colder highs (low to mid 40s), colder lows (low to mid 30s) and the potential for some oh-look-that’s-really-pretty-but it’s-not sticking-to the roadways-so-school-is-still-open snow.

So, the details:

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with increasing rain and cooler temperatures. Kind of a typical Washington day, so let’s not dwell too much on THOSE details.

Monday will be pretty unsettled, but this will be the day to watch the East Puget Sound Lowlands and the “convergence zone” (north King/south Snohomish county line) for some wet snowfall. Precip and snowfall maps indicate moisture won’t be lacking and a small coating of snow is possible for the local hills in and around Seattle (not so much on our end, though. Precip doesn’t seem to want to shift westward). Highs will be much cooler in the low to mid 40s with partly sunny skies.

It’s the Monday night into Tuesday time frame that needs to be watched for the Hood Canal/Kitsap Peninsula area. Indeed, a more gracious slug of moisture combined with already borderline low temperatures (32-34) could produce some snowfall and even accumulation immediately along the Canal. Nothing huge, but certainly worth watching. Snow showers off and on are likely through the day Tuesday as highs will struggle to make it much beyond 40 degrees, but warmer weather will enter the picture Tuesday night through the end of the week.

So again, nothing extraordinary, but certainly exciting nonetheless considering our lack of lowland snowfall this winter.

Stay tuned to this blog for further updates!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

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This is EXACTLY what downtown Seattle will look like on Monday! (Psstt…just kidding. I can only dream…)

January and February have been incredibly dull winter months for weather enthusiasts and many of you have been asking when the next shot at some more interesting weather is to be expected. For the longest time I haven’t had a very encouraging answer, but weather models have recently converged on a much colder weather pattern evolving next week. In fact, it may be the coldest week we’ve experienced since…December! But sadly enough, that’s not saying a whole lot

Before we get to next week, let’s focus a bit on the weekend. Boy will it start out beautifully! Tomorrow will be warm and mostly sunny with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s (ok, maybe not WARM, but fairly mild!). Clouds will increase Saturday night resulting in a pretty cloudy Sunday. Rain chances will increase as the day wears on. Highs will be a good 10 or so degrees colder.

Monday will likely be the coldest day of the week with highs struggling to reach much beyond 40 degrees, which sounds ridiculously cold compared to the record warmth we’ve been experiencing. Any heavy downpours will yank the snow level down to 500′, so some hail and/or slushy snow on the local hills/Seabeck area/Green Mountain wouldn’t surprise me, though nothing will stick and it will be very brief. Still, it will be a cold, raw day no matter what.

We warm back up to normal (near 50 degrees) by mid week but cool off again, though not as dramatically, by the end of the week. The BEST news out of all of this is the mountain snow. If a convergence zone sets up Monday, not only will that area likely see slushy snow but the mountains will get a dumping. Yay!

So get out and enjoy the mild 60-degree weather tomorrow because you’ll be pulling out the mittens and heavy jackets come Monday!

Also, stay tuned for further updates. You all know how badly I want Monday to turn into some freak “Day After Tomorrow”-type blizzard, so keep those fingers crossed

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

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Earthquakes are not weather-related, in fact it’s the opposite—some weather events occur because of earthquakes, but I was fascinated by the above headline that MSN published today. Here is part of the news article:

“The massive 8.8 earthquake that struck Chile may have changed the entire Earth’s rotation and shortened the length of days on our planet, a NASA scientist said Monday. The quake, the seventh strongest earthquake in recorded history, hit Chile Saturday and should have shortened the length of an Earth day by 1.26 milliseconds, according to research scientist Richard Gross at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif.

“The computer model used by Gross and his colleagues to determine the effects of the Chile earthquake effect also found that it should have moved Earth’s figure axis by about 3 inches (8 cm or 27 milliarcseconds).” For the whole story, click here.

Key word being “should”, nevertheless this is truly an amazing story. While 3 inches and 1.26 milliseconds seem like small measurements, in the grand scheme of things it is pretty significant. Think about it: one earthquake has shortened the time we have each day, even if it’s only by 1.26 milliseconds. All the more reason to not waste time, because it’s slipping away…literally!

