Comments on: Bremerton Ferry Tickets, Con’t. http://pugetsoundblogs.com/bremertonbeat/2009/06/24/bremerton-ferry-tickets-cont/ Kitsap Sun staff who live in Bremerton write about the community, the rebirth of downtown and housing issues. Wed, 31 Mar 2010 14:41:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Bob Meadows http://pugetsoundblogs.com/bremertonbeat/2009/06/24/bremerton-ferry-tickets-cont/comment-page-1/#comment-4801 Bob Meadows Fri, 03 Jul 2009 17:03:28 +0000 http://pugetsoundblogs.com/bremertonbeat/?p=1151#comment-4801 David, If you read the introduction to the WSDOT annual traffic report for 2007 (the first link I posted in the comment above), you will see that the ferry landings have "automated data collection stations." If you then go to page 6, you'll find the "FY06" identification code for Bremerton and FY07 code for Winslow. (FY apparently stands for ferry, not fiscal year.) Then go to page 20 and you'll find the counts for weekdays and weekends for the FY06 and FY07 ferry landings. It appears that for some period of time during the year WSDOT has some kind of mechanism for making an actual count of vehicles using the ferries. I don't see in the report any indication that this automated system works every day. It may be used to obtain a representative sample from which to make a reasonably reliable estimate of daily averages and annual totals. The question is not just what provides the "actual count" shown in that traffic report. The question is: What data does WSDOT/WSF use to determine ridership on each ferry route when making decisions about service levels? You've reported that they don't act like evil people and intentionally cheat Bremerton. What a relief! Now, ask them what they, as nice, honorable people, use as their factual basis for making rational decisions about service levels. They appear to have two sources of data--the apparently mistake-ridden ticket sales records and some sort of "automated data collection" system. How reliable does each one appear to be? How do they resolve the apparent contradiction between the two, which apparently involves many thousands of vehicles? If they are making rational decisions about service levels, the answers ought to be easy to provide. They would have already been locating their data, figuring out how to resolve the conflicts, and making decisions based on their best judgment. David,

If you read the introduction to the WSDOT annual traffic report for 2007 (the first link I posted in the comment above), you will see that the ferry landings have “automated data collection stations.” If you then go to page 6, you’ll find the “FY06″ identification code for Bremerton and FY07 code for Winslow. (FY apparently stands for ferry, not fiscal year.) Then go to page 20 and you’ll find the counts for weekdays and weekends for the FY06 and FY07 ferry landings.

It appears that for some period of time during the year WSDOT has some kind of mechanism for making an actual count of vehicles using the ferries. I don’t see in the report any indication that this automated system works every day. It may be used to obtain a representative sample from which to make a reasonably reliable estimate of daily averages and annual totals.

The question is not just what provides the “actual count” shown in that traffic report.

The question is: What data does WSDOT/WSF use to determine ridership on each ferry route when making decisions about service levels?

You’ve reported that they don’t act like evil people and intentionally cheat Bremerton. What a relief!

Now, ask them what they, as nice, honorable people, use as their factual basis for making rational decisions about service levels.

They appear to have two sources of data–the apparently mistake-ridden ticket sales records and some sort of “automated data collection” system.

How reliable does each one appear to be?

How do they resolve the apparent contradiction between the two, which apparently involves many thousands of vehicles?

If they are making rational decisions about service levels, the answers ought to be easy to provide. They would have already been locating their data, figuring out how to resolve the conflicts, and making decisions based on their best judgment.

]]> By: David Nelson http://pugetsoundblogs.com/bremertonbeat/2009/06/24/bremerton-ferry-tickets-cont/comment-page-1/#comment-4788 David Nelson Fri, 03 Jul 2009 01:01:06 +0000 http://pugetsoundblogs.com/bremertonbeat/?p=1151#comment-4788 Bob -- We've been asking WSF about where specifically the traffic count comes from, it's a good question. Ed Friedrich has a few calls in, and after being passed around a bit he was told that the person who knows will be in Monday. Hopefully we get that answer soon, and we'll let everybody know. -David Bob –
We’ve been asking WSF about where specifically the traffic count comes from, it’s a good question. Ed Friedrich has a few calls in, and after being passed around a bit he was told that the person who knows will be in Monday. Hopefully we get that answer soon, and we’ll let everybody know.

