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A silly car analogy I thought up on the spot: If the average MLB offense were a Ford Focus, the Seattle Mariners would be a 70s Datsun B210 entered in the KDDA Destruction Derby. Seriously, they’re not even street legal.

When I made the prediction that the Mariners would win the AL West this year, I did so on the basis that our pitching and defense was able to overcome any deficiencies on offense. Well, I didn’t expect the M’s offense to be completely sterile. I didn’t foresee them scoring just 21 runs in their first eight games. That’s just under 3 runs per game if you’re counting at home.

The Mariners home opener featured several of the greats in pregame: Randy Johnson throwing out the first pitch and posing with Dan Wilson, Edgar, Griffey, and Jay Buhner.

A sellout crowd then proceeded to watch a decent start by Ryan Rowland-Smith, who gave up four runs thanks in part to some amazing defensive plays. The only problem was offense and it was abysmal. The Mariners totaled two hits and zero runs. Need I say more?

So am I going back on my prediction? Not yet. The season is young, but the prospects aren’t looking too good at the moment.

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The 2010 MLB season is officially under way. I’ve taken the time to examine the first few Mariners games and studied their off season transactions to determine my current assessment of the team. Below is my analysis and prediction for this season.

The Mariners have really stirred the snow globe in the off season this year, in their hopes to improve the competitiveness of the team. They finally fired GM Bill Bavasi (Responsible for bringing in Richie Sexson, drafting Morrow instead of Lincecum AKA Mitch Kramer and several other unthinkable moves) and brought in one Jack Zduriencik.

Zduriencik was the first critical move for the Mariners and the source of the shaking up. Under his guidance the Mariners made the following moves/signings in the off season:

- Resigning Felix Hernandez to a 5 year, $78 million contract. This solidified one of the best pitchers in the the majors as the Mariners #1 starter.

- Acquiring Cliff Lee from the Phillies for three prospects. This gives us a former Cy Young winner as our #2 starting pitcher. Lee, however, has been injured for the first part of this season.

- Signing All Star third baseman Chone Figgins. Figs currently plays second base and shores up our infield.

- Trading Carlos Silva for Milton Bradley. This was more about getting rid of the cancer that was Carlos Silva. Honestly, I would’ve been happy with a trade for a sack of baseballs and the Cubs’ ballgirl.

Instead, we take a chance with Milton, who is known to be hot-headed and a distraction. They’re spinning it as a “fresh start,” which I think is fair. He does have some talent, but the question is if it can be channeled correctly. Cue Don Wakamatsu.

- Resigning Ken Griffey, Jr. He’s a fan favorite, though his production is questionable. I can’t say no to Griffey being on the team.

These signings give us one of the best starting pitching lineups in the majors behind the Red Sox and Y*nkees (arguably). We’ve also had some impressive performances from newcomers Matt Tuiasosopo and Casey Cotchman in the preseason and first few games.

In terms of defense and pitching, I think the M’s are solid. The real question mark is on offense. Ichiro is always solid, but no one else is really proven to be a consistent threat with the bat.

Predictions:

A.L. West Final Standings: 1 – Mariners, 2 – Rangers, 3 – Angels, 4 – Athletics

I think it’s going to be close between the Rangers and M’s. Sure, Seattle is currently 1-2, but those two losses were so close and away games. I’m a defense/pitching kind of guy and since we have the edge, I’ll call it for them. I see that as being the most consistent threat to win games. The Angels have lost too much talent, though they did get Hideki Matsui, who I think is better than most give him credit for.

This will be Griffey’s last season as a professional baseball player. I just don’t see Griffey being able to contribute consistently after this year. He’s already playing sparingly and almost didn’t come back this year. Cherish it while you can, Mariner fans.

Felix Hernandez will again finish 2nd in the AL Cy Young race. He has the talent to win, but consider 2 factors: East coast bias in voting and the strength of the AL East. Both the Sox and the Y*nkees have stronger bats in their lineup, which helps their starting pitchers chances of winning more games. I think the winner will be either CC Sabathia (NY) or Josh Beckett (Bos).

The only turd in this punch bowl theory is that the KC Royals Zack Greinke won last with only 16 wins. Maybe there is hope…

The Mariners lose in the first round of the playoffs. Unless they make improvements to their offense, I can’t see them going far in the playoffs. As we haven’t made the playoffs since 2003, our experience is also a factor in this prediction.

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Content Copyright 2010 by Chadrick Ashby

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Ken Griffey, Jr. Circa 1995

Ken Griffey, Jr. is no doubt one of the most talented, iconic and famed athletes in northwest sports history. From his debut in 1989 to his departure in 1999, he helped energize and save baseball in Seattle. He lead the team to their first ever playoff appearance in 1995, won the MLB MVP award in 1997 and won ten Gold Glove Awards, among other accolades.

According to Yahoo Sports, Griffey earned an additional $1.15 million in bonuses from playing time and home attendance on top of the $2 million in base salary in his 2009 Seattle return. Griffey said he was going home to his family in Florida to discuss whether to play again in 2010 or retire. He has been quoted as saying there’s no reason other than his family that he should retire.

Another question: Should Junior retire? Its tough to say. One has to consider three essential factors: 1) his physical ability 2) team leadership/experience and 3) fan appeal.

Here are his stats from last year:

As you can see above, Griffey’s ability to contribute hits, runs and RBIs is certainly questionable at best. In order to compete with the Angels in the AL West, we’re going to need more production out of the DH/LF position. Griffey could get better in offseason, but how much?

Griffey’s experience and team leadership are simply unparalleled, however (see above or read this). His ability to lead and teach younger players are equally essential to a clubhouse.  As the Sun’s Kirby Arnold points out, it’d be great to see Griffey play for a team that can compete for a playoff berth. If the Mariners are indeed in an actual playoff race, which is very possible, they would benefit from what Griffey has to offer.

The third component is fan appeal, or his ability to fill seats and sell merchandise. As I mentioned above, he did receive bonuses for the increased attendance and product sales in 2009. From my perspective, I made a concerted effort to attend more Mariners simply to see Griffey play again. Yes, I also bought a Griffey shirt.

I’d like to see the Kid back for one last hoorah. Despite his dwindling production, I think that his ability to inspire both the Locker room and the crowd brings intangible value. He brings excitement back to the program again. Most of all, I just have trouble letting go of my boyhood idol. Here’s one more!

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