And now all eyes for a major earthquake are in the Pacific Northwest. Why? Really not for any reason other than the Earth has been very active lately, and the Pacific Northwest is a hot spot for earthquake activity with a dangerous fault line running right through downtown Seattle that is capable of triggering an earthquake 9.0 or larger, worst case scenario of course.

Though according to some scientists we are due for an earthquake in the near future, disaster would be much less devastating compared to the Haitian earthquake primarily because of the more sophisticated building codes we have here.

Please continue to keep those affected by the Haiti and Chile earthquakes in your prayers. There’s a lot of rebuilding to be done! Also, remember to be productive each day. You never know when another 1.26 milliseconds (or more!) gets knocked off the clock.

Have a great evening,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

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I was asked to be a judge for the Destination ImagiNation tournament at Klahowya this weekend for the “Rising Stars” (K-2) and absolutely LOVED IT. I never did D.I. growing up, but really wish I had. For those unfamiliar with it, this would be a good definition from the organization itself:

“Destination ImagiNation’s educational goals are to foster creative and critical thinking, to develop teamwork, collaboration and leadership skills, and to nurture research and inquiry skills involving both creative exploration and attention to detail”

As I mentioned previously, I had the privilege of watching the 6-8 year old age group present an 8 minute newscast/skit including certain subjects like weather, sports and current events. And can I just say—their presentations were adorable. They were all  creative, energetic and so, so smart!

Several of the team members included weather reports and I found it so funny they highlighted rain on Monday, clouds on Tuesday, a tornado on Wednesday, snow on Thursday, thunder and lightning on Friday but plain sunshine for the weekend. I also felt bad for one student who said in the middle of the forecast: “And Thursday it will snow…at least I hope so, but I don’t think it will. I miss the snow!  I haven’t seen snow forever!” And she was certainly right. We HAVEN’T seen snow in the lowlands since…last year! And that seems like forever.

Luckily, the little D.I. competitors aren’t going to be very accurate in their 7 day forecast predictions (and for that I took off 50 points. Just kidding!!) because the weather this week is shaping up to be quite pleasant, at least after tomorrow and Wednesday morning. Temperatures will remain in the 50s, but Thursday more generous amounts of sunshine will grace Kitsap County as highs jump into the upper 50s (maybe even a stray 60 degree reading?) which will last until Sunday when the weather will slowly deteriorate and rain/clouds enter the forecast again.

I certainly wish those D.I. teams were right about their crazy weather predictions this week. We’d actually have something exciting to talk about!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

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**NEW POLL: Who presented the best argument? Bill Nye or Joe Bastardi? Vote in the poll after watching the video!**

Global warming debates have always been fascinating to me, especially those that are intelligent, level-headed and full of statistics. I’m not a fan of name-calling. Luckily, I found this very interesting debate on man made global warming vs natural Earth cycles on YouTube from “The O’Reilly Factor”. It’s worth a look as both sides are evenly represented:

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Or maybe it really DID get to 8 degrees! No…it didn’t, but if you’ve been tracking the Bremerton National Airport’s temperature readings it has no doubt been surprising to see a string of “low temperatures” in the single digits, teens and 20s, particularly the 8 degree reading last night.

Well, among other technicalities that have skewed the low temperature data at the airport, it appears at a certain time during the night the current temperature disappears and what is recorded is the dew point, or rather simply the temperature at which air must be cooled to form dew. The dew point can often vary greatly from the actual temperature, though 8 degrees is still a bit extreme.

According to officials at the airport, getting this bug fixed is a work in progress, but until then just stick to your outdoor thermometers It’s pretty fun to look at the temperature graphs in the Kitsap Sun, though—it looks like a roller coaster!

Speaking of which, the weather this week will go through ups and downs of its own as tomorrow will continue the theme of clouds and showers with partly sunny skies continuing Thursday. Rain returns briefly Friday before *another dry weekend* makes an encore. Rain returns next week.

Highs for the rest of the week will stay in the low to mid 50s, so pretty close to normal.

Stay classy, Kitsap,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

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