-David

]]> By: Bob Meadows http://pugetsoundblogs.com/bremertonbeat/2009/06/24/bremerton-ferry-tickets-cont/comment-page-1/#comment-4591 Bob Meadows Thu, 25 Jun 2009 01:21:08 +0000 http://pugetsoundblogs.com/bremertonbeat/?p=1151#comment-4591 That's probably correct. Unless traffic is really miserable, many people would choose to drive back through Tacoma rather than pay for one or more passengers in the vehicle. I hadn't thought of that, even though it seemed to me that the difference between 1100 a day from Bremerton and 1000 a day from Seattle was a little high if it only resulted from people choosing not to wait in Seattle at the ferry dock for the next ferry to Bremerton. Good catch! That’s probably correct. Unless traffic is really miserable, many people would choose to drive back through Tacoma rather than pay for one or more passengers in the vehicle. I hadn’t thought of that, even though it seemed to me that the difference between 1100 a day from Bremerton and 1000 a day from Seattle was a little high if it only resulted from people choosing not to wait in Seattle at the ferry dock for the next ferry to Bremerton. Good catch!

]]> By: Edward Cable http://pugetsoundblogs.com/bremertonbeat/2009/06/24/bremerton-ferry-tickets-cont/comment-page-1/#comment-4589 Edward Cable Thu, 25 Jun 2009 01:08:20 +0000 http://pugetsoundblogs.com/bremertonbeat/?p=1151#comment-4589 Bob, In response to your last question - an alternate explanation behind why more vehicles would go from Bremerton than return to Bremerton could be the fact that it's much more economical to drive from Seattle to Bremerton (especially if one has a number of passengers with them) If one does have to take a car to Seattle it makes sense to drive on the ferry from Bremerton (only have to pay for the car, no passengers, and can avoid the toll on Tacoma Narrows Bridge) and then for the return to Bremerton (don't have to pay the toll for bridge, and if driving on ferry would have to pay for the car and passengers). Bob,

In response to your last question – an alternate explanation behind why more vehicles would go from Bremerton than return to Bremerton could be the fact that it’s much more economical to drive from Seattle to Bremerton (especially if one has a number of passengers with them) If one does have to take a car to Seattle it makes sense to drive on the ferry from Bremerton (only have to pay for the car, no passengers, and can avoid the toll on Tacoma Narrows Bridge) and then for the return to Bremerton (don’t have to pay the toll for bridge, and if driving on ferry would have to pay for the car and passengers).

]]> By: Bob Meadows http://pugetsoundblogs.com/bremertonbeat/2009/06/24/bremerton-ferry-tickets-cont/comment-page-1/#comment-4578 Bob Meadows Wed, 24 Jun 2009 22:27:18 +0000 http://pugetsoundblogs.com/bremertonbeat/?p=1151#comment-4578 After writing the comment above, I realized that I didn't have to double the Winslow ferry landing "actual count" daily average; so it must have been a count of vehicles going and coming. I looked again at the WSDOT annual traffic report and found that the Bremerton ferry landing has 2 different numbers--the one on page 174 of the pdf file showing vehicles departing Bremerton that I had noticed (1100), and another on the next page that refers only to vehicles departing the ferry landing at Bremerton and going onto SR 304 (1000). My estimate of the Bremerton run's vehicles based on "actual counts" of vehicles should then be: 1100+1000=2100 daily average; and 2100X365=766,500 annual total. Compare that "actual count" estimate to the annual total for vehicles in the WSF report based on ticket sales (734,378). It appears that roughly 30,000 vehicles a year are reported as using the Bainbridge run based on ticket sales data when they may actually be using the Bremerton run based on "actual count" estimates. Why would more vehicles go from Bremerton than return to Bremerton on the same run? Probably because anyone who misses the Bremerton ferry in Seattle simply takes the next Bainbridge Island ferry rather than wait for an hour or more for the next Bremerton ferry. After writing the comment above, I realized that I didn’t have to double the Winslow ferry landing “actual count” daily average; so it must have been a count of vehicles going and coming. I looked again at the WSDOT annual traffic report and found that the Bremerton ferry landing has 2 different numbers–the one on page 174 of the pdf file showing vehicles departing Bremerton that I had noticed (1100), and another on the next page that refers only to vehicles departing the ferry landing at Bremerton and going onto SR 304 (1000).

My estimate of the Bremerton run’s vehicles based on “actual counts” of vehicles should then be: 1100+1000=2100 daily average; and 2100X365=766,500 annual total. Compare that “actual count” estimate to the annual total for vehicles in the WSF report based on ticket sales (734,378).

It appears that roughly 30,000 vehicles a year are reported as using the Bainbridge run based on ticket sales data when they may actually be using the Bremerton run based on “actual count” estimates.

Why would more vehicles go from Bremerton than return to Bremerton on the same run? Probably because anyone who misses the Bremerton ferry in Seattle simply takes the next Bainbridge Island ferry rather than wait for an hour or more for the next Bremerton ferry.

]]> By: Bob Meadows http://pugetsoundblogs.com/bremertonbeat/2009/06/24/bremerton-ferry-tickets-cont/comment-page-1/#comment-4576 Bob Meadows Wed, 24 Jun 2009 21:49:06 +0000 http://pugetsoundblogs.com/bremertonbeat/?p=1151#comment-4576 The article said WSF claimed not to be making decisions based on the ticket sales data, but didn't say what WSF actually claims to use. Compare the traffic count estimates based on "actual counts" for vehicles boarding in Bremerton and for vehicles departing the ferry in Winslow to the WSF ridership numbers for 2007. The WSDOT traffic count is here: http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/mapsdata/tdo/PDF_and_ZIP_Files/Annual_Traffic_Report_2007.pdf The WSF vehicle numbers are here: http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/ferries/traffic_stats/annualpdf/2007.pdf The estimates based on actual counts show daily averages of 1100 vehicles departing Bremerton (and apparently no count from the Seattle side--at least, not that I found). Double that to estimate the total number of vehicles going both ways and multiply by 365 to get a total vehicle count estimate of 803,000 for the Bremerton-Seattle "run." Likewise, the Bainbridge Island run has an estimate based on an actual count of vehicles departing the ferry and going on SR 305. It is a daily average of 5600. That is 2,044,000 when multiplied by 365. The WSF numbers are bigger for Bainbridge and smaller for Bremerton. For the Seattle-Bremerton run it is 734,378 versus the "actual count" estimate of 803,000. For the Bainbridge-Seattle run it is 2,070,386 versus the "actual count" estimate of 2,044,000. Whatever WSF uses to measure the number of vehicles using each run, it appears that several tens of thousands of vehicles are not "counted" for Bremerton and several tens of thousands of vehicles are claimed for Bainbridge that don't show up in the "actual count." It would be nice to find out precisely what WSF claims to use in determining levels of service, since that is the point raised by those who complain about the inaccurate ticket sales records. If they don't rely on ticket sales data, what do they use? Your article didn't say. The article said WSF claimed not to be making decisions based on the ticket sales data, but didn’t say what WSF actually claims to use.

Compare the traffic count estimates based on “actual counts” for vehicles boarding in Bremerton and for vehicles departing the ferry in Winslow to the WSF ridership numbers for 2007.

The WSDOT traffic count is here:
http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/mapsdata/tdo/PDF_and_ZIP_Files/Annual_Traffic_Report_2007.pdf

The WSF vehicle numbers are here:
http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/ferries/traffic_stats/annualpdf/2007.pdf

The estimates based on actual counts show daily averages of 1100 vehicles departing Bremerton (and apparently no count from the Seattle side–at least, not that I found). Double that to estimate the total number of vehicles going both ways and multiply by 365 to get a total vehicle count estimate of 803,000 for the Bremerton-Seattle “run.”

Likewise, the Bainbridge Island run has an estimate based on an actual count of vehicles departing the ferry and going on SR 305. It is a daily average of 5600. That is 2,044,000 when multiplied by 365.

The WSF numbers are bigger for Bainbridge and smaller for Bremerton. For the Seattle-Bremerton run it is 734,378 versus the “actual count” estimate of 803,000. For the Bainbridge-Seattle run it is 2,070,386 versus the “actual count” estimate of 2,044,000.

Whatever WSF uses to measure the number of vehicles using each run, it appears that several tens of thousands of vehicles are not “counted” for Bremerton and several tens of thousands of vehicles are claimed for Bainbridge that don’t show up in the “actual count.”

It would be nice to find out precisely what WSF claims to use in determining levels of service, since that is the point raised by those who complain about the inaccurate ticket sales records. If they don’t rely on ticket sales data, what do they use? Your article didn’t say.